In just a few years, as the market size of the solar industry has grown from 50 GW to 100 GW, companies are increasingly demanding differentiated production, especially for companies entering the market or re-strategizing companies.
In order to develop new capacity, providing more efficient or lower cost products has always been an ideal way to obtain funds, and the solar industry has made a lot of efforts in this regard.
Sadly, most of the attempts made in the past have failed. The commonality of these attempts is that the equipment supply chain drives the development of polysilicon staging projects. But new entrants do not seem to see tomorrow, and many venture capitalists have suffered losses.
In the past 2-3 years, along with the marketing craze and the ambitious statements of many companies, the focus has returned to n-type batteries. However, let us go to the false. In tracking the real production situation, we will definitely find out The upward trend will support the market's heat and investment level to move forward.
This paper reveals the development of n-type products in the photovoltaic industry, subdividing the n-type technology into three sub-categories: back contact, heterojunction and all other products.
The basic data is derived from the analysis report compiled by PV-Tech's internal research team, which can be obtained from the PV Production and Technology Quarterly.
For the availability of n-type components, the performance of related components, quality, reliability, and rigorous evaluation of utility solar project companies/technologies, the meaning of these components forms part of the PV ModuleTech 2018 conference. PV ModuleTech 2018 Conference will Held in Penang, Malaysia from October 23-24, 2018.
Why is n type?
For users of solar modules, talking about a few carrier life or surface recombination speeds, or sounding more like physical rather than ROI, is basically a wrong topic.
Of course, understanding physics is important, especially if you are promoting the development of advanced battery processing technology. But for developers and EPC companies, the following are more suitable for their conclusion about n-type.
In terms of intrinsic properties, the performance of the n-type solar cell matrix is better. The battery efficiency is much higher than the industry standard (P-type polycrystal) in recent years. Therefore, the component power (components of similar size under standard test conditions) gains up to several Ten watts. Obviously, this will bring space-related advantages, which can improve the calculation of the leveling electricity cost based on the reduced system capital expenditure/Bos cost.
In addition, n-type high temperature performance is superior to all p-type products (single crystal and polycrystalline). Like First Solar's thin film modules, the n-type power factor depends on the temperature. In particular, considering the utility solar power station ( In fact, almost all solar modules in direct sunlight are usually operated at temperatures above the standard test conditions. There is a view that the comparison of all solar modules should be done at 70 degrees.
Due to manufacturing quality, testing and repeatability, n-type substrates are also less prone to various degradations, which directly means reliability and lifetime performance (return on investment).
The above issues are not new. However, it is interesting to note that in the past few years, many n-type new visitors have tried to explain these issues, and at the same time, they are working to increase the number of new production lines and to understand the production efficiency, output and distribution goals. practice.
As of now, the only problem that hinders the solar industry's choice of n-type as a mainstream product is the level of capacity (annual demand ratio tends to be about 5%) and manufacturing costs (including silicon availability). Therefore, this explains why the solar industry has every Everyone needs to pay close attention to the reasons for n-type companies, investment and expansion plans. The long-term view held by many people is that the growth of n-type market share will only increase year by year. The explanation for this problem is also this. The basis behind the long-term perspective.
Why can't n type benefit from economies of scale like p-type?
The photovoltaic industry is proud to add a passivation layer on the back of a p-type single crystal cell (PERC battery) to reduce the production cost and make the component sell for 35 cents/W while maintaining a low (positive) gross profit margin. Push p-type polycrystalline solar cells from 3 gate lines to 5 grid lines.
Despite these and other less-disclosed issues, the p-type community has consistently increased p-cell efficiency from 15-18% to 18-21% over a five-year period, for developers and EPC companies. This stage is also the stage with the highest output and the most help in the industry.
In this regard, it should be noted that in large-scale production, the best performance estimates that p-types can achieve (mainly from research groups or early adopters) have been far surpassed. In fact, in 2018 At the PV CellTech 2018 conference in March, multi-GW-class leading p-type battery manufacturers showed their roadmaps that would allow p-type monocrystalline cells to achieve an average efficiency of 22-23% in the next few years.
At the PV CellTech conference, the author asked Professor Martin Green of the University of New South Wales a question. What is the most surprising thing about the current battery performance of the 100 GW-scale PV industry. One of the answers is that no one thought of it. The knowledge gained from mass production drives performance gains.
Therefore, an obvious question is: If you want to upgrade to 10GW or 100GW, what kind of development will n-type production? At present, n-type (especially IBC and HJT) performance level is in the leading position in the industry, but with any manufacturer today Compared with the highest GW-class capacity, how much potential is available for mining? Of course, if IBC/HJT (or two hybrids) reach this level of capacity, then the default solar industry can solve the current supply and cost challenges.
Therefore, perhaps people do not need to pay much attention to the decreasing function between p-type single crystal PERC (30GW+ capacity level, cost structure and p-type polycrystalline height mixing) and n-type battery, because this comparison is not performed at the same level. The question people should ask is: If every battery has 5-10 large production plants with a capacity of tens of GW, how do you compare these battery concepts?
At the same time, let us return to the current N-type growth in the industry.
Annual production capacity increased from 2GW to 5GW in five years
Until a few years ago, only a few companies in the photovoltaic industry mainly used three 'different' methods to produce n-type solar modules: back contact solar cells (or interdigitated back contacts, IBC), front contact doping/intrinsic a-Si (passivation) thin layer (heterojunction) cells and n-type cells that are more similar to conventional p-type solar cell processing, but can be back passivated/diffused.
Known as an advocate of IBC batteries, SunPower compares the performance levels of all n-type (and all other) products on the market. IBC batteries still maintain market leadership today.
Panasonic has inherited Sanyo's heterojunction equipment in Japan and Malaysia. For a time, Panasonic was the only company to offer this technology. Other companies are now entering the field of n-type solar cell production, which I will discuss below.
Compared with IBC, heterojunction (or HJT) performance level is slightly lower, but the power is higher than other n-type. Of course, HJT's strengths can also be combined with back contact, but currently limited to research and development, can not be used for large Scale production.
In the past, the 'other n-type' battery also carried out some pilot production activities. About 10 years ago, through the technology transfer agreement signed with the European Research Institute ECN (Yingli 'Panda' series products), Yingli Green Energy expanded several Production line, this is the real beginning of the mass production of this type of battery. However, in the past few years, this technology category has encountered the most fierce competition, especially the success of LG Electronics in Korea and several new China The success of the company.
The net result of the new capital investment is that the number of (meaningful) n-type battery manufacturers has increased to about 20, and many other companies have participated in R&D or cooperated with research institutes to develop projects. Therefore, global n-type batteries Production has increased from 2GW in 2013 to more than 5GW this year. As shown below.
LG Electronics becomes the leading manufacturer of megawatts of n-type products in 2017
In 2017, LG Electronics led the photovoltaic industry with a low profile, with n-type production capacity higher than all other companies. To a large extent, this is due to the company's aggressive expansion of production capacity in South Korea in the past few years, and also because of the US market before the 201 case. .
A closer look at the specific process flow of the LG N-type battery can be found as a whole to look at some other development trends in the n-type field, and these development trends are not compatible with mainstream p-type battery production.
At present, except for a few new Chinese players, all n-type manufacturers have some form of difference, from SunPower (with full internal intellectual property of the production line) to LG Electronics (multi-main gate and ion implantation) to other possibilities. Double-sided as a standard or (like SunPower) has solved the problem of how to use silicon wafers below 120 microns thickness. This is also the first area to use thin silicon and copper (not silver) to collect electricity.
Type n is the advantage for European/Western equipment suppliers
In the past few years, the successful development of n-type products can be traced directly to the participation of equipment suppliers. The technical knowledge of many European leading companies exceeds the customer base they serve, such as Meyerberg, INDEOtec, SCHMID, Von Ardenne, Singulus. And Timpress/Amtech. The way to operate in Japan – such as the traditional practices of Sanyo in Japan – has been beyond the reach of companies such as ULVAC and Sumitomo Heavy Industries, and exists in various forms in affiliated or licensed companies in Asia. Companies that previously sold a:Si coated PCV/PECVD equipment (ULVAC, Applied Materials, Jusung) will also have an impact.
At the moment, many of the new n-type production lines in operation in Asia and Europe use equipment from many of these companies. The n-type field (especially HJT and all other n-PERT/double-sided products) remains to be integrated according to standard process flows. In the next phase of 2019 and beyond, multi-GW projects will be added in the n-type expansion, so this area is also the focus of Chinese equipment suppliers.
Eliminate silicon usability concerns
Previously, it was believed that n-type production was limited, especially for n-type production, which relied on single-crystal silicon ingots. Until recently, single-crystal silicon ingots have become a niche market in a relative sense.
In fact, if it weren't for the Longji Group and Central Semiconductor, this limitation would still exist because the shortage of 5-inch wafers required for n-type battery production is higher than the conventional wafers supplied by companies such as GCL. 15-20%.
However, as Longji and Central Semiconductor expand the single crystal drawing into a 10-20 GW company's business, the production cost has reached the level that Asian suppliers have never achieved before (referring to all monocrystalline silicon wafers, not just n-types). Battery), everything has changed.
Almost overnight, monocrystalline silicon wafers have become a commodity supply. At present, people can almost think that the supply of n-type silicon wafers is a positive factor rather than a stumbling block. Currently, the n-type manufacturers' wafers are mainly On-demand, manufacturers need to determine the number of drawers using boron dopants or phosphorus dopants. The supply of silicon wafers for n-type batteries is unlikely to be oversupplied in the short term, given China's monocrystalline silicon wafers. The desire of leading suppliers to occupy the market, we can conclude that even if an additional number of GW of n-type capacity will be added in 2019, the supply chain can meet Chinese demand.
Heterogeneous junctions are still the first choice for new attendees
What is not mentioned above is that HJT is the focus of most new investors entering China, Europe and Russia's n-type market. Many of these companies are adding new production lines, and the rising production data is clearer. It made people see the success of this field, but in the window period of 2013-2018, the performance in this field was not satisfactory.
There are many drivers. For many Chinese companies, they are now eager to have 'Panasonic' quality/performance components. People also believe that if these companies can match battery efficiency in mass production, they can solve Panasonic and The Achilles heir faced by Sanyo in the past - the cost of production.
For others, turning to HJT is as simple as re-adjusting a-Si investment (eg Hevel Solar, 3Sun/Enel), and HJT is seen as a natural development route based on c-Si.
Mieberg and INDEOtec suppliers of important equipment have been vigorously researched and developed, and HJT is expected to develop into a multi-GW project with competitive cost structure.
PV ModuleTech and PV CellTech will continue to focus on n-type progress
In the past few years, we have focused on the new capacity planning of n-type batteries at the PV CellTech conference, especially HJT batteries. This provides valuable information for large-scale production in the next 2-3 years, when the downstream group can Make real choices based on new component suppliers and technologies.
The above issues are the main factors driving the PV CellTech conference, and PV ModuleTech focuses on the impact of component supply from the perspective of company strength, product quality and reliability. This year's PV ModuleTech 2018 conference in Penang (October 23, 2018) -24) Provides an ideal opportunity for global developers and EPC companies to accurately understand the availability of 2018 n-type components.
For many, this is just an opportunity to track the development of component technologies that affect their solar strategy in 2020 and beyond. For other companies, if the selected component suppliers and technologies can meet the requirements If the strict evaluation requirements and profitability requirements, then the conference will bring direct benefits.
