Since the beginning of this year, the entire industry of the machinery industry has conscientiously implemented the spirit of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Central Economic Work Conference, and vigorously promoted high-quality development. In the first half of the year, the trend of stable and good economic performance of the industry was further consolidated, and the growth rate of major economic indicators exceeded the national industrial average. Production and sales grew steadily, orders were better than expected, investment improved, and endogenous power of development increased.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, macroeconomic policies have provided a good environment for the industry to achieve stable growth. At the same time, however, the market demand is insufficient, the cost pressure is large, and the friction of foreign trade still remains. The task of improving the quality of industry development is still arduous.
First, to stabilize the momentum
(1) Increasing value growth rate is increasing month by month
Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of value added of the machinery industry has been increasing month by month, from 7% in the first two months of the year, 7.6% in the first quarter, to 8.4% in January-June. Although still lower than the same period of the previous year. , but higher than the national industrial and manufacturing industries by 1.7 and 1.5 percentage points respectively.
(II) Steady growth in economic efficiency
From January to June, the machinery industry realized the main business income of 11.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.41%; the total profit reached 761.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.73%. Both indicators achieved steady growth. But compared with the previous year, the main business The growth rate of the business income and total profit fell by 1.19 and 7.96 percentage points respectively.
Compared with the national industry, the growth rate of the main business of the machinery industry is 0.47 percentage points higher than the national industrial average during the same period, but the profit growth rate is 10.52 percentage points lower than that of the national industry during the same period.
(3) The output of major products increased year-on-year
Among the 120 major products monitored by the machinery industry in the first half of the year, there were 76 kinds of products with a year-on-year increase in output, accounting for 63%, a decrease of 18 kinds from the previous year; 44 products with a year-on-year decline in output, accounting for 37%, compared with the previous year. 19 kinds of increase. Among them, the output of 14 kinds of products changed from the year-on-year decline to the year-on-year growth, and the output of 33 kinds of products changed from the previous year's growth to the same year-on-year decline.
The output growth of major products has the following characteristics: First, the output of products closely related to the people's livelihood consumer market continues to maintain steady and rapid growth. For example, the production and sales volume of passenger cars increased by 3.2% and 4.6% respectively over the same period of the previous year. Refrigeration equipment, electric Forklifts, portable power tools, etc. all increased by more than 10%. Second, products related to environmental protection and pollution control continued the trend of rising sales, such as water pollution control equipment, solid waste treatment equipment, noise and vibration control equipment, etc. The year-on-year growth rate exceeded 20%. Third, the growth of products related to the intelligent manufacturing industry is good, such as industrial automatic adjustment instrumentation and control systems, analytical instruments and devices, testing machines, industrial robot production growth rate of 17%-42%. The construction machinery products continued to grow at a high speed on the basis of the previous year's high base. The excavator's growth rate reached 60%, and the load of loaders, bulldozers, graders and truck cranes also exceeded 30%. Parts and components are generally growing, hydraulic components, mold production growth rate of about 20%, bearings, valves, pneumatic components, forgings production growth rate of about 10%.
The products with a year-on-year decline in output are mainly agricultural machinery equipment, power generation equipment, power transmission and transformation equipment, etc., which have grown rapidly in previous years.
(4) The growth rate of fixed asset investment has rebounded
After more than two years of downturn, the fixed assets investment in the machinery industry has seen a recovery since 2018. In the first half of the year, the machinery industry mainly involved four major national economic industry categories, special equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment. The growth rate of investment in the three major industries was 10.3%, 8.5% and 8.5%, which was higher than that of the whole society (6%) and manufacturing (6.8%). The investment in general equipment manufacturing increased by 5.7%. From the trend point of view, the growth rate of major investment in major industries in the machinery industry has steadily increased month by month since this year, and the situation of low investment has improved.
(5) Foreign trade maintains growth
According to customs statistics, from January to June, the export of mechanical and electrical products nationwide was 686.7 billion US dollars, up 14.9% year-on-year; among which, machinery and equipment exports were 208 billion US dollars, up 17.1% year-on-year, and transportation tools exported 60.3 billion US dollars, up 16% year-on-year. Billion dollars, an increase of 4.2%.
From January to June, the import of mechanical and electrical products nationwide was 455.7 billion U.S. dollars, up 19.7% year-on-year, of which imports of machinery and equipment were 99.6 billion U.S. dollars, up 25.9% year-on-year, and imports of transportation tools were 51.2 billion U.S. dollars, up 6.9% year-on-year. Instruments and meters imported 49.3 billion U.S. dollars. Growth of 8.5%.
(vi) The price index is slowly picking up
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the ex-factory price of industrial producers rose by 4.7% year-on-year in June, the price of production materials rose by 6.1% year-on-year, the price of raw materials industry rose by 8.8%, and the price of processing industry rose by 4.6%. The overall industrial producer price index is rising. State. In the major national economic sectors involved in the machinery industry, the ex-factory price index of general equipment rose 1.8% year-on-year, special equipment rose 1.3%, automobile manufacturing rose 0.4%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose 0.6%, instrumentation manufacturing The year-on-year decline was 0.5%, which was lower than the rebound of the industrial producers' ex-factory price index during the same period.
Second, problems and pressures still exist
(1) Market demand remains sluggish
The market is weak, and the lack of demand is a problem that has plagued the development of the machinery industry for a period of time. The traditional user industries such as electricity, metallurgy, and coal are in the capacity adjustment period. Although some of the demand for renovation is released, it is compared with the capacity accumulated in the machinery industry. The market demand is still sluggish. The key figures of the machinery industry are linked to the company's data. After the company's orders have rebounded in 2017, it has shown a downward trend since 2018. The cumulative orders in the first half of the year increased by 9.64% year-on-year. The number of growth levels.
(2) The cost pressure is high and the efficiency is difficult to improve
From January to June, the main business cost of the machinery industry increased by 10.76% year-on-year, which was higher than the growth rate of the main business income and total profit during the same period. Specifically, the raw material price increased from 2017, which is the extrusion machinery industry in the first half of this year. The primary factor of profit. Secondly, in terms of labor cost, on the one hand, employee compensation continues to grow; on the other hand, the social security burden is aggravated, and the wages paid by the enterprise for labor dispatch personnel are also changed from three insurances to five risks. Third, financing costs this year Significantly rising, from January to June, the interest expense of machinery industry increased by 15.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 8.67 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total profit during the same period. Under the pressure of multiple costs, the total profit of machinery industry grew at a low rate this year, and the profit rate of main business income It was only 6.77%, down from 0.24 percentage points in the same period of last year.
(3) The total amount of accounts receivable is large, and it is difficult to recycle
The amount of accounts receivable is large, and the difficulty of recycling is the most prominent problem affecting the production and operation of machinery enterprises. It is one of the important reasons for enterprises to borrow and pay huge capital use costs. From January to June, the total amount of accounts receivable of machinery industry has been It reached 4.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.17% year-on-year, accounting for one-third of the total industrial receivables of the country. Many mechanical enterprises accountable amount is basically equal to the amount of bank loans or loans. Especially the host manufacturing enterprises, due to The product has a long production cycle, large capital occupation, strong personalization, and the difficulty of recovery of goods is particularly prominent.
The amount of accounts receivable is large, and the difficulty of recycling to the production and operation of enterprises is mainly manifested in three aspects: First, increase the pressure on capital turnover; Second, increase the burden of tax burden, enterprises pay tax; third, generate loan interest The pressure, the interest rate will swallow profits.
Third, endogenous power promotes high quality development
The report of the 19th National Congress pointed out that China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage. From the perspective of industrial practice, the mechanical industry is practicing high-quality development, and must adhere to industrial restructuring and product transformation and upgrading, promote the transformation of new and old kinetic energy, and enhance development. Endogenous power.
(1) Industrial transformation to the deeper level
In the past, the machinery industry mainly served in investment activities. Through the transformation and adjustment in recent years, under the influence of national policy guidance and market reversal mechanism, the awareness and ability to serve people's livelihood consumption has been continuously enhanced, and industrial restructuring has continued to advance.
As the second largest sub-sector of the machinery industry, the electrical and electronic industry has been driven mainly by power generation equipment manufacturing and power transmission and transformation equipment manufacturing. However, as the power generation and power transmission and transformation market tends to be saturated, the output of these two industries has been the main products this year. Declining, the operating situation is tightening. But instead, fiber optics, fiber optic cables, power electronics, lithium-ion batteries, electrical machinery, electric porcelain, electric carbon, electric welding machines, electric furnaces, etc., mainly for the intelligent manufacturing and consumer markets. In the first half of the year, these industries grew well. The average profit margin (7.72%) was about 1.5 times that of the entire industry (5.29%), which became a new driving force for the growth of the electrical industry.
(II) Product multi-dimensional upgrade
With the advancement of supply-side structural reforms and the transformation of new and old kinetic energy of economic growth, mechanical enterprises actively promote the upgrading of product structure. Mainly manifested in:
First, the upgrade of traditional product functions. For example, Hyundai Agricultural Equipment Co., Ltd. launched a new generation of cotton picking machine, which adopts advanced technologies such as electronics and hydraulics, and loads the parameter monitoring system to realize fault prediction, and sets one-button unloading function to improve fire risk. Responsive ability, enhance the traditional equipment function.
The second is the major equipment intelligent upgrade. The major technical equipment safety and stability operation has many influencing factors, and the intelligence is of great significance. The new generation of intelligent straddle vehicle developed by Zhenhua Heavy Industry officially entered the dynamic road test stage, which is the world's first unmanned navigation. System of container straddle carrier products. The first fully intelligent concrete jet developed by Tiejian Heavy Industry has realized 3D scanning modeling of the tunnel injection area, with automatic positioning, injection path planning, intelligent injection, automatic correction, data interaction. And other functions, is the world's first fully intelligent concrete jet.
Third, the original industry green upgrade. In the first half of the year, China's auto industry new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 94.9% and 111.5%, respectively, higher than the average growth rate of automobile production and sales of 90.8 and 105.9 percentage points, and the proportion in the automotive market continued to increase. In the heavy mining industry, as the metallurgical, mining and other user industries are in the capacity adjustment stage, the demand for traditional products declines, thus turning to the green metal comprehensive upgrading engineering technology and equipment for the metallurgical industry, providing comprehensive treatment and utilization technology and equipment for industrial waste and garbage. Metallurgy, building materials, coal, chemical and other industries energy-saving emission reduction technology and equipment.
(3) Actively expand business areas
In order to seek new development opportunities and foster new growth points, enterprises are actively exploring new business areas. For example, Dongfang Electric began research and development of hydrogen fuel cells in 2010, insisting on independent research and development and innovation of core technologies, and hydrogen jointly developed with Chengdu Bus. Fuel electric buses are carrying passengers in Chengdu this year. CITIC Heavy Industries has developed special robot products such as mining robots and fire fighting robots, which have achieved good sales and achieved good economic benefits. Tianma Bearing has entered the high-performance bearing steel industry while deepening the bearing industry. 5. R & D, manufacturing, has achieved initial results.
(IV) New progress in the localization of major equipment core components
The development of core components with independent intellectual property rights is the top priority for solving the 'hollowing' of major equipment in China. Machinery industry-related enterprises have struggled for many years. With the support of relevant departments and leaders, this year's domestically produced major equipment core components have been obtained. A series of new developments. Wazhou Group and Luoyang LYC Bearing Group independently developed high-speed EMU bearings. After more than 10 years of research and development and testing, they have completed digital simulation analysis and design, prototypes, bench tests, and will soon be in the near future. 250 km / h of the revival on the trial. Pagoda Industrial (formerly Northwest Bearing) and Beijing Metro Operation Company R & D Center joint research and development of metro bearing research and application, after more than 10 years of research and development, testing, trial operation, the first time obtained a small Bulk orders. The multi-way valves of Hengli hydraulic parts have also been supplied in large quantities on excavators below 15 tons.
(5) Increased recognition of overseas markets
In the global market competition, the international market recognition of China's machinery enterprises and machinery products has gradually increased. In the past year and a half, Liugong CLG950E excavator has achieved a total of 15 terminal sales in the UK. Up to 18%, involved in the ground-breaking operation of abandoned power plants, nuclear power plant construction projects, etc., is the first time that China's construction machinery products participate in the UK infrastructure construction project. In the first half of this year, Shanghai Electric and Dongfang Electric formed a joint venture with the world's three leading electric groups. The competition won, and the project of the Hannah coal-fired power station in Egypt was obtained.
Fourth, the forecast of the whole year
Since the beginning of this year, the operation of the machinery industry has basically met the expectations at the beginning of the year, and the operation of major industries has remained stable. For the development of the main sub-sectors of the machinery industry in the second half of the year,
As the largest sub-sector of the machinery industry, the automobile industry has withdrawn from the small-displacement preferential policies of 1.6 liters and below in 2018, but the automobile industry has entered a relatively stable growth period. The annual growth rate of automobile production and sales will be basically the same as that of the previous year.
As the second largest sub-sector of the machinery industry, the electrical and electronic industry is not optimistic about the situation of traditional leading products. The thermal power market has fallen sharply, and the gas turbine and wind power are basically flat. However, the optical fiber cable, power electronics, lithium-ion battery, power tools and other products are in good market. Formed a strong support.
As the third largest industry in the machinery industry, the petrochemical general equipment industry is getting better in the economic situation of various industries. In particular, the tightening of energy-saving policies in high-energy-consuming fields has brought the market demand for technological transformation to the industry. In addition, the rise in international oil prices has driven industry investment to become more active. It is expected that the petrochemical general industry will maintain a steady growth throughout the year.
The instrumentation industry has been driven by strategies such as intelligent manufacturing and industrial transformation and upgrading. In recent years, it has been in a state of rapid development. It is expected that the industry will continue to develop steadily and rapidly in 2018.
Due to the shrinking market demand in the agricultural machinery industry, the downward trend of the previous year continued in 2018, and it is expected that it will be difficult to get out of the trough this year.
The general parts industry has a large product range and the operating situation is better than the mainframe industry. It is expected to maintain a good momentum throughout the year.
In addition, driven by infrastructure construction and stock upgrades, the construction machinery industry is expected to maintain a good boom in the second half of the year, but the growth rate of production and sales may fall back at high levels; the internal combustion engine and machine tool industry in the automotive and construction machinery industries Driven by the second half of the year is expected to run smoothly.
Comprehensive analysis and judgment: It is expected that the economic operation of machinery industry will be relatively stable in the whole year of 2018, industrial added value, main business income, realizing profit growth rate of about 7%, and import and export trade grows moderately. It should be noted that it has experienced continuous With years of rapid development, the scale of China's machinery industry has reached a high level of annual business income of more than 240 million yuan. With the continuous expansion of the base, it is normal for the growth rate to fall moderately.
2018 is the first year of the full implementation of the spirit of the 19th Party Congress. It is the 40th anniversary of the reform and opening up. It is the key year for the implementation of the '13th Five-Year Plan. The machinery industry must resolutely implement the central strategic deployment and accelerate adjustment. The pace of transformation, enhance the stability of industry development, promote the conversion of new and old kinetic energy, enhance the level of economic efficiency, and comprehensively promote high-quality development.
meeting venue
Chen Bin, Executive Vice President of China Machinery Industry Federation Economic situation of machinery industry in the first half of 2018
Dong Yang, Vice President of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and Vice Chairman of China Machinery Industry Federation, answered questions from reporters
Zhao Xinmin, deputy secretary general of China Machinery Industry Federation, presided over the meeting