On July 25, US President Trump and the visiting EU President Juncker announced more than two hours after the talks that the US and European sides agreed to no longer add punitive tariffs during the continuation of the consultation. This gives the two sides of the Atlantic a trade. Friction upgrade situation pressed the pause button.
In the past few days, Trump has proposed a 'three zero plan' for 'zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and non-automotive products zero subsidies'. The disclosure of relevant details by the US and Europe is a 'one paper statement, two interpretations' .
At a political rally in the US Midwestern agricultural state of Iowa on the 26th, Trump exclaimed excitedly to the audience: 'We just opened the door to Europe for your farmers...you just got a huge market' In order to increase the audience's attention and visual effects, he also produced a green baseball cap with the words 'Make the American farmers great again'. However, recent poll data shows that this was in the 2016 general election. In the state that supports him, Trump's popularity index is becoming bleak.
On the same day, US Trade Representative Wright Heze said in a congressional hearing: 'Our view is that we are discussing agriculture, the full stop.'
Unfortunately, on the other side of the Atlantic, EU officials said: 'Agriculture is not part of the (negotiating), only the matters explicitly mentioned in the statement are.'
French President Mark Long and Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez also joined the ranks. Mark Long said that he is not in favor of negotiating a large agreement like the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) because a good trade agreement can only be established On the basis of balance and reciprocity, it is not subject to any threat. He opposes the integration of agriculture into any trade agreement, 'I believe that in the environment, health or food, we should not suppress or lower any European standards.'
Sanchez expressed his desire to 'defend the (EU) Common Agricultural Policy'. He said: 'Spain does not believe in unilateralism, nor does it believe that a particular economy imposes its own policies and standards in international trade.'
Why are the attitudes of Europe and the United States on agricultural issues so different?
As we all know, agriculture has always been a very delicate area of trade on both sides of the Atlantic. Both sides are trying to protect and upgrade their agricultural production. According to EU data, the EU provides agricultural subsidies of up to 59 billion euros per year, equivalent to 68 billion US dollars. The Economist quoted data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as saying that the various subsidies provided by the US government to farmers in 2016 were about $33 billion.
In fact, the sharp confrontation between the United States and Europe on agricultural issues is one of the main reasons for the final abortion of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership negotiations over three years. Europe has proposed 'Geographical indications', trying to ban American products with similar brand names entered the EU market and were resolutely opposed by the US; Europe also refused to enter the US GM products.
All of this reflects the deep concern of Brussels: Europe's old family-style agricultural business model cannot compete with the modernization of American grouping, although the Wall Street Journal quoted US government statistics as shown last year by the EU against the United States. Agricultural trade has a surplus of 9.4 billion US dollars.
Although some major EU leaders refused to include agriculture in Trump's “three zeros” trade agreement negotiations, the EU is still committed to advance. EU spokesperson Mina Andreeva is Brussels told reporters: 'If you read through the joint statement... you will find that there is no mention of agriculture in the statement, but there are references to farmers and soybeans. That is part of the discussion, and we will continue to advance.'
However, is the EU really capable of helping Washington solve the soybean dilemma that arises from China’s counter-attacks?
Bloomberg gave a negative answer. The report said that the European market is one of the few alternatives for the US soybean farmers, but it is far from China's purchasing power. Last year, China imported soybeans from the US for $12.3 billion, while EU imports only It is estimated to be 1.6 billion U.S. dollars. It is estimated that the demand for soybeans in the United States in 2018-2019 is about 15.3 million tons, which is less than one-sixth of the original purchasing power of China. The Trump administration has launched a trade war against China and has caused China’s opposition. System measures, the loss of soybean sales to American farmers and the political pressure on Trump itself and Republican lawmakers in agricultural states are not allevitable in Europe.
Reuters reported in the report that the title is "Discount not discourse to boost US soy sales to EU", which means that the newly concluded agreement between the United States and Europe is only one for Europe to increase imports of US soybeans. Symbolic. Because, before the White House, due to market prices, the EU has begun to increase imports of US soybeans, and it is expected that the price of US soybeans arriving in August will be 20 US dollars lower than that of South American soybeans. Officials told AFP that although Europe agreed to increase imports of US soybeans, it will eventually be determined by the European market.
The US "Mother Jones" pointed out that US soybeans account for about one-third of the EU's total imports. Even if Europe increases imports, it will have limited help for US soybean exports. Today, in Europe and the United States, foreign trade negotiations and US financial subsidies background Next, US soybean prices have rebounded to 8.59 US dollars per bushel, but the analysis of the University of Illinois believes that unless soybean prices can rise to $10.05 per bushel, US soybean farmers still can't make a profit.
For US soybean farmers, they need a stable export market rather than a government relief check, and the new European market that the Trump administration is looking for is not so much appetite to eat the soybeans rejected by China. For more than 3.1 million farmers in the United States, the Chinese market they have been working on for decades has been lost. This is because the relief check can not make up for it.
