In the past half-month or so, the domestic plastic raw material market continued to rise, and the price of polypropylene pellets broke through the high level in the past four years. However, the market is rapidly rising, and can the market's upward momentum be sustainable in the later period?
The main reasons for this market increase are as follows: First, the supply side is tight. This year, the centralized maintenance of the installation in the spring is obviously stronger than in previous years. At the same time, the centralized inspection is over. After that, some devices are gradually entering the inspection and follow-up. 2. The tension at the supply end is not large, and the pressure on petrochemical stocks is gradually reduced.
Secondly, the demand side is relatively better. During the year, the state banned the implementation of the waste plastics import system, while the downstream demand for imported waste plastics was gradually transferred to new materials. According to Zhongyu Information Statistics, the domestic general production in the first half of 2018 was the first half of last year. Increased by 9.69%. Demand has improved in disguise, driving the market.
Thirdly, except for the relative improvement of the supply side, the short-term positive news is also followed. The central bank has directed water release on the macro side, the coal chemical equipment has been overhauled in the early August, and the powdery equipment in the summer is limited. Both bring upward momentum to the market.
At present, it seems that due to the continuous rise in futures, some of the merchants' supply is locked in the disk, which leads to tight supply in the market. This also brings fundamental support to the futures. However, the current petrochemical inventories are still higher than the same period last year, and the final price is mainly affected. The factors will return to the supply and demand level, and the demand will eventually return to the terminal enterprise.
At present, due to the high raw material prices, the downstream enterprises have increased their resistance, some enterprises have reduced their load production, and even some downstream enterprises have indicated that they will enter the holiday after clearing the raw material inventory. However, the export of plastic products is blocked in the context of the recent trade friction escalation, and the terminal It is difficult to support the sharp rise of raw materials. It is expected that the current market lacks the momentum of high support. It is necessary to guard against the possibility of rapid price correction after the change of supply and demand.