Foreword: The global PV market is 'decentralized', Wang Bohua believes that 'not pessimistic about the global market'. According to the statistics of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, although India is the country with the largest export volume of photovoltaic cells and components in China, China's PV is the main The export market is also accelerating the transfer to emerging markets such as Australia, Mexico, Pakistan, and Brazil. For example, Trina Solar has just entered into a partnership with Vietnam's largest private PV project to supply 258 MW of PERC single-crystal double-glass components. .
On July 30, local time, the Indian Ministry of Finance and Taxation officially announced that, according to the final recommendation of the General Administration of Trade and Relief of India, the solar battery (whether packaged as a component or not) will be subject to a 25% guarantee tariff for two years. In one year (to the end of July 2019), the tax rate is 25%. In the first half of the second year, the tax rate will drop to 20%, and in the second half of the year, it will be reduced to 15%.
In addition, if there is an anti-dumping duty in the future, the corresponding tariff will be deducted from the tax rate after the anti-dumping duty.
How big is the Indian market?
'In 2017, India's new solar power grid capacity reached 8.04GW. According to the Indian fiscal year, this figure was raised to 10.03GW. In the first half of this year, the new grid connection was close to 6GW. 'Cao Junru, an analyst at Jibang New Energy Research Center It is pointed out that as of the end of June, the total amount of solar grids connected to India reached 24 GW. According to the plan of the Indian government, the installed capacity will target 100 GW targets around 2020.
As the second largest component demanding country in the world after China, PV InfoLink's latest statistics show that after China's '531 New Deal', India's component demand accounted for 13.6% of the world's total. According to the statistics of China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, this year 1 -In May, China's PV products exports totaled US$7.444 billion, up 31.8% year-on-year. India is the largest market for China's battery chips and components, accounting for more than 90% of the market.
According to customs data, China's exports to India in the first half of the year were about 3.59GW, and battery exports exceeded 700MW. Although component exports have declined year-on-year, India's dependence on China remains high.
Does the tariff effect have geometry?
In fact, India has initiated anti-dumping investigations for a long time. Wang Bohua, secretary general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, analyzed the 'brief timeline': In 2012, India announced anti-dumping investigations on solar cells in China, the United States and other countries, and closed the case two years later; In 2017, India again declared an anti-dumping duty and terminated the investigation the following year; it was launched again on July 16 this year and finally levied.
'In the past eight years, the concentration of China's PV products export market has continued to decline, and the blooming situation of emerging markets has continued to expand. 'Wang Bohua believes that 'the facts prove that trade protection is not the way out.'
Many people believe that India’s implementation of safeguards tariff measures will affect the enthusiasm of China’s PV products for export to India to a certain extent, and reduce shipments and profits. However, India’s domestic battery and module production capacity is insufficient, and it still needs to rely on a large number of imports, tariffs. Too high will lower the installed capacity of its own market and push up the construction cost of photovoltaic power plants. '
Industry analysts also predict that the Indian market will shrink. 'India is facing stagnant demand for electricity, financial regulation and other issues, this tariff policy will deteriorate this situation to some extent. 'Cao Junru analysis, India's component demand in the second half of the year Shrinking to 2.4GW-3.5GW, the annual demand will drop to 8.5GW-9.6GW.
'The purpose of the new tariff policy in India is very obvious, in order to protect its local production capacity, which is relatively backward in terms of quality, scale and price. 'Cao Junru believes that with the implementation of '5 ̇31 New Deal', domestic PV product prices are falling, and Continued excess capacity needs to find a seaport. 'This makes China's components even more 25% tariff, and also has certain competitiveness in the Indian market, weakening the protection of tariffs.'
According to PV InfoLink statistics, the current domestic production capacity of India's own components is about 6GW, and the cell production capacity is about 2.5GW. Cao Junru pointed out: 'In the context of insufficient local production capacity and lack of competitiveness in quality and price, 25% of tariffs will impact Indian domestic market demand. '
What about Chinese companies?
'The new tariff policy will definitely affect the pace of Chinese PV companies entering the Indian market, but the main part of the global PV industry chain is in China. This hardware condition has not changed.' Zhang Shiguo, vice chairman and secretary general of the New Energy Overseas Development Alliance, pointed out that In the international market to increase the intensity of the layout, taking into account trade and investment, 'must disperse the country, can not be excessive concentration.'
In fact, the global PV market is being 'decentralized', and Wang Bohua believes that 'not pessimistic about the global market'. According to China PV Industry Association statistics, although India is the country with the largest export volume of photovoltaic cells and components in China, China's photovoltaic industry Major export markets are also accelerating the transfer to emerging markets such as Australia, Mexico, Pakistan, and Brazil. For example, Trina Solar has recently entered into a partnership with Vietnam's largest private PV project to supply 258 MW of PERC single crystal glass. Component.
In addition, enterprises directly build factories in India to expand production capacity, which can avoid the impact of taxation. Some PV leading enterprises have already built factories in Southeast Asia a few years ago. India is a key area, and tariffs have little impact on these enterprises.
In addition, the new tax increase policy is mainly aimed at China and Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand's photovoltaic products will have a new competitive advantage in the Indian market in the future. China's PV companies are starting to supply the Indian market from Vietnam and Thailand, thus eliminating tariff restrictions.
'In 2017, Trina Solar's battery capacity in Vietnam is around 1GW. Our factory in Thailand also has 1GW of cell capacity and 750MW of module capacity last year. 'Tianhe Guangneng Vice President Yin Rongfang said that In response to the US 'double anti-', Vietnam, Thailand's products are mainly supplied to European and American markets, and now will take full advantage of this advantage to serve the Indian market and broaden the global sales layout. Combined with the famous Indian energy industry consulting company BridgetoIndia data, 2016 Trina Solar's market share in India exceeds 25%. In 2017, Trina Solar's component shipments in the Indian market exceeded 1.5GW.
Zhang Shiguo also stressed that China's PV industry should pay more attention to comprehensive service capabilities in the process of overseas investment. 'To properly expand with local partners, invest in power stations, do engineering contractors, get involved in energy services, and put more in the industry chain. Multi-link transfer to overseas. '