1. The Sino-US trade war will only enhance the sense of urgency of China's packaging and testing industry;
Set micro-network news (text / Aki) The impact of Sino-US trade war is still spreading.
On July 11, the Office of the US Trade Representative announced the launch of an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods with an annual trade volume of approximately US$200 billion, and announced a list of 195 pages of tariffs to be imposed, including the semiconductor industry. .
Then, under the background of the Sino-US trade war, China will be the world's largest electronic information manufacturing base. How will the semiconductor industry, especially the packaging and testing enterprises, be affected?
As we all know, chip production is a technology-intensive process line. A production line may involve more than 50 industries and 5,000 processes, including wafers, tapes, packages, lithography and other professional subdivisions.
Even if it is the most advanced development in the United States, its lithography machine is also dependent on Europe, and the material is dependent on Japan. Then, since it is impossible to control the entire industry chain, it can only be improved. In equipment, raw materials, design, manufacturing , Fengfeng above, concentrate on doing a few things, or even just one thing.
Tianfeng Electronics pointed out in its report that the packaging and testing industry will probably be the first to achieve self-controllable areas, which is also less affected by the Sino-US trade war. And the threshold for entry in this field is low, China's Listed companies also have the opportunity to become global leaders through economies of scale.
Comparing the packaging and testing industry with other industries, we can easily find that the packaging and testing industry is very different from other industries:
First of all, from a technical point of view, both foundry and chip design are driven by Moore's Law. It is necessary to continuously invest in new production lines and introduce new designs to promote the development of the industry and meet the needs of the market. However, the promotion of Moore's Law to the packaging and testing industry is not obvious.
In general, advanced manufacturing techniques follow Moore's Law every 18 months, and linewidth linearity doubles every 18 months, but at the same time, the package connection technology is shrinking online, the overall experience is only Several generations of technological change.
Secondly, chip design and foundry are two complementary processes. Fabless customers need to produce and launch products on behalf of the factory. The inspection and testing process does not necessarily require agent processing, which determines that the packaging industry has not followed the upstream industry. The chain is growing in the same proportion.
Therefore, Tianfeng Electronics believes that the packaging and testing industry will increase the market share by scale and resources. The technology is not an absolute barrier. Later, participants also have the opportunity to share the cake. Moreover, the technical iteration route of the packaging and testing industry is not significant, which is beneficial to the domestic market. Enterprises catch up.
Entry barriers are not high, China's overall strength is good
The technical limitations essentially determine that the R&D cost of the packaging and testing enterprise is not high. Therefore, relatively speaking, the proportion of R&D and R&D is not high, and it will determine that the barriers to entry are not high.
Therefore, Tianfeng Electronics said that the overall strength of China's mainland enterprises in the packaging and testing industry is good, and it has strong competitiveness in the world. Moreover, in the packaging and testing industry, the US market share is generally, among the top ten packaging and testing manufacturers, American companies only The Amkor family should say that the trade war has little impact on the overall industry of the beta test. From a short, medium and long term perspective, Amkor's business is more likely to be replaced.
At present, the packaging and testing industry presents China's Taiwan region, the United States, and the mainland region. Among them, Changjiang Electronics Technology Co., Ltd., Tongfu Microelectronics, Huatian Technology has entered the top ten global market share through capital mergers and acquisitions, advanced packaging. The technical level is basically in sync with overseas leading enterprises, and advanced packaging technologies such as BGA, WLP, SiP can be mass-produced.
It can be said that the semiconductor industry in mainland China has the strongest influence in the packaging and testing industry. Compared with the Taiwanese companies, the overall growth potential of the mainland packaging and testing industry has not fallen.
However, it is also worth noting that although the performance of China's packaging and testing plants is violent, its profits are still far behind the big ones in Taiwan.
Yu Kangkang, vice chairman of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, pointed out: 'So far, there have been many large-scale international mergers and acquisitions in the packaging and testing industry. It is foreseeable that the packaging and testing enterprises, especially the IC packaging and testing enterprises in China, must undergo a series of mergers and acquisitions. In-depth integration, improve technology research and development and innovation capabilities, increase the proportion of China's packaging and testing enterprises in the world's first-class packaging and testing enterprises. Through the integration of domestic and international capital, to find a better cooperation model, become capital flow and technical exchanges The internationalization platform allows the capital to enter the high-quality projects of the industrial chain as soon as possible, catch up with the international giants on the mature technology route, and create a group of international first echelon companies.
Under the Sino-US trade war, how can the sealing and testing industry achieve breakthrough?
Due to the huge potential of the semiconductor industry as a whole, the United States is also extremely concerned about the development of China's semiconductor industry. The White House report "Ensuring the Leadership of US Semiconductors" stresses that 'the rise of China's semiconductor industry will threaten the future of the industry. It is recommended that the government use various means to contain it. Or limit '.
However, for the current global semiconductor industry, the global industrial chain division is basically formed. Under the existing industrial structure, China and the United States are highly integrated, and the war is both wounded, and the two are beneficial. You have me, I have you. This is the main manifestation. In the following two aspects:
First, China relies on the United States for high-end technology and equipment, but US corporate income is also highly dependent on China.
Secondly, in the field of consumer electronics, a considerable proportion of components come from Chinese suppliers. It is also worth noting that the export volume of foreign-invested enterprises in China is also included in exports to the United States, so Sino-US trade disputes will also impact US companies.
The Sino-US trade war is a long-term process. Its major impact on the global semiconductor industry chain is: China's domestic semiconductor companies are blocked by mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures to quickly acquire foreign cutting-edge technology and patents, which will be blocked by the semiconductor industry. In the high-tech areas of the chain, technology direct investment in low-tech areas, technology transfer and shareholding two modes have formed major obstacles, but also bring significant development opportunities for technology transfer channels.
For the packaging and testing industry, because the packaging and testing industry is located at the end of the semiconductor industry chain, its added value is low, labor intensity is high, and technical barriers are low. Tianfeng Electronics believes that the global packaging and testing industry is intensified due to competition and market volatility. It will be more unstable. Continental companies are continuing to accelerate integration, thereby enhancing operational effectiveness and increasing technology intensity. In the medium and long term, the negative impact of the trade war blockade on mainland packaging and testing companies is relatively small.
The Sino-US trade war will only enhance the urgency of China's semiconductor packaging and testing industry! (Proofreading / Xiaobei)
2. Wall Street Journal: Can Samsung be in the US-China trade war?
The US-China trade dispute has caused South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. (005930.SE) to fall into a very embarrassing situation.
The United States and China are both Samsung's largest markets, adding up to about 40% of Samsung's 2017 revenue. How to trade in the US-China trade is a challenge that Samsung is currently facing, even though US tariffs have threatened Samsung's Sales of household appliances and equipment components.
Samsung sells TV sets, smartphones and electrical products in the US, and its memory chips are used in millions of Chinese devices. Samsung is also a major overseas investor in the US and China, and has invested US$10 billion in the US in recent years. Including investment in building home appliances and semiconductor factories. In February 2017, before Samsung invested in South Carolina, US President Trump issued a tweet to welcome Samsung to the US to build a factory. In China, Samsung has allocated 7. 7 billion US dollars for the production of memory chips in Xi'an along the ancient Silk Road.
However, Samsung is being hurt by both China and the United States. Samsung washing machines sold in the US have faced up to 50% tariffs, although the US washing machine business only accounts for a small portion of the company's total business. In addition, Samsung semiconductor products may also face Other taxation measures or the situation of declining demand.
Kwon Oh-hyun, chairman of Samsung Electronics, said at the annual shareholders meeting in March that the company expects uncertainties such as trade protectionism and geopolitical risks to continue throughout the year.
Due to Samsung's global supply chain, the overall impact of the US on new tariffs on Samsung products is difficult to estimate. The company's smartphones are mostly manufactured in Vietnam and India. Analysts say that Samsung TVs are produced around the world, so The company can transfer production to countries not affected by trade disputes when necessary.
According to Mun Byung-ki of the Korea International Trade Association, the global trade war may cause South Korea's annual semiconductor exports to China to fall by 4 billion US dollars. If it is produced in China, products using Samsung chips will face the US market. Tariffs, Samsung will be one of the first Korean companies to bear the brunt. China accounts for about one-sixth of Samsung's 2017 revenue of 239.58 trillion won ($212.7 billion).
HI Investment & Securities, a Seoul-based securities firm, said concerns about a slowdown in the semiconductor industry have cast a shadow over Samsung’s earnings outlook. HI Investment & Securities cut its Samsung’s stock price target last month, saying it’s taking into account the recent US 3. The trade war with China is inevitable.
The relationship between Samsung and China is also changing. The Chinese government is trying to reduce its dependence on foreign chips and is committed to supporting the development of local displays, memory chips and other components.
The Chinese government has studied Samsung's rise as a multinational company. According to a person familiar with the matter, in June this year, a few Korean companies and former political leaders were invited to informally with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. In the afternoon talks, Samsung is one of them. The person familiar with the matter said that at the time, Li Keqiang quoted a Chinese proverb, 'The Moon near the Water Tower', which reminded the South Korean side of the mutual benefit of cooperation between the two countries.
Also in June, Chinese regulators began investigating memory chip manufacturers, including Samsung, and visited Samsung's China office.
Some analysts say that regulators may be investigating price fraud involving memory chips. The Chinese government has not responded to requests for comment.
Analysts said that although Samsung is seemingly neutral, it has been busy lobbying and strategic planning between the two countries, hoping to protect its own territory while trade tensions and protectionist policies escalate to create potential business opportunities.
In the United States, which accounts for more than a quarter of Samsung’s 2017 revenue, Samsung has stepped up its lobbying in Washington. According to a US Senate database, Samsung spent $3.4 million last year, twice the previous year. In the first half of this year, Samsung has spent $2.2 million. Government documents show that trade has always been Samsung's main lobbying topic.
In addition, while the development of a new generation of 5G cellular technology is ready, Samsung may also seize the opportunity to build its own mobile network equipment business in the United States. US lawmakers accuse China's Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE. After the national security risks existed by ZTE Co., 000063.SZ (ZTE Co., Ltd.), the US market has also opened its doors to Samsung and other companies. According to people familiar with the matter, Samsung has been working hard to expand the United States. Network team, recruiting engineers, senior project managers and other talent from competitor operators.
Industry analysts say that Samsung does have amulets in trade disputes because companies are more dependent on Samsung's electronic components and find it difficult to find alternative suppliers. Samsung is also the world's largest TV maker, and more than five points worldwide. One smartphone is a Samsung device.
Sanjeev Rana, senior analyst at CLSA in Seoul, said the world is inseparable from Samsung. Wall Street Journal 3.2018 Global semiconductor sales in the first half of the year was 117.9 billion US dollars, and the Chinese market increased by 30% in June;
According to statistics, in June 2018, global semiconductor sales were US$39.4 billion, an increase of 1.5% compared with May's US$38.7 billion, with the news of the micro-network. Today’s Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced the global semiconductor sales in June. Compared with the same period last year, the US$32.6 billion increased by 20.5%.
John Neuffer, President and CEO of SIA, pointed out that the performance of the global semiconductor market in the first half of 2018 was very bright, and sales in the second quarter were a new record. He said that global semiconductor sales have increased for 15 consecutive months. More than %, sales of all major products increased in June.
From a regional perspective, the growth of the American market continued to be strong, with total sales in the first half of the year increasing by more than 30% compared with the same period last year.
4. The price of niche DRAM in the third quarter was flat, and the cost advantage of DDR3 was still in the short term;
According to the latest survey by Jibang Consulting Semiconductor Research Center, DRAM manufacturers have successively negotiated with customers on the price of the base-based memory in July. The price is roughly the same as that in June. Looking forward to the third quarter, DDR4 niche is expected. The memory quotation level will be closer to the mainstream standard type and server memory, because the original factory can change the product category through the bonding option. The DDR3 presents a relatively stable supply and demand structure, and the quotation is expected to have no obvious change. Overall 4. The third quarter niche memory price trend is expected to be flat.
DDR3 has a cost advantage, and it is still the mainstream of niche type memory in the short term.
Regarding the types of product applications, first of all, in the niche-type memory demand for TV, this year's shipments were steady, about 215.7 million units. However, in terms of DRAM, consider the SiP package to save component cost or PCB area. Advantages, more than 70% of FHD TV SoCs are shipped in SiP package; low-end 4K TVs are gradually introducing SiP under cost considerations. However, due to temperature limitations, DRAMs using SiP package can only be equipped with DDR3 memory. .
Observing the price of the terminal, the current capacity of DDR4 and DDR3 still has a price difference of more than 20%, and the TV main chip is compatible with both memory specifications, so the penetration rate of DDR4 in niche memory is very slow, even The newly opened TV model uses DDR3. DRAMeXchange believes that DDR3 will still be a niche memory before the DDR4 price has dropped back to near DDR3, or as long as the DDR4 price of the PC or server is maintained at a high water level. Mainstream, it is expected that this phenomenon will not be reversed until the end of 2019.
Ethereum prices continue to fall, DDR3 1Gb memory pulls the end of the boom
As for the virtual currency market, although the bitcoin price has shown signs of a rebound in the near term, the E3 (there is 576 chips per unit) with high memory demand is affected by the continued decline in the price of the Ethanol. It was originally expected to appear in the second half of this year. Strong pull momentum has disappeared, and the price increase of DDR3 1Gb is expected to fall. DRAMeXchange believes that the price of Ethereum will rise to a certain level, or before the emergence of a new type of mining machine supporting high-volume memory (and the unit price of the currency) To be high enough to attract players to join the mining), the memory craze brought by it is coming to an end.
5. MLCC two good two bad Chen Taiming said that the stability of the military;
The passive component Dachang Guoming (8) held a law meeting on the day, and Chen Taiming, the chairman of the board, will dismiss the fire line. The legal person pointed out that MLCC (multilayer ceramic capacitor) has the basic good face and the 'two good' theme of out of stock. However, there is a 'two bad' problem with chip chaos and technical line-type emptying. Chen Taiming is face-to-face with the legal person, which is beneficial to the passive family to get rid of the technical and psychological dark clouds.
Passive components in the past month, the stock price fell sharply, the national giant from the major shareholder (market rumors are ex-wife) release of 12 billion yuan on the delivery date led the decline, a drop of up to 50%, causing the passive component stocks to retreat. But the recent country Huge, Huaxinke and Heshentang are profitable, and Dafang is also optimistic about the economy in the law conference. The legal person believes that Chen Taiming’s appearance will help reverse the three bad interests, including the major shareholder’s release of 12 billion yuan. (New Taiwan Dollar), the labor retreat fund on behalf of the operator to reduce the code and the pressure of legal person stop loss.
Huang Wenqing, deputy general manager of Taixin Investment, said that Guoju, Xingqin, Kelixin, Huaxinke, Heshentang, Xinchangdian and Jinshandian had a record high in July, but the stock price failed to rise simultaneously. The party's regulation power is still strong, and the passive components in the market will not be prosperous in the peak season, causing the stock price to fall, and investors are sitting on the wall.
Li Fangguo, chairman of the unified investment committee, said that passive components are currently showing three major trends: good profit, good prospects, and poor chips. He estimates that it will take some time to sort out the bottom.
Li Xiuli, general manager of Risheng Investment Co., said that the profits of Guoju and Huaxinke continued to rise. At present, the P/E ratio is less than ten times, and the national giant’s law on Wednesday will change the practice of online law. The anti-committee handles large-scale law conferences by brokers, and meets the needs of legal persons once. If Chen Taiming can address a number of issues, including the release of major shareholders, the future direction of MLCC and the development of Guoju Group, it is expected to secure confidence in buying. Times