On August 6, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that since the night trading on the evening of August 7, the 1809 contract transaction fee standard for methanol futures, the PTA futures 1809 contract transaction fee and the daily trading fee standard for the postal period have been increased. For each hand 6 yuan. The previous day, Zheng Shang issued a risk warning letter, the recent methanol, PTA market price fluctuations, investment should be rational.
In the past more than a month, the methanol and PTA markets have been turbulent and have become the 'double arrogance' of the futures market. On August 6, the PTA main contract 1809 rose to 7068 yuan / ton, rising to a new high in 4 years. Affected by this, The price of the ester industry chain also broke through the high level in the past three years. On the same day, the methanol futures contracts 1809 and 1901 closed at 3225 points and 3283 points respectively, with an increase of 5.29% and 4.09% respectively. The same is very bullish. Under the price transmission, PTA and The downstream company of methanol is called bitter.
The reporter interviewed a number of industry insiders learned that methanol, PTA futures are currently hot, in addition to the actual market demand, does not rule out artificial speculation, and the market outlook is uncertain. Zheng Shang is now alerting, and increase transaction fees, it can be said that time.
Hu Xin, manager of the Chemicals Department of the Investment and Research Department of the German Futures Industry, said that the current price of methanol has risen. The direct reason is that the depreciation of the RMB has led to a change in the methanol valuation system. The fundamental reason is that the market supply and demand are tightly balanced, the inventory is low and the stocks are low. It is reported that methanol experienced a major overhaul of domestic and foreign installations from March to May. In early July, it suffered from Guanzhong, and the environmental protection of Shandong Province, which has caused a significant increase in domestic supply. In terms of exchange rate, RMB exchange rate The US dollar exchange rate broke through 6.2 from the end of March this year to 6.9 on August 3, and the depreciation rate exceeded 10%. According to estimates, only RMB depreciation will raise the PTA price to over RMB 400/ton. In addition, in recent years In Southeast Asia, the demand for methanol in India and other places has grown rapidly. The total amount of methanol imported from China has been declining year by year since 2016. The supply contraction and rising demand will inevitably lead to a sharp price. The reason for the rise in PTA prices is exactly the same.
Insiders pointed out that it is still to be investigated whether the price of methanol and PTA has fully fulfilled the future expectation, but it has caused any inhibition or even injury to the entire industrial chain. However, it is an indisputable fact. Under this situation, investors are advised. Rationally participate in related futures trading, do not emotionally chase up and fall.
'There has been a message from the polyester bottle factory. As the price of raw material PTA has risen too much, the bottle device has begun to reduce the load. 'Huatai Futures Energy Analyst Yu Yongjun said. In addition, the reporter also from Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province, Haining City The Chamber of Commerce Industry, and Wujin, Changzhou, Jiangsu, Changshu Warp Knitting Industry Chamber of Commerce learned that these chambers of commerce have jointly issued a discontinuation proposal, indicating that the recent chemical fiber raw materials have been unreasonably priced unreasonably, the production and operation of enterprises are affected, and the small-scale warp knitting enterprises are Affected by the hard-hit areas, it is proposed that after the stocking of chemical fiber raw materials is cleared, the enterprises will suspend production and holiday to resist the unreasonable increase in raw material prices.
Founder's medium-term futures Xia Congcong believes that after the previous period of continuous rebound, the fundamental support of methanol is insufficient, the futures price continues to rise, and the kinetic energy is insufficient. The probability of falling back on the disk is high. The methanol plants that were shut down due to environmental protection will be resumed, such as late August. Jiangsu Shenghong's methanol plant will be restarted. Zhengshang has issued a risk warning letter, investors must understand the meaning of it, keep the mind clear, decision-making rational.