Straight Flush statistics show that as of July 19, 67 non-ferrous metals listed companies released first-half performance forecasts, 46 pre-history, accounting for 68.66%. The performance differentiation is obvious, the copper industry is outstanding, and the aluminum company's performance is declining. Small metals The company generally has good performance, cobalt and lithium continue to be beautiful. For the market situation in the second half of the year, industry insiders said that the cobalt lithium industry will usher in the inventory cycle, prices are expected to rise; basic metals are bullish on copper, nickel and aluminum.
Leading the copper industry
The seven copper companies all pre-hired in the first half of the year, mainly due to the rising price of copper products.
Yunnan Copper expects net profit of 220 million yuan to 2.8 billion yuan in the first half of the year, up 71.01%-117.65% year-on-year. During the reporting period, the company's production was running smoothly and continued to strengthen its management. With the main product electrolytic copper, sulfuric acid prices were year-on-year. Rising, the company's operating results rose year-on-year.
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. expects net profit of 380 million yuan to 440 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 61%-86% year-on-year. The company said that the company's main smelters Jinguan Copper and Jinlong Copper were shut down for maintenance in the same period last year. The output was affected by certain factors; the average price of cathode copper sold by the main products increased year-on-year, and the profitability of the main business increased.
The performance of listed companies in the aluminum industry is not good. Among the 11 companies that have announced the results of the first half of the year, only 5 pre-history. Jiaozuo Wanfang lost money for the first time. The company expects a loss of 120 million yuan to 160 million yuan in the first half of the year. Affected by the heating season, the production and sales of aluminum products decreased year-on-year, and operating income decreased year-on-year. In addition, the prices of raw materials such as coal, alumina, and prebaked anodes rose sharply, and operating costs increased significantly year-on-year.
During the reporting period, due to factors such as the sharp increase in the price of bulk raw and auxiliary materials, Yun Aluminum Group expects its net profit attributable to the parent company to decrease by approximately 66% in the first half of the year. In the first quarter of this year, aluminum prices were relatively low, while alumina and oil The price of large raw and auxiliary materials such as coke and anode carbon block increased by a large margin, causing the company to lose money.
Ping An Securities believes that the price of lead in industrial metals has increased in the first half of the year, while the prices of copper, aluminum and zinc have fluctuated. However, due to the low level of industrial metals in the first half of 2017, prices in the first half of 2018 are still growing year-on-year. It is expected that the performance of copper and lead-zinc companies in industrial metals will continue to grow in the first half of 2018; while the price of alumina, one of the main raw materials, is relatively firm and the cost pressure is high. The performance of aluminum companies in the first half of the year is under pressure.
Cobalt lithium tungsten and molybdenum industry performance
In terms of rare metals, 17 companies announced the first half of the year's performance forecast, 14 pre-history. It was found that companies with higher performance expectations are mainly concentrated in the cobalt, lithium, tungsten and molybdenum industries.
Hanrui Cobalt expects to achieve a net profit of 519 million yuan -557.8 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 282%-312% year-on-year. The company said that with the rapid development of the new energy battery industry, especially the demand for ternary lithium battery market increased. The company's cobalt product sales volume and price rose, becoming the main driving force for profit. At the same time, the company's investment project capacity was further released; copper and cobalt production lines continued technological transformation, copper and cobalt products production and sales increased steadily. Huayou Cobalt Industry It said that the production and sales volume of cobalt and ternary precursor products increased, and the main products maintained a high price. It is expected that the net profit in the first half of the year will increase significantly.
Lithium industry's performance growth is steady. Yanfeng Lithium expects to achieve net profit of 700 million yuan to 100 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 15%-65% year-on-year. The company said that the supply of raw materials is guaranteed, and the growth of production and sales of lithium products drives performance growth. Tianqi Lithium Industry expects net profit of 1.3 billion to 1.45 billion yuan in the first half of the year, up 40.69%-56.93% year-on-year. The company said that sales of lithium chemicals increased, revenue and profit increased.
Affected by factors such as environmental protection and production restrictions, the supply of tungsten and molybdenum continued to tighten. The price fluctuated upwards in the first half of the year, and the performance of related listed companies was brilliant.
Gold Molybdenum said that in the first quarter of 2018, the sales price of major molybdenum products increased compared with the same period of the previous year, which increased net profit in the first quarter by 59.764 million yuan. It is expected that the price of molybdenum in the second quarter will be higher than that of the same period of the previous year. Profits will increase substantially. Luoyang Molybdenum said that the market prices of major metal products such as cobalt, copper, molybdenum and tungsten have increased by a large margin year-on-year. The company's various segments have stable business operations, and net profit is expected to increase significantly in the first half of the year.
Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry expects net profit in the first half of the year to be 15.473.7 million yuan -185.568 million yuan, up 200%-250% year-on-year. The company said that the tungsten market in the reporting period is stable and good, the company's tungsten product sales price and sales gross profit margin year-on-year. Growth, it is expected that the operating results from January to June 2018 will be significantly improved compared with the same period of the previous year. Xianglu Tungsten Industry expects to achieve a net profit of 42.516 million yuan -536.74 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 15%-45% year-on-year. , Order volume growth, driving turnover and profit growth.
According to industry insiders, the cost of tungsten-molybdenum mining is increasing rigidly, the delineation of ecological protection red lines and the strengthening of safety and environmental protection supervision, as well as the introduction of environmental protection tax and the implementation of the resource tax law, which play a good supporting role in market prices.
High prosperity is expected to continue
For the market situation in the second half of the year, many institutions believe that cobalt lithium will still play the leading role.
Qi Ding, chief analyst of non-ferrous metals at Essence Securities, told reporters that the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to be strong. After the buffer period, high-end explosive models are expected to continue to emerge. It is expected to drive a strong replenishment of the new wave of cobalt industry chain. After the adjustment, it is expected to further innovate. Cobalt is still the industry with the strongest growth logic among the current colored varieties, and the revaluation of the cobalt plate is brewing.
Yang Chengxiao, chief analyst of Tianfeng Securities Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. believes that after half a year of industry chain active inventory cycle, the current inventory is extremely low. As the inventory gradually clears, the installed capacity of power batteries maintains rapid growth, and the production of cathode materials is gradually increased. Large. It is expected that the entire industry chain will usher in a strong replenishment cycle in the third quarter, which is expected to drive the rise in lithium prices.
Qi Ding said that in the third quarter, the expectation of further deterioration of the fundamental metal fundamentals will be alleviated. First, global liquidity is tightening, economic tightening expectations brought about by leverage are alleviated; Second, domestic real estate destocking characteristics are obvious, real estate investment growth rate The new start-up growth rate has gradually stabilized, the domestic steady growth, the downward adjustment of the 'expanding domestic demand' policy gradually exerted force; the third is to gradually enter the third quarter replenishment model. In the long run, the base metals will still benefit from the global economic recovery and reinflation The process, global priced revaluation of colored varieties will continue.
Qi Ding said that he is optimistic about the aluminum, copper and nickel industries. The aluminum supply end is still limited, and the new capacity is limited. At present, the downstream aluminum processing plant operating rate is gradually increasing, the third quarter consumption season continues, coupled with limited supply end elasticity, aluminum price It is expected to rise steadily.
From the fundamentals of the copper industry, the tight balance between supply and demand is expected to continue. In terms of demand, air-conditioning output is expected to increase year-on-year, and grid investment will increase in the second half of the year. The copper industry is expected to maintain a long-term bullish pattern.
For the nickel industry, Qi Ding believes that environmental protection 'review' continues to deepen, affecting some of the production capacity at the supply side; demand for 811 high-nickel ternary materials is expected to increase; in addition, the peak season for stainless steel consumption is coming, nickel prices are expected to be supported.
