I. Economic operation of the machinery industry from January to June 2018
The total industrial output value increased year-on-year, and the growth rate has dropped.
Gross industrial output value: From January to June, the total output value of the machinery industry declined. From January to June, the total industrial output value of Wuxi Machinery Industry increased by 13.3% year-on-year. Compared with the same period of last year, the growth rate of industrial output value dropped by 1.2 percentage points. The equipment manufacturing industry fell by 2.5 percentage points, the automobile manufacturing industry fell by 12.4 percentage points, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry fell by 3.8 percentage points, and the instrument and meter manufacturing industry fell by 24.1 percentage points. The metal products manufacturing industry grew by 2.7 percentage points, railways, ships, The growth rate of aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry was 10.8 percentage points. On the basis of the year-on-year growth of 10.7% in the special equipment manufacturing industry, the growth rate increased by 12.5 percentage points.
The growth rate of the industrial output value of the machinery industry is 2% lower than that of the city's industry. Among them, metal products manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery manufacturing, instrumentation manufacturing, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing growth rate are lower than the city. Industrial average. The growth rate of general equipment manufacturing is 5 percentage points higher than that of the city's industry. The manufacturing of special equipment is 8.2 percentage points higher than that of the city's industry. The automobile manufacturing industry, which has the largest growth rate of the machinery industry in our city, grew 8.7% year-on-year. On the basis of the growth of 21.1% in the previous year, it fell by 12.4 percentage points. Among them, the auto parts and passenger car power units all experienced double-digit decline.
The ratio of the total industrial output value of the industry to the output value of new products from January to June
(II) The output of major products increased, and some products fluctuated
From January to June, among the 120 major products monitored by the machinery industry, 80 kinds of products increased year-on-year, accounting for 66.67%; 40 products were down year-on-year, accounting for 33.33%. 16 of them were from the previous year. The decline turned to year-on-year growth, and the output of 27 products changed from the previous year's growth to the same year-on-year decline.
Among the main products of the equipment manufacturing industry, the decline in electrical power transmission and transformation products, power machinery, and shipbuilding has increased. Bearings, boilers, and photovoltaic solar equipment have increased. Among them, steel strands decreased by 6.6% year-on-year. The power cable dropped by 30% year-on-year, the optical fiber decreased by 3.2%, the engine decreased by 13.3%, the civilian steel ship decreased by 16.2%, the power station boiler increased by 1.7%, the industrial boiler increased by 9.7%, and the rolling bearing increased by 9.6%. The battery increased by 18.3%.
(3) The efficiency maintained a small increase, and the growth and decrease of the sub-sectors were different. Compared with the same period of last year, the year-on-year growth rate dropped significantly.
From January to June 2018, there were 2,492 enterprises above designated size in the machinery industry, and 559 loss-making enterprises. The loss of loss-making enterprises was 22.4%, down 1.06% year-on-year, and the loss was 2.2 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year. The operating efficiency of the whole industry needs to be improved. From January to June, the main business cost of the machinery industry increased by 12% year-on-year, the sales expenses increased by 7.15%, the management expenses increased by 11.17%, the investment income decreased by 10.99%, and the total asset profit rate was 2.76%, down by 0.07 percentage points year-on-year.
Main business income: From January to June, the machinery industry realized the main business income of 302.896 billion yuan, an increase of 11.96% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.84 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, which was lower than the industry average of 1.64 percentage points during the same period. There were 5 sub-sectors compared with the same period of last year. Realizing double-digit growth. Last year, the two engines that boosted the growth of the machinery industry in our city—automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, increased by 3.7% and 5.4% respectively. Compared with the same period of last year, they fell 18.6 percentage points respectively. , 5.9 percentage points. The fall rate exceeded expectations.
Total profit: From January to June, the city's machinery industry realized a total profit of 20.508 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.92%, a decrease of 20.28 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, which was lower than the city's industry by 5.08 percentage points. In all seven sub-sectors. Among them, profit of 4 industries decreased year-on-year. Automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 12.9%. Railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing decreased by 10.9% year-on-year. Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry decreased by 0.6%, and instrument and meter manufacturing industry decreased by 2.8%. Among the three sub-sectors with year-on-year growth in profits, the metal products manufacturing industry grew by 39.3% year-on-year, and the general machinery manufacturing industry grew by 2.2% year-on-year. The special machinery manufacturing industry increased by 19.3% year-on-year. Special machinery manufacturing industry, total profit in January-June Become a new engine in growth.
(IV) The growth rate of foreign trade exports is higher than that of the same period of last year. The indirect impact of Sino-US trade war on machinery exports is greater than the direct impact.
From January to June, the export delivery value of the machinery industry was 42.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, and the growth rate was 1.9 percentage points higher than that of the whole city. The export of the seven sub-sectors of the machinery industry increased in an all-round way, except for the automobile manufacturing industry and the instrumentation manufacturing industry. Two digits. Among them, the metal products manufacturing industry increased by 14.1% year-on-year, the general machinery manufacturing industry increased by 21.8%, the special machinery increased by 12.4%, the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing increased by 15.2%, electrical machinery and Equipment manufacturing increased by 10.3% year-on-year.
Sino-US trade war, the biggest impact of our machinery industry is the new generation of information technology industry, high-end CNC machine tools and robots, aerospace equipment, offshore engineering equipment and high-tech ships, advanced rail transit equipment, energy-saving and new energy vehicles, power equipment , agricultural machinery, high-performance medical equipment and other fields.
From the perspective of industry distribution, emerging industries have a greater impact, such as aerospace, rail transit and other supporting blades, ring parts, high-end bearings, high-grade grinding machines, etc.; the impact on special machinery is greater than that of general machinery. Among them, with the oil industry, mining Industry, textile and garment industry, robotics and intelligent manufacturing of plastic machinery, textile machinery, pneumatic parts, hydraulic parts, etc. have a greater indirect impact. The indirect impact on textile machinery is expected to reach 10-20% of the total output value; The impact, mainly on mechanical and electrical products, generator sets and power transmission and transformation equipment, is estimated to be around 20%; the impact on the mold, forging, heat treatment industry is about 10%. It is estimated that the impact on exports to the United States is about 10 billion people.
Second, the outstanding problems reflected by current enterprises
Under the pattern of Sino-US trade warfare, combined with data analysis and enterprise research, in the current development situation and environment, the following key factors affecting the development of Wuxi machinery industry are: environmental protection, the Belt and Road Initiative, supply-side reform, intelligent manufacturing, transformation Upgrade. As a result, the outstanding problems reflected by the company mainly include the following aspects:
1, environmental protection or will become a key factor affecting the development of the machinery industry
The "Environmental Protection Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" was officially implemented on January 1, 2018. The State Council has clearly stipulated that all environmental protection tax revenues collected by local governments are owned by local governments. This will enhance the enthusiasm of local governments and reduce local financial pressures. Establishing a long-term management mechanism will have a positive impact. But at the same time, it should be seen that environmental protection may also become a double-edged sword. While forcing the technological advancement of enterprises, it will also crush the last straw of some enterprises.
2. The supply side reform has a long way to go, not a one-night event.
Under the current general situation of manufacturing enterprises, accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing, promote the deep integration of the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and the real economy, in the middle and high-end consumption, innovation leading, green low carbon, sharing economy, modern supply chain It is imperative to cultivate new growth points in areas such as human capital services. It is imperative to form new kinetic energy. However, we must also see that although market demand has recovered, it is still insufficient, and it requires a lot of money for the renovation and maintenance of in-service equipment. At present, there is still downward pressure on the macroeconomic environment, to de-capacity, and to de-leverage. If the drug is too urgent, a considerable number of SMEs may not die if the market environment improves significantly.
3. The market is fiercely competitive. The price of the product is difficult to improve. The weak market situation of the domestic demand for mechanical products is difficult to improve significantly in the short term.
The steel industry, coal, power and petroleum, and chemical industries, which are mainly used in the machinery industry, are generally in a period of deep adjustment of the industrial structure. Their equipment demand is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. The cost of raw materials and power energy has risen sharply, coupled with the continued rigidity of labor costs. Growth, which increases the cost of business operations, but also increases the difficulty of incremental recovery.
4. It is difficult to recruit, difficult to work, expensive, and become a common voice of enterprises.
5. The implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative effectively promoted the overseas export of the machinery industry.
In recent years, the city's machinery manufacturing enterprises have made great progress in expanding Southeast Asia, West Asia, North Africa and Europe and the United States. Since the beginning of this year, foreign exports have increased month by month. From January to June 2018, the value of foreign trade delivery increased by 13%. The US trade war has just begun, and many companies have no bottoming in the follow-up. The export volume of the machinery industry to the US is not large, and the direct impact is expected to be around 10 billion yuan, but the indirect impact of it cannot be underestimated. It is the working machine, the export bottleneck encountered by the machinery industry for the metallurgical, petrochemical, textile, military, electronics and other industries, which will have a major negative impact on the development of the machinery industry.
Third, issues worthy of attention and forecast for the whole year
(1) Although investment has rebounded, it is still lower than the growth rate of investment in the whole society.
From January to June 2018, the city's industrial fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) increased by 9.4% year-on-year. National manufacturing investment increased by 5.2% year-on-year. Wuxi Machinery Industry fixed assets investment was 34.83 billion yuan, up 3.2% year-on-year. 1-6 The manufacturing of metal products in the machinery industry in the city decreased by 24.6% year-on-year, the general machinery manufacturing decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, the special equipment manufacturing industry increased from the downturn, up by 28.4%, the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 5.7%, and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry year-on-year. Growth of 8.2%, instrumentation manufacturing increased by 27.5. Although the investment situation improved slightly, it was still lower than the city's industrial fixed asset investment and the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society.
(2) The price rise space is very limited, and the conduction is difficult
From the price index released by the National Bureau of Statistics in April 2018, the ex-factory price of industrial producers rose by 4.7% year-on-year in June, the price of production materials rose by 6.1% year-on-year, the price of raw materials industry rose by 8.8%, and the price of processing industry rose by 4.6%. The total ex-factory price of producers rose by about 0.11 percentage points. The price index of the industrial industrial producers was rising. The price index of the machinery industry was 99.9%, down 0.1 percentage points. The general equipment of the machinery industry rose by 1.7% year-on-year. 1.3%, the auto manufacturing price index rose 0.3% year-on-year, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry rose 0.9% year-on-year, and the instrumentation manufacturing industry fell 0.6% year-on-year, far below the industrial producers' ex-factory price index.
(III) The pace of transformation and upgrading has accelerated, and the output value of new products has increased year-on-year.
From January to June, the transformation and upgrading of Wuxi Machinery Industry accelerated the pace of technological innovation. The supply-side reform achieved remarkable results. The new product added value was 45.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% higher than the city's industrial growth rate of 5.4 percentage points. In seven sub-sectors. In addition to the automobile manufacturing industry, the growth rate exceeded double digits. Among them, the metal products industry grew by 11.7%, the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 33.3%, and the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 24.7%, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other. The transportation equipment manufacturing industry grew by 24.6% year-on-year, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 18.1%, and the instrumentation manufacturing industry grew by 92.5%. As the automobile manufacturing industry that drove the machinery industry growth engine last year, it dropped by 18%. The manufacturing industry has fallen back from the continuous growth of industrial output value, total profit, and new product output value, which deserves our high vigilance.
Comparison of the increase in output value of new products of Wuxi Machinery Industry from January to June
(iv) Forecast of the development of the machinery industry throughout the year
The Central Economic Work Conference has clarified the general tone of economic work of 'stable progress and progress', which is the biggest advantage for the machinery industry, which is conducive to the mechanical industry to further promote structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading. With the deepening of various work, relevant supporting The introduction of policies, the implementation of 'strong foundation engineering', 'intelligent manufacturing' and other major technological transformation and upgrading projects, the industrial policy will further release the development of the machinery industry and the economic operation. From a micro level, intelligence It is the general trend of the development of the machinery industry in the future. Realizing the intelligentization of construction machinery can not only greatly improve the overall level of manufacturing in China, but also reduce labor intensity and operating costs, and help customers better improve their profitability. The capacity of this market should not be underestimated. The pressure of environmental protection, and the peak replacement period of equipment from around 2020, also provided a new growth point for the machinery industry. However, due to the declining policy effect and the high growth base in 2017, the growth rate in the second half of the year Will decline. Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry is eliminated by the coal-fired power industry, suspended construction, slow construction The growth rate will also slow down. In addition, China's large-scale power grid transformation is nearing completion, and the market capacity of the power transmission and transformation industry will be sharply reduced, which will result in a large loss of orders for its supporting small and medium-sized enterprises. Considering the machinery industry The upstream raw material base price is gradually increasing. These factors may have a negative impact on the growth of Wuxi machinery industry in the second half of the year.
We have predicted that the growth rate in the second half of the year should be lower than that in the first half of the year, but it does not rule out the tail-end effect at the end of the year. The growth rate of total industrial output is about 13%, and the growth rate of main business is 10%. Up and down, the year-on-year increase in total profit should be better than the first half of the year. Export delivery value will also increase.