China Auto Circulation Association released the ' China auto dealer Inventory Early Warning Index survey ' (Vehicle Inventory alert index) shows that July 2018 auto dealers Inventory Early Warning index of 53.9%, the chain down 5.3%, up 1.4%
, the inventory warning index is above the cordon. July, higher-end luxury and imported brands have been released by a demand for high-end luxury and imported brands that have been built up by tariffs, and demand for the impact of the college entrance examination last month was released this month, as dealers are generally more cautious about the second half of the market, increasing sales and selling at price.
The above factors have made July data better than expected, but the market has not really warmed up.
From the subindex situation: Inventory index, the number of employees fell on the chain, the market demand index, the average daily sales index, the operating conditions index rose on the chain. From the regional index: July, the national Total index was 53.9%, the North District index was 51.2%, the western index was 53.5%, the southern index was 56.8%, and the eastern index was 54.1%.
Each region index fell in the chain.
From the point of view of the brand type index: July, import and luxury brand index, joint venture brand index, the independent brand index was lower than last month. In the August, new entrants and other factors will spur demand.
But August sales are expected to remain negative year-on-year.
The Chinese Automobile Circulation Association suggested that the distributor should according to the actual situation, rationally estimate the actual market demand, the reasonable control stock level, prevents the stock pressure to be too big, causes the business risk.
Attached: Auto dealers inventory Warning Index survey and regional classification criteria
1, automobile dealer Inventory Early Warning Index investigation explanation As early as March 2010, China Automobile Circulation Association put forward the ' Inventory Early Warning system ' construction, and from July 2010 began to carry out regular car, dealer Inventory survey.
2012, in order to more forward-looking response to industry dynamics, the association after more than half a year of research, to build a car dealer inventory Early Warning index. Automobile Dealer Inventory Early Warning Index survey Objective: First, grasps the market pulse. Through the national brand of Car dealers inventory status survey, timely grasp of the overall situation of the industry, forecast the future market trends; second, auxiliary control decision-making. Provide accurate information to relevant departments by understanding the change of distributor stock. Third, monitor operational risk.
Timely reflect the fluctuations in the market production and marketing, for the manufacturers to arrange a reasonable plan for the distributors to develop sales strategy and control the operating risk for reference. According to the principle of PMI compiling, the inventory Early Warning index adopts the method of expanding index, and 50% is used as the line of Ron-withered. 50% below are in reasonable range.
The higher the stock early warning index, the lower the demand of the market, the higher the stock pressure and the greater the risk of operating pressure. In order to enhance the forward and predictive function of inventory early warning index, based on PMI index construction ideas and methods, inventory early warning index in the selection of indicators and car inventory changes closely related indicators to form a comprehensive index, related indicators mainly include: auto market total demand, 4S store volume, turnover rate, price changes, sales volume changes,
Changes in inventory, number of employees, liquidity and operating conditions. Distributor Inventory Survey this month mainly for 2016 China Automotive Industry Hundred dealers Group.
Covering most provinces of the country more than 1000 4S stores, and has a wide range of brand coverage, covering the domestic market, the main mass production and sales of imports, joint ventures, independent car brands 55.
2, Regional classification criteria
North District contains provinces and regions: Beijing, Hebei, Henan, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi
Southern region contains provinces and regions: Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi
Eastern region contains provinces and regions: Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, Tianjin, Zhejiang