The proposal of 'achieving 600 billion yuan in 5 years' reflects that Gree Electric is gradually deviating from the track of the market economy and slipping into the era of planned economy.
On August 3, Huawei's consumer business announced its next goal by releasing the 2018 semi-annual report. By the end of 2019, it achieved a market share of over 20% and became the world's number one.
On the same day, Gree Electric also exposed its ambitious development goals: By 2023, it will realize an operating income of 600 billion.
According to the Gree Electric Market Department on July 27, on the same day, Dong Mingzhu, Chairman of Gree Electric Appliances, attended the full-time meeting of the Marketing Department, clearly requiring all employees of the Marketing Department to remember the words 'preemption' at any time in the work and dare to fight for it. In order to achieve the goal of 20 billion in 2023, we will contribute to the development of the territory.
Gree Electric related people confirmed the above news in an interview with the media, saying that the goal of achieving 600 billion in 2023 was already raised at the beginning of this year, but it has not been made public.
The news is out, the public opinion is stunned. Many people are puzzled: In 2017, Gree Electric Appliances, which achieved revenue of 148.3 billion yuan, can raise the revenue scale to 600 billion in just 6 years?
More people think that the Gree Electric, led by Dong Mingzhu, is getting more and more people can't understand.
1
From '20 billion annual growth' to '80 billion annual growth'
In 2013, Gree Electric Appliances, which had just entered the Dong Mingzhu era by 'Zhu Dongpei', proposed an annual goal of 20 billion yuan in revenue and 200 billion yuan in revenue by 2018.
In the past two years, it has been relatively smooth. The annual revenue increase of 20 billion yuan has been accurately achieved. By 2015, the situation has changed suddenly. Gree Electric Appliances' revenue has dropped from 140.05 billion yuan in the previous year to 97.745 billion yuan. In 2017, after two years of hard work, it barely rebounded to the level of 2014 (148.3 billion yuan).
In 2018, Gree Electric again resumed radicalization and proposed to achieve 50 billion increments in 2018, thus completing the grand goal of '2018 revenues of 200 billion yuan' proposed five years ago.
Achieving a revenue increase of more than 50 billion yuan in one year is considered by most to be an impossible task.
First, air-conditioning revenue accounts for 83% of Gree's total revenue, and this part of the business was in trouble in 2018, and the growth rate was much lower than the industry growth of more than 37% in 2017.
According to China National Grid Survey: 2018 Cold Year, Midea, Haier, Aux Three brands performed well, production and sales growth is expected to be better than the industry average; due to Gree's high base in 2017, this year's growth is expected to fall back. In other words, Gree air-conditioning Did not outperform the 2018 cold market.
So, what about the industry situation throughout the 2018 cold year?
According to the data provided by the industry online: China's household air conditioner sales in the year of 2018 increased by 14% year-on-year, while 2017 was 37%. Among them, domestic market sales increased by 21.1% in the year of 2018, while 2017 was 65.8%; export market, 2018 In the cold year, it increased by 6%, while 2017 was 13.2%.
Obviously, both domestic and foreign markets have experienced a slowdown in growth.
This means that for Gree, which accounts for 83% of total revenues, it is not easy to achieve significant revenue growth in 2018.
Air-conditioning can not achieve a substantial increase in revenue, Gree's other business sectors such as living appliances (Da Song small appliances), how about intelligent equipment, can achieve more than expected growth?
At the moment, the public has not seen any media reports on the surge in sales of Gree's appliances and smart equipment. We have reason to believe that Gree's life appliances and smart equipment in 2018 will not exceed Gree's revenue growth. contribution.
At this point, the conclusion is not much more than already: In 2018, Gree Electric's possibility of achieving a revenue increase of over 50 billion yuan is very small. In other words, the possibility of Gree's 200 billion yuan revenue target in 2018 is almost non-existent.
Don't worry, is there such a possibility: Gree Electric has hit the revenue increase of 50 billion yuan by increasing the amount of advance receipts to dealers, thus achieving the target of 200 billion yuan in revenue? I think this possibility exists. If Dong Mingzhu is determined to complete the 200 billion yuan commitment, this possibility will be very large.
However, when Dong Mingzhu's goal of '20 billion annual growth' is still missing, she has already set a more ambitious goal for Gree Electric: In the next 5 years (starting from 2019), the average annual growth rate is 80 billion.
The old problem has not been solved yet, and the new problem has come again: What does Gree use to achieve '80 billion annual growth in the next 5 years'?
Accounting is the most convincing, we still give Gree Electric to calculate the 'growth' account for the next five years.
Because the goal of achieving 600 billion in 5 years is too grand, my algorithm below is basically a wishful thinking. You may feel ridiculous, but I am quite eager to know Dong Mingzhu.
First, calculate the income of air-conditioning, this is the big head of Gree Electric, it is expected to be a big head in the next 5 years.
How to calculate? The entire Chinese air-conditioning market (home air conditioner + commercial air conditioner) is about 300 billion yuan. I will give this big cake to Gree Electric. Other manufacturers will let them not sell one. This one year Can contribute about 300 billion yuan in revenue to Gree Electric.
Ok, where is the 300 billion left?
We know that Gree's revenue consists of four components, namely: Gree air-conditioning + Gree Electric part of the direct branch (such as Shanghai company, etc.) business income + life appliances + intelligent equipment.
The above counts the Gree air-conditioning revenue, the following three other items.
First look at Gree Life Appliances (ie, Dasong Small Appliances): This piece of 2017 revenue is 2.3 billion yuan. In the past 5 years, this piece has climbed from 1.5 billion to 2.3 billion. It is difficult. The advantages of Gree small appliances are not obvious, and the future will grow sharply. The possibility is still small, but I still promise to double it in the next five years, namely: 4.6 billion in 2023.
Look at Gree smart equipment. This piece was put forward by Dong Mingzhu, and it was also a piece of Dong Mingzhu’s constant propaganda on various occasions.
This piece, in 2017, realized revenue of 2.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1220.27%. Just look at the increase, you must feel very excited; but know the truth, I am afraid your tears will fall. The income of 2.26 billion yuan, Zhuhai Yinlong contribution It is 1.89 billion yuan. This means that Gree's smart equipment revenue in 2017 mainly depends on the related transactions with Zhuhai Yinlong. The sales of intelligent equipment sold independently are only 236 million yuan, which is described as 'less to poor'. But let's divide it.
However, I have a positive attitude towards Gree's development of intelligent equipment. Intelligent equipment belongs to industrial products. The development of industrial products has always been the advantage of Gree. With the inherent entrepreneurial spirit of Gree, this piece of the future should have no development, but it takes time, after all. Gree's intelligent equipment has a low starting point. At least four robot companies are robbing the road ahead. But I am still willing to promise to achieve annual sales income of 10 billion yuan after 5 years.
As for the income of some of the direct branches of Gree Electric, I can only frankly say that I have no basis for any prediction. This piece is the operating point.
In this way, Gree Electric's existing business sector can achieve revenues of 2023: 300 billion yuan (air conditioning) + 4.6 billion yuan (life appliances) + 10 billion yuan (smart equipment) + direct branch business income. I Right and calculate according to 350 billion.
This is certainly not the total revenue of Gree Electric in 2023. Because Gree will continue to enter new industries in the next five years, in fact, it is now cultivating new industries, such as Gree mobile phones, Gree refrigerators, washing machines, kitchen appliances. , and the energy storage industry being laid out, the chip industry.
Let's talk about Gree mobile phone. In 2017, Dong Mingzhu said at a meeting that I hope that the future mobile phone market in China is like this. Huawei is the first and Gree is the second. What is the actual situation? Recently, Huawei mobile phone just announced that it has been phased. Beyond Apple, the annual sales target has increased from 180 million units to 200 million units. Gree mobile phone sales? In this regard, Dong Mingzhu is more modest and has not said anything. However, industry experts speculate that Gree mobile phone sales in 2017 will not exceed 100,000 units. 2018 may be lower than 2017.
So what about the future?
I gave Gree air-conditioners and Gree small appliances, the most expectation of smart equipment, here I am not welcome to Gree mobile phone, my opinion is that Gree mobile phone may not last until 2023, this is my basic view.
Let's say Gree refrigerator, washing machine, kitchen electric.
First of all, the Gree refrigerator mentioned here does not refer to Jinghong refrigerator, Jinghong refrigerator and Gree Electric have no relationship, it is a few Gree dealers' own business, the refrigerator here refers to Gree own brand refrigerator.
Let me put it this way, Gree does refrigerators, washing machines, kitchen appliances, and Gree is actually the same. It is not competitive. The Gree brand is very powerful, but this power is limited to Gree air conditioners. It is difficult to graft in Gree refrigerators, washing machines, kitchen appliances, On the mobile phone. Even so, I still promised to realize its revenue of 5 billion yuan in 2023.
What about energy storage?
This piece of Dong Mingzhu has always been unclear, I don’t know how much money I invested, I don’t know how it’s progressing, I don’t even know how much revenue this piece brings to Gree, I don’t even know what this relationship is with Zhuhai Yinlong. I am still willing to give it 5 billion yuan in 5 years.
Regarding Gree's chip, I won't say it, I believe most people's judgment.
New energy vehicles? This piece is worth talking about. First of all, this piece is Dong Mingzhu's personal investment, and has nothing to do with Gree Electric, can not be counted in the revenue of Gree Electric Appliances. Moreover, Gree Electric Appliances enters new energy vehicles in the next 5 years. The possibility of the field is not big. The logic of my prejudging is very simple: Dong Mingzhu can't make Zhuhai Yinlong a new energy car, and let Gree Electric do a new energy car. Isn't it to fight with yourself?!
But not finished.
What I need to point out is that this possibility is not ruled out: After three years, Gree Electric once again launched an acquisition of Zhuhai Yinlong. Of course, the acquisition has a premise, namely: Zhuhai Yinlong under the direct management of Dong Mingzhu’s team, The situation is greatly improved, the development is very good, and it is very healthy. Losing this precondition, Gree Electric does not dare to initiate an acquisition.
If the five-year consequences of Zhuhai Yinlong are as good as Dong Mingzhu expects, and it is successfully acquired by Gree Electric, I would rather give it a revenue forecast of 50 billion yuan.
At this point, we can calculate the general ledger. In 2023, Gree's revenue should be 350 billion + 5 billion (Gree ice wash kitchen) + 5 billion (Gree storage energy) + 50 billion yuan (Zhuhai Yinlong), namely 4000 100 million yuan. Distance 600 billion, there is still a gap of 200 billion yuan.
Where is the gap of 200 billion yuan left? I can't edit it.
However, I am sure: In the next five years, Gree will continue to enter new industrial fields. What are these industrial fields? I don't know, but I am sure this is the 200 billion gap opportunity here.
2
Warning: Air conditioning is about to enter the stock market era
With this account, I estimate that I have been beaten up by the dog. Let us come back to reality.
What does reality look like? It may be more severe than imagined.
Taking Gree's main business air conditioner as an example, I have a basic judgment: Soon, air conditioning will enter the era of stock market. What do you mean? That is to say, the era of moderate growth of air conditioners in the past years, will soon be gone return.
What is the basis for making such a judgment? According to the development stage of the Chinese economy, and the development of the air-conditioning industry, there is no room for development.
In the past 30 years, China's economy has continued to grow rapidly and has grown into the second largest economy in the world. Generally speaking, when an economy develops to a certain level, its growth rate will gradually slow down. This is the departure of all developed countries. The way to go, China is hard to be an exception - unless it is guaranteed to grow at all costs.
Take our neighboring Japan as an example. In the past 25 years, Japan's national GDP growth rate has fluctuated between 0% and 2% for most of the time. Therefore, Japan entered the stock market era earlier. The United States, the European Union is also.
So, what are the characteristics of the stock market?
The distinctive feature of the stock market is that the long-term dynamics of the economic aggregate are stable at a level, the slope of the growth curve is small, and there are many years of negative growth.
I judge that the stock market will take the lead in China's home appliance industry. Why? Because China's home appliance industry has the highest degree of marketization and the highest penetration rate, just like the throttle has been stepped on, and there is no way to speed up.
I say that some people may be worried: If the market has no growth or slight growth, is it that the company can't develop? Of course not.
However, the growth mode of enterprises will be reviewed and changed. The growth of future enterprises will gradually shift from incremental market competition to stock market competition. The main way of stock market competition is not to make big cakes, but to grab cakes from others.
In other words, when you see that some or some companies are still growing under adverse conditions, you should also see that some weak companies are living harder and even shuffled out. 'Everyone has meat to eat' There are no more days, some people eat meat and some people drink soup, some people can't even drink soup, starve to death.
Taking Zhigao of China's air-conditioning industry as an example, this is a very wonderful company. It is not Qiqi who hired Jackie Chan as an image spokesperson after Gree gave up Jackie Chan as an image spokesperson, but it was a miracle in Gree, when it was a big profit, it made a small profit. When others make small profits, it loses money. Everyone looks at the company's annual report in the past few years and knows how wonderful it is. I dare say that once the air conditioner enters the stock market era, the company that fell first is the company.
The arrival of the stock market era means that in the past, the growth of each year and the growth of all of them will cease to exist. It will become increasingly unrealistic to continue to formulate high-growth plans.
3
Be wary of the planned economic resurgence
Everyone has already seen that even if you wish Gree with a good wish, it will not be able to achieve the 600 billion revenue target in 2023.
So the question came: Since it is clearly an impossible goal, why is it still presented and publicized without hesitation?
I can only say that I have no answer - in addition to the words 'Great Leap Forward Thinking' and 'Planning Economic Thinking Resurgence'.
In fact, this is why more and more people feel that the Gree in the Dong Mingzhu era is less and less like the Gree in the Zhu Jianghong era.
I tend to think that the goal of 600 billion is by no means a decision made by Dong Mingzhu alone. The official manifestation is more reflected behind it.
The China Times report corroborated this speculation. The Huaxia Times quoted Gree Electric as saying that the goal of achieving 600 billion in 2023 was raised as early as the beginning of this year, but it has not been disclosed to the outside world. 'He said, 'This The goal seemed to be raised by the relevant government leaders at the time, and it was intended to prevent Gree from meeting the current situation.
The point is: Dong Mingzhu, who has always claimed to "fighting with them", why did you choose cooperation this time?
For a long time, people think that the development of southern coastal enterprises is better than that of mainland enterprises. An important reason is that the government has less intervention in business operations. However, this situation may change in Gree.
According to the China Business News reported on August 1, Zhu Jianghong, former chairman of Gree Electric, admitted in an interview with the media: 'The only concern after retirement is that Dong Mingzhu deviates from the technical route.'
In fact, people are worried that far more than Dong Mingzhu may deviate from Gree's technical route, but the expanding Grand Leap mentality.
Enterprises can arbitrarily propose a goal and cannot achieve it. If they enter a field at will and are frustrated, they will be seriously hurt to the enterprise and the image of the leader of the company.
A truly respected company must not be a topic enterprise – although its public attention may be high, it can always maintain its inner strength. In this respect, Huawei and Ren Zhengfei are the best.
Five years ago, Dong Mingzhu took the initiative and Lei Jun proposed '1 billion gambling gambling'. At present, Dong Mingzhu is very likely to win; five years later, Dong Mingzhu offered to set a grand goal of 600 billion yuan. This time, Dong Mingzhu can win her. alone?