Recently, the spot price of PTA has been rising continuously, the new high has been continuously, and the market has shown great potential. It has undoubtedly become the chemical product with the highest market attention in the near future. For the rapid change of the polyester industry chain at this stage, our main points are as follows: PX strongly promotes PTA Bull market as a near-oil chemical, PX price fluctuations are usually synchronized with oil prices, but recently PX is significantly higher than crude oil, we believe that there are three main reasons: 1) exchange rate factors; 2) Japan and South Korea refinery price, China private The refining and chemical project will make more profit before it is put into production; 3) the refining will reduce the load, and the price of naphtha will rise to PX. The above three factors will push up the PX price. From the perspective of the change in the profit of the industrial chain, the profit of the PX unit will increase in time. The top is ahead of PTA and the range is better than PTA. We judge that PX strongly promotes PTA bull market.
PTA, ultra-low stock of filaments, low PTA social inventory innovation, the current 750,000 tons of PTA social inventory is the only ultra-low inventory in history. PTA July maintenance device 4.4 million tons, exacerbating the PTA spot tension; if Fuhua remaining 150 Ten thousand tons of PTA equipment can not resume production, 18/19 years will become the vacuum period of PTA capacity, polyester will continue to be put into production, and PTA supply will be more tense. Polyester filament stock is also at a low level. POY becomes the lowest inventory of filament products. The most profitable variety, this is due to the particularly large expansion of the 17/18 texturing machine, which leads to the DTY profit being less than POY. Regarding the price acceptance of PTA for polyester products, we believe that from the perspective of price chain transmission in the industrial chain, Close to the terminal, the price will be more stable, and the price transmission needs to have a slow conduction process. If the PTA continues to rise, the mentality of the downstream polyester enterprises will undoubtedly occur, from the contradiction of high-priced PTA to the tightening of production, so as to prevent PTA from continuing to increase prices.
Pay attention to the demand for terminal weaving. Due to environmental protection factors, the water jet loom in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is facing production stoppage or transfer. Before the looms are shut down or transferred, there is a situation in which the looting time is rushed to start construction. To some extent, the subsequent demand is converted into a part in advance. Grey cloth inventory. Whether the subsequent end consumption can digest the grey cloth inventory is worthy of attention.
Considering that PTA 2019 is a new capacity vacuum period, even if the demand margin is weak, the pressure is not great.
This week's investment opinion: In the recent performance of the industry chain spread, PX is the most eye-catching variety, the profit of the naphtha route PX is increased to 900 yuan / ton, and the profit of PTA has also expanded. Recommended Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Hengli Shares, Tongkun shares (basic chemical coverage).