PV InfoLink's news shows that on the evening of July 30, the Indian Ministry of Finance and Taxation officially announced: According to the final proposal of the General Administration of Trade Relief (DGTR), solar energy from China, Malaysia and other developed countries began on July 30. The battery (regardless of whether it is packaged as a component) imposes a 25% guaranteed tariff. According to the announcement of the Ministry of Finance of India, the following tariffs will be imposed according to the value of the imported goods. If there is anti-dumping tax in the future, the tariff will be deducted after the deduction of anti-dumping duties. tax rate.
Since developing countries outside China and Malaysia alone do not export more than 3% of India's total imports, and the total exports to India do not exceed 9% of India's total imports, the safeguards tax can be waived.
Since the European and American double-reverse, India's attitude toward the levy of photovoltaic protection tax has been repeated, and now officially announced the beginning of the levy, although to some extent gives Indian local manufacturers the opportunity to increase market share. But in the short term, India's domestic production capacity Insufficient, still depends on imports. Therefore, the implementation of defensive tariffs may only bring negative factors such as increased costs for the Indian market.
For China components with a market share of about 90% in India, the main impact behind this is that the price is not as competitive as it used to be.
PV InfoLink expects that the price of China's component shipments to India will have to fall further to the cost line in the short term to maintain competitiveness. After 531, the cost of component packaging in China has dropped to around US$0.1-0.11 per watt, making vertical integration. The full cost of the conventional polycrystalline modules of the plant currently only needs 0.23-0.24 US dollars per watt. If the price is 0.24 US dollars per watt of conventional polycrystalline components, the price in India will be raised to 25%. 0.3 US dollars per watt, which is equivalent to the price of local components made in India in the near future.
'In the second half of India 2018 and even in the first quarter of 2019, the market will weaken. The Indian market has become more uncertain. For the domestic small and medium-sized manufacturers that have previously regarded India as a life-saving seaport, the pressure will be even greater. Cao Junru, an analyst at EnergyTrend, said that in the future, small and medium-sized factories can only try to lower prices to grab the market. However, due to the smaller market capacity in India, it may be affected by these price reduction pressures. The scale will also be limited.
'At the same time, in the international market, although Europe, Australia and the Middle East and North Africa still have growth, on the one hand, these growth rates cannot offset the reduction in China. On the other hand, this international layout is basically the world of big factories. Small and medium-sized factories will still be under a lot of pressure. 'Cao Junru said.
Photovoltaic expert Wang Shujuan also said that in the first half of 2018, the Indian PV market accounted for about 20% of China's exports. After the closure of the US market, the introduction of the Indian protection tax will make it difficult for China Overseas to find more than 6GW.
Cao Junru pointed out that in the case of both internal and external markets shrinking, 'technology pursues progress, costs continue to decrease, and capacity and estuary spread risk. Basically, these directions are still not taken away. Big manufacturers will have a better chance to survive. The difficulty remains. Outdated production capacity. '
As reported in the 21st Century Business Herald, for companies such as GCL, Trina Solar, Chint New Energy, Longji, etc., which have long been established in India, they can continue to receive local protection without being affected by the protection tax. Cost advantage.
