The formation of a new energy automobile industry system has entered a period of steady growth
New energy vehicles are emerging industries with long industrial chains and involve the development of multiple industries; unlike the traditional automotive industry. 'Three powers' (batteries, motors and electronic controls) replace 'three big pieces' (engines, gearboxes and chassis) Become a key component of new energy vehicles. After a century of development, traditional cars have formed a mature and complete industrial chain. After years of market competition, as the threshold of asset investment in the automotive industry is getting higher and higher, the automotive industry has already A relatively stable pattern has been formed. The development of new energy vehicles will introduce more automotive industry systems that have joined the industry, and it will also bring more development opportunities.
The change of new energy vehicles to traditional vehicles not only in the change of driving force, but also provides a completely different industrial chain, driving the upstream and downstream development of related industries. The new energy automobile industry chain is shown in the following figure.
Figure 1: New energy vehicle industry chain
The Prospective Industry Research Institute released the "2018-2023 China New Energy Vehicle Industry Market Prospects and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" pointed out that since 2009, new energy vehicles have experienced the industrial introduction period, rapid growth period, and began to enter a stable growth period. Although the state's subsidies for new energy sources have begun to decline, in terms of technology, investment and other policy guidance, new energy vehicles still have kinetic energy for steady growth and maintain a compound growth rate of around 40%.
Figure 2: Stages of development of new energy vehicles
Five major trends in the development of new energy vehicles
——Traditional car enterprises accelerate the transformation layout
In 2018, the global coverage of BYD's new energy vehicles will be expanded from 200 to 400, mainly pushing micro-electric vehicles of less than 100,000 yuan. In addition, BYD will increase 30,000 charging facilities in 2019; Beiqi New Energy will release 'Optimus Prime Plan' Planned from 2018 to 2020, with Beijing, Xiamen, Guangzhou and other cities radiating, set up public transport operation platforms and echelon storage and transportation platforms for each city, build 1,000 power station and operate 100,000 vehicles; Geely will develop more Electric models, hybrid models and plug-in hybrid models, plans to launch more than five new energy models in 2018.
Figure 3: New energy layout for traditional car companies
——The prospect of sharing cars is bright, and the standard operation needs to be strengthened.
The advantages and hidden dangers of shared cars are self-evident. At present, most of the time-sharing cars on the market are new energy vehicles. Although they are free to dominate and attract users, the number of charging piles does not match the number of shared cars. And the lack of returning points, resulting in inefficient operation of the industry, the convenience of sharing cars.
Mobai travel, Didi Travel, US group and other Internet giants, BAIC, SAIC, Shouqi Group, Geely Automobile and other traditional automakers are still entering the new energy-sharing auto industry. With the expansion of the scale of shared car operations and The expansion of the operating area, the difficulty of operating the shared car and the increasing operational pressure, the industry's standard operation needs to be strengthened.
——Complete improvement of supporting industries
During the two sessions, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology pointed out that the charging infrastructure is still a short-board for the development of new energy vehicles in China. Although the new energy automobile industry has begun to take shape and the industrial chain is relatively complete, as the number of new energy vehicles continues to grow, The contradiction of insufficient supply of charging infrastructure has intensified, and the overall construction scale has been seriously lagging behind. Data show that as of the end of 2017, China's various types of charging piles reached 450,000, the pile-to-pile ratio was about 3.8:1, 1:1 from the national plan. There is still a big gap. Charging technology is the key to the development of electric vehicles. The charging trend of electric vehicles in the future will be combined with 'Private AC charging pile daily slow charging' and 'public fast charging and filling'. It is to speed up the construction of charging infrastructure, encourage wireless charging, intelligent charging, high-power charging technology innovation and industrialization, and support the construction and operation of hydrogen refueling stations.
Figure 4: Comparison of current situation and planning of new energy vehicle piles in China
——New energy technology route with Chinese characteristics
New energy vehicles include: Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), Pure Electric Vehicles (BEV), Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCEV), Hydrogen Engines and Gas Vehicles, Alcohol Ethers, Solar Cars and other new energy vehicles.
At present, the pure electric strategy has achieved initial results, but the drawbacks have begun to emerge. Therefore, the technical advantages of fuel cells, plug-in, and extended programs as technical supplements in certain application areas will receive more policy attention and support. In the future, we will focus on breaking through the core technologies of key components such as power batteries, high specific power and high durability fuel cell stacks. Distributed renewable energy will become the main energy source for power generation, and intelligent charging will lead to tremendous changes in energy structure.
——The power battery recycling system is gradually improved
At present, there are many problems in the recycling of new energy vehicle power batteries in China: The recycling laws and regulations are still not perfect, the recycling system is still not perfect, the recycling technology and process level need to be improved, and the recycling cost is high but the profit is difficult.
At the same time, the new energy vehicle power battery recycling system is accelerating, and the “New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Recycling Pilot Implementation Plan” is completed. This will systematically sort out and standardize the power battery structural design, connection method, process technology, and integrated installation standardization. At the same time, strengthen the corresponding laws and regulations on the recycling, transportation and storage of used power batteries, and further implement the power battery coding system and traceability system.
Figure 5: Five major trends in the development of new energy vehicles
