At the end of July, the cold weather of 2018 was close to the end, and the production and sales of the air-conditioning industry once again became a common concern of the entire home appliance industry.
Looking back at the market performance in the past two years, the sum of sales in June and July of the cold year accounted for almost one-third of the annual air-conditioning sales. Thanks to the national 'barbecue' model, the entire air-conditioning industry was in danger, and the 2015 cold The annual amount of double-declining haze; entering the 2017 cold year, the high temperature weather continues to exert force, and then superimposed the lag effect of the real estate market, the urbanization process is accelerating, the e-commerce platform is rapidly infiltrating and other factors, the domestic air-conditioning market retail volume increase is close to 30% , set the highest sales record in history.
As for the performance of the 2018 cold year, some people in the industry are clamoring for their sleeves to go up quickly. Some people even say that the selling situation is not very stressful. The whole industry situation is not clear. To this end, the China National Grid Corporation research team is deeply involved in the enterprise. Visited.
'One word, Wang!'
Production companies are generally optimistic about the production and sales situation
During the investigation, most of the country suffered heavy rains, involuntary trips were cancelled, and travel delays abound. The survey has not yet begun, and the situation of air-conditioning sales due to heavy rain in social platforms is also everywhere.
Unexpectedly, however, most air-conditioning manufacturers are optimistic about the air-conditioning sales situation in the 2018 cold year.
'From the current production and sales progress, the 2018 cold year air-conditioning market is a word, Wang! ' An air-conditioning company official told China National Grid, whether it is from the enterprise shipment or terminal sales, the market growth situation is still Relatively good.
The source explained that from the current statistics, the growth rate of the air-conditioning market has maintained a double-digit growth, although it is much inferior to the growth figure of the 2017 cold year, but based on the slowdown after the previous years, now The market performance has been quite good. The word 'wang' is also based on the expectation of a fall in the market after the high base last year.
In addition to the air conditioner company, the production and sales of compressor companies also confirmed the market for air conditioner production and sales to a certain extent.
'The production and sales of air-conditioner compressors are good this year. It is roughly estimated that the domestic market will increase by about 20%. ' The relevant person in charge of GMCC told China National Grid that although it is impossible to derive specific data on air-conditioner production and sales based on compressor increase data, the increase in air-condition production and sales remains. In the two-digit number is still relatively certain.
In addition to the direct perception of upstream parts companies, the performance of new brands, small and medium-sized brands is also a barometer of the industry situation.
For the performance of each company's 2018 cold years, based on the survey, corporate data, market organization data, the United States, Haier, Aux is outstanding, production and sales growth is expected to be better than the industry average; due to Gree in the 2017 cold year base High, this year's growth is expected to decline somewhat; TCL, Hisense Kelon, Chigo and other companies are expected to continue to maintain growth momentum; new brands and small and medium-sized brands generally maintain a high growth rate.
'As of the end of June, the sales volume of Xinke air conditioners increased by about 280%, and the retail scale increased by 123%. It has already locked in the 2018 cold year win. Han Yihai, general manager of Xinke Electric's domestic marketing, said at a recent marketing conference that it is expected to be air-conditioned in the 2018 cold year. The sales scale will be around 1.2 million sets.
Relevant persons in the air-conditioning industry told China National Grid that in addition to the new section, the scale of air-conditioning production and sales of Meibo, Yuetu, etc. is also a million-level. Recently, a new air-conditioning brand in Guangdong has emerged, 'Xin Yingyan'. Roughly estimated, this year's new brand and small and medium-sized brand air-conditioning production and sales is about 6 million to 7 million sets.
'The industry can also launch new brands and the growth of small and medium-sized brands is very high, which shows that the air-conditioning industry still has a lot of room for development this year.' The source said.
'Much worse than last year'
The terminal dealer said that the pressure is very high
4. Unlike the optimism of production companies, terminal retailers are suffering in the past.
Originally June and July are the peak seasons for air-conditioning sales, but according to many physical store dealers, this year's air-conditioner sales are relatively deserted, and the season is not very good. The terminal sales are not smooth, the backlog of air conditioners, the funds are under pressure, and immediately Faced with the opening of the new cold year in August and the policy rebate, the pressure can be imagined.
'This year is very hot, but there are more rainy weather.' A home appliance dealer in North China told China National Grid that although she was psychologically prepared for the decline in sales after the New Year, she still did not expect sales to be so. difference.
'My store's air conditioner sales this year is probably only three or 40% last year. Last year, the market broke out and partially overdrafted demand. 'A home appliance dealer in Central China bluntly said that most home appliance dealers accounted for about half of the investment in air conditioner products. About two-thirds of the total funds, air-conditioning sales are not good, many people are not good this year.
Zhang Shaoshuo, head of the Home Appliances Dealer Alliance, said that apart from the weather factors and the factors that drove the market overdraft in the market last year, the changes in the property market regulation and the consumption environment in recent years are also important reasons for the poor sales of air conditioners and even the home appliance industry.
According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of 2018, a total of 76 new policies were introduced throughout the country, including restrictions on purchases, sales restrictions, and lottery. The restricted cities have been expanded to 50 cities, including 37 cities in the third and fourth tier cities. The most direct reflection of the regulatory policy is the decline in the growth rate of housing sales.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales area of commercial housing in 2017 was 169.08 million square meters, an increase of 7.7% over the previous year. Compared with the growth rate of commercial housing sales of 22.5% in 2016, the growth rate in 2017 dropped significantly. From January to May 2018 The sales area of commercial housing was 564.09 million square meters, with a growth rate of only 2.9%.
In terms of the consumption environment, the increase in household leverage will also have a negative impact on the consumer market.
Residents' leverage ratio is a common indicator for measuring the debt situation of residents. It is used to represent the proportion of household sector debt to GDP. According to public data, the leverage ratio of Chinese residents was only 3% in 1996 and only 18% in 2008, but residents since 2008. Leverage rate began to show rapid growth, doubling in just six years, reaching 36.4%. By 2017, the leverage ratio of residents has reached 49.0%. The increase in the proportion of residents' debt will, to a certain extent, restrain the consumption level of residents, and then Affect the market of related commodity markets.
'Consumption upgrades and opportunities in the rural market are the more recent claims made by the home appliance industry in the past two years, but this is not as good as imagined.' Many dealers believe that on the one hand, many people are burdened with buying houses and paying debts. In fact, The disposable income is not necessarily plentiful, and the phenomenon of consumption upgrading and consumption 'downgrade' exists at the same time. Therefore, the effect of current consumption upgrading should not be overstated; on the other hand, the penetration rate of air conditioners and other household appliances in rural markets is indeed not high in cities and towns. But the massive outflow of population is also an objective fact, so the rural market may not be as 'fertile' as propaganda.
'In most rural areas, the young population is mostly elderly and children, and almost every household has color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners and other small appliances. ' A home appliance dealer said that rural air conditioners And the demand for other home appliances is not very strong.
Although most physical store dealers are more pessimistic, Zhang Shaoshuo told China National Grid that according to dealers in Guangxi and other places, the air-conditioning sales situation this year is still quite impressive.
According to the data of Ovi Cloud, the national air-conditioner ownership in 2016 is 90.9, the national level is 90.9, the town is 123.7, the rural area is 47.6, while the overall level of Guangxi is 73.3, the Guangxi town is 128.6, and the Guangxi rural area is 24.4. Excluding high latitude and high altitude. In other provinces affected by geographical factors, Shanxi, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Shandong, Shaanxi and other provinces still have considerable room for growth.
'Inventory has about 50 million units'
Industry people expect inventory to climb
As early as mid-March of this year, the air-conditioner inventory alarm has been sounded, and the industry has rumored that the air-conditioning inventory has reached 40 million sets. According to sources, in fact, the industry inventory reached 40 million units at the end of February, but the capacity of some small and medium-sized brands. Not for the attention of mainstream companies and mainstream market research institutions.
According to industry online monitoring data, as of the end of April, the total inventory of the air-conditioning industry was 39.41 million sets.
In the course of the investigation, the person in charge of the relevant company told China National Grid that the current industry inventory has climbed to around 50 million sets. According to the average sales volume in the peak season, 50 million sets of inventory need to be digested for at least half a year. The overall level of industry inventory has been High. If the terminal sales in the peak season are not smooth, the inventory may continue to climb.
'At present, the industry inventory is indeed climbing, but the appropriate inventory is also necessary, the production company will make appropriate adjustments according to production and sales. ' A production company official said.
During the investigation, the person in charge of the US air-conditioner told China National Grid that Midea Group had implemented the 'T+3' model very early, and the air-conditioning aspect was basically 'zero inventory', and there would be no inventory pressure.
The person in charge of TCL air-conditioning also said that there is a certain amount of inventory in the industry. However, TCL air-conditioning is to promote the rapid turnover of products in the channel through diligent and fast-selling methods. The inventory is still reasonable. TCL air-conditioning does not have 'de-stocking'. statement.
On July 18th, TCL 'i涟' series cabinet air conditioners detonated dealers through innovative crowdfunding. In just one week, crowdfunding broke through 200,000 sets.
'Innovative crowdfunding methods for organic catalysis of offline channels can directly ignite the enthusiasm of dealers, and achieve the listing is the amount. 'TCL air conditioning person in charge told China National Grid, TCL has long been exploring new retail, by pushing the two lines The integration of commercial terminals is conducive to the synergy of different channels and the comprehensive service.
Compared with the United States, TCL and other companies continue to optimize the 'top design' of the production and sales system. At present, most home appliance companies in the industry still adopt the distribution model of the goods, which not only brings great pressure to the dealers. Businesses also bring great risks.
In this regard, many terminal dealers have called for home appliance manufacturers to further optimize the production and sales system, change the traditional mode of printing, establish a new channel system, and upstream and downstream enterprises to rationally rationalize the relationship between production and sales, in order to better explore market demand, better Serving consumers. Otherwise, more dealers 'running roads' events may occur.