Recently, PTA, which has been quiet for several years, has become the 'new net red' of chemical products. Since the price of 5800 yuan/ton has started, it has opened a wave of bullish market. In just a few days, the PTA spot has risen to 7300. The nearby price, while the PTA futures 1809 contract rose to a maximum of 7116 yuan / ton. After four years, PTA finally stood 7,000 yuan / ton again, the reason, there is the support of crude oil costs, there are speculative funds, there are The improvement of the production cycle will bring about the repair of processing fees, and the demand for new capacity in the downstream polyester industry will rise. The following is a small series for you.
Industry chain processing fees rose
First, there is a certain seasonality in the fluctuation of naphtha processing fees. Summer is the peak season for refined oil consumption. Although crude oil is still strong, the naphtha processing fee is quickly restored from the June low of $50/ton to $120/ton. Secondly, driven by PX domestic and international equipment supply and high-speed growth of PTA production, PX processing fees rebounded to a high of US$450/ton in the past three years. Finally, due to low inventory and multiple installation maintenance expectations, PTA processing fee is 600 yuan/ The ton rose to 1,100 yuan / ton.
Cost side gives favorable support to the PTA market
Recently, not only PTA, but also the price of upstream PX has risen. As of August 6, Asia PX has risen to 1127.87-1129.47 USD/ton, and the monthly increase has reached 45.34 USD/ton. Currently, PX price has risen to 46. At the high point of the month, the cost side gives favorable support to the PTA market.
Boost of the futures market
On August 8th, the price of PTA1809 closed at 6950 yuan/barrel. Since June 20th, the price of PTA1809 has risen from the low point of 5546 yuan/barrel all the way to the highest value of 7116 yuan/barrel on August 7. To prevent excessive speculation, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced on the evening of the 7th that since the settlement on August 9, 2018, the PTA futures 1809 contract trading margin standard was adjusted to 10%, and the price limit was adjusted to 6%. The trading margin standard implemented according to the rules and the increase If the limit of the daily limit is higher than the above criteria, it will still be implemented according to the original regulations.
Equipment overhaul and new downstream capacity
This year, domestic polyester production capacity has increased by 4 million tons, while domestic PTA capacity has not expanded, the market supply and demand fundamentals are in a relatively tight balance stage, and polyester companies will still have nearly 2.4 million tons of capacity in the second half of the year, although Fuhua Its 1.5 million tons of PTA plant is expected to be launched in the fourth quarter, but there are still many uncertainties, so this year's PTA supply and demand side will be in a tight pattern, which will form a strong support for the market. In addition to the recent partial PTA plant overhaul, the market supply is tightening. Therefore, the sharp rise in PTA prices seems to be understandable.
The current industry benefits have been digested in advance, the processing fee of the whole industry chain has been restored to a higher level, and the raw material terminal surges to stimulate the terminal to continue to replenish a large number of reserves for the peak season, and the demand for overdraft will be increased. Negative feedback will come. In the context of the appreciation of the US dollar and trade friction, some countries in the Eurozone have taken the initiative to contract, and several major countries in South America have experienced sovereign currency crises. If the crisis spreads further, the impact of the PTA industry will be further amplified.