After the 531 PV new deal, the entire photovoltaic industry was mourned, and the stock prices of listed companies plummeted. From now on, the release of pessimism is basically completed, so what impact will this bring to the enterprise and the industry, and investors should What to pay attention to?
On May 31, 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018". The notice pointed out that the scale of the construction of ordinary photovoltaic power plants in 2018 will not be arranged. Before issuing the documents to start the construction of ordinary power stations, all localities should not arrange the construction of ordinary power stations that require state subsidies. Standardize the development of distributed photovoltaics. This year, about 10 million kilowatts will be arranged to support the construction of distributed photovoltaic projects. The grid-connected electricity price of photovoltaic power plants is reduced by 0.05 yuan per kWh. The on-grid tariffs of Class I, Class II and Class III resource areas are adjusted to 0.5 yuan per kWh, 0.6 yuan, 0.7 yuan.
'5·31 New Deal' is called 'the most stringent PV policy in history', which directly accelerates the subsidy of the photovoltaic industry. The photovoltaic enterprises will never return by subsidies. Many PV companies have planned to lay off employees and cut production.
The reporter contacted a number of domestic PV companies. Enterprises have talked about the new PV policy, but they are not convenient to face the lens. They believe that this policy has a great impact on the operation of the company. It is not a problem of falling profits, but a problem of survival. Especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, it is very likely that they will not be able to continue. However, some insiders said that as of the end of May this year, the cumulative subsidy gap for new energy in China was about 120 billion yuan. The money is not enough, and only subsidies can be reduced or subsidies will continue to be owed.
Liu Shuai, a new energy analyst at UBS Securities, said that I think the government’s short-term adjustment is also a last resort because of this financial pressure. At the same time, they also hope that they can accelerate the process of subsidizing the industry. One of the high hopes that I have placed, I think, so I think that the short-term pain may be in exchange for our long-term sustainable development.
Liu Shuai believes that after the introduction of the New Deal in June, the average price of the entire industry chain fell by about 20%, which is basically the cost reduction space of the previous years, and this will also make the PV parity online, is expected to be at the end of next year. At present, the cost of electricity for large-scale photovoltaic power plants can be controlled within 0.4 yuan, and a few can be close to 0.3 yuan. If the cost of electricity is controlled at 0.3 yuan at the end of next year, it is equivalent to thermal power, and the whole industry will be healthier and faster. development of.
However, in the short to medium term, the profits of PV companies will decline significantly. Second- and third-tier enterprises have already experienced the shutdown of production capacity and the dismissal of employees. Like Jiangxi PV giant Xuyang Reddy has been completely shut down, arrears of employee wages and social security, and Hareon Solar is exploded. The Wuxi factory has dismissed employees, industrial integration, and the elimination of outdated production capacity will accelerate. Enterprises with technological and scale advantages will gain greater market share. At the same time, the price decline will further stimulate the demand of overseas markets. 1-18 of 2018 In the month, the total export volume of China's battery chips and components was US$5.513 billion, up 21.24% year-on-year; the export volume of components was about 16 to 17GW, up more than 30% year-on-year.
In the capital market, the share price of related PV companies fell sharply due to the impact of the New Deal. Since June 1st, Tongwei shares have fallen 59%, Zhonglai shares have fallen 54%, Longji shares, Foster and solar energy, respectively. 36%, 32% and 26%.
UBS, new energy analyst of UBS Securities: The impact of this policy, we estimate the impact on the actual profitability of the industry or the profit rate this year, should be a level below 30%. But the market value adjustment is More than 50%, so I think this market may be overly worried about this. In fact, this year, enterprises, especially for leading companies, their profitability is actually very limited, so I think this is a fall. Come out with a good one at the bottom.