Recently, the Economic Daily reporter visited relevant industry experts and comprehensively analyzed the domestic and international market situation. After comprehensively analyzing the low-protein diet formula, increasing the import of hybrids and expanding domestic production, China's soybean imports are expected to decrease by 10 million tons in 2018. the above.
Promote low-protein diet feed formulations to substantially reduce soybean demand
At present, China is promoting the application of low-protein diet technology in the breeding of pigs, broilers and laying hens in the country, by adding amino acids, reducing the proportion of protein materials such as soybean meal without affecting the production performance. Academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences Researcher Yin Yulong's research shows that pigs are fed a low-protein diet (with a 3% reduction in protein addition) and supplemented with four limiting amino acids at different growth stages, and pork yield and quality are not affected. According to Guangdong Hengxing Feed Industry Co., Ltd. Zhang Haitao, technical director of the company, said that at present, China's lysine production capacity is sufficient, and the use of low-protein diet formula technology can reduce the consumption demand of soybean meal by about 5% to 7%, equivalent to about 5 million tons of soybeans. Therefore, through low protein days 4. The grain and feed formula reduces the actual consumption demand of soybean in China and is operable and sustainable.
Increased imports of chowder can effectively replace soybean imports
The protein raw materials in the feed not only rely on soybean meal, but also from other miscellaneous meal, such as rapeseed meal, cotton aphid, sunflower kernel, palm kernel meal, etc. Currently, the use of soybean meal in the feed is high, and the price is a major reason. As the price of soybean meal rises, it will become economically viable to choose other alternatives. Li Qiang, chairman and chief consultant of Shanghai Huiyi Consulting Co., Ltd., said that in addition to soybean meal in 2018, the top three major export products of oyster products are Palm kernel meal, sunflower kernel meal and rapeseed meal, of which, the export of palm kernel meal is 7.23 million tons, the export of sunflower kernel is 6.84 million tons, and the export of rapeseed meal is 6.13 million tons. China's current palm kernel meal, sunflower kernel meal and vegetables The annual import volume of seed meal is not large, among which, palm kernel meal imports are 450,000 tons, sunflower kernels are imported 150,000 tons, and rapeseed meal imports are 1 million tons, which has a large room for growth. According to Li Qiang’s calculation, this year’s Importing 2.5 million tons of rapeseed (equivalent to 1.5 million tons of rapeseed meal), 3.5 million tons of sunflower kernel meal, 3 million tons of palm kernel meal, theoretically can replace about 4.8 million tons of soybean meal consumption, equivalent to about 6 million tons of imported soybeans.
Improve the self-sufficiency level of domestic oil materials
Of course, to alleviate the situation that China's oilseed oil supply is subject to people's situation, it is inseparable from the development of its own oil industry. On May 16, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs revealed at the press conference that this year's soybean planting area will increase by 10 million mu. Academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering Fu Tingdong, a professor at Huazhong Agricultural University, said that there are about 150 million mu of winter arable land and tidal flats in the Yangtze River Basin in China, of which 60 million mu can be used first. If the winter idle land realizes one season of rapeseed and one season of soybean rotation, it can produce at least 10 million tons per year. 20 million tons of oil crops.
In addition, the loss of aquaculture industry has also led to a decrease in demand for soybean meal. Since March this year, domestic pig prices have fallen rapidly, and pig breeding profits have entered a loss range. In April and May, the number of live pigs and able sows continued to decline and the number of live pigs continued to fall. The number of indicators, weight and other indicators fell sharply, resulting in a 1.3% year-on-year decline in domestic soybean meal consumption from April to June. It is expected that demand for soybean meal in the next few months may continue to be lower than the same period last year, which will continue to curb domestic soybean consumption demand.
