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The '531' PV New Deal announced that the impact on PV companies in the first half of the year was only one month, and the impact on PV power plant operators was small, but PV module companies have already felt the impact.
Among the 15 A-share PV companies that have been published by the interface journalists, nearly 90% (13) achieved profitability in the first half of the year. The total net profit was about 1.906 billion to 238 million, of which seven (accounting for 46.7%) The net profit of the company decreased compared with the same period of last year.
On June 1 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018 (hereinafter referred to as the '531' New Deal), which will control the new scale of photovoltaics and reduce the intensity of subsidies. Arranged for marketization and other matters.
The '531' New Deal has affected the installed capacity of domestic PV power plants to a certain extent. Since the fourth quarter of 2016, the photovoltaic industry has started to grow at a high rate for five consecutive quarters. In 2017, the domestic market increased by 53GW, a year-on-year increase of 53.6. %. Photovoltaic expert Wang Shujuan believes that after the '531' New Deal is issued, the new installed capacity in 2018 is expected to be further reduced to 25GW, accounting for only 47% of 53GW in 2017, far lower than previous market estimates.
The profit of photovoltaic enterprises will be affected, and the component companies bear the brunt, which has been reflected in the performance of the first half.
On July 8, Wang Bohua, secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that the profitability of PV companies was statistically analyzed. The net profit of more than half of the companies in the last year was down. In the first quarter of this year, there were 13 Continue to decline. Among them, the situation of component companies is particularly severe, the net profit rate has dropped below 1%, and some companies have even suffered losses. The photovoltaic industry has entered the era of 'micro-profit'.
According to statistics, in the first half of the year, sunflower (300111.SZ)'s net profit 'shrinking' situation was the most serious, with an estimated loss of 115 million to 120 million yuan, compared with a profit of 0.098 billion yuan in the same period last year. The company is mainly engaged in the research and development of solar cells and components. Production and sales, with an annual output of 160 million pieces of polycrystalline silicon, 180 million pieces of cells, and 600MW of photovoltaic modules.
'Affected by the policy, the demand for domestic PV products decreased, the company's sales revenue decreased sharply, the sales price dropped sharply, and the gross profit margin was low, resulting in a decrease in operating profit, but the related period expenses did not decrease. ' Sunflower explained in the forecast Reasons for changes in performance.
Weiwei (300317.SZ), which also focuses on the PV module business, expects net profit for the first half of the year to be between RMB 0.1 billion and RMB 0.4 billion, down 82.27%-95.57% year-on-year.
Wei Wei shares that due to the impact of the national macro policy, financial 'de-leverage' and the '531' PV new policy, the company's main EPC cooperation customers are tight, and the scale of power station investment is declining, resulting in the company's EPC business shrinking in the first half of the year and reducing revenue.
Component giant GCL integration (002506.SZ) released the performance revision report. It is estimated that the net profit for the first half of the year was 20.41 million to 30.22 million yuan, which was basically the same as that of the same period of last year. It is expected to change by -15%-25%. Among them, it is expected to have a maximum loss of 100 million yuan in the first half of the year. In 2017, the GCL-integrated component shipments were 4.84GW, ranking sixth in the world.
In response to the reasons for the change in performance, GCL integration said that although the '531' New Deal has had a certain impact on the installed capacity of domestic PV power plants, resulting in a decrease in domestic demand. However, it has already shifted its strategic focus to overseas markets, and the sales ratio in overseas markets has been 2017. In the first half of the year, 14% increased to about 50%. At the same time, the second quarter is the cyclical peak season of the photovoltaic industry. The company has sufficient orders and both production and sales are booming.
In addition, GCL integration said that before the release of '5.31 New Deal', he had locked in the price of some orders in advance. When the market demand decreased, the raw material price of PV products fell rapidly, the company's gross profit improved.
Compared with component companies, the performance of downstream PV power plant operators is less affected by the '531' New Deal.
Solar energy (000591.SZ) is expected to achieve a net profit of 430 million to 470 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 9.41%-19.59% year-on-year. The company said that compared with the same period last year, the installed capacity of power station plates increased in the first half of this year. The power curtailment situation has improved, which has led to an increase in power generation and an increase in the profit of the power station sector.
Aikang Technology (002610.SZ) and Yishite (002623.SZ), which also achieved positive growth in net profit, also said that the total amount of photovoltaic power generation and revenue has increased, which is one of the reasons for the growth.
According to Aikang Technology, during the reporting period, due to the influence of policies, the company's holdings of photovoltaic power stations have generally improved their power-limiting conditions, and the power-limiting rate is far lower than the company's expectations. At the same time, the company's manufacturing industry is mainly for photovoltaic parts manufacturing, and the business direction Mainly export sales, not affected by the 'PV 531 New Deal', business income is higher than expected.
In response to the industry situation in the second half of the year, Wang Bohua is expected to be more severe. He pointed out that on the one hand, the sharp decline in the market forced the price of terminal products to decline rapidly; on the other hand, for polysilicon enterprises, the national security and environmental protection policies also affected the cost. Continued to rise, downstream demand for high-quality silicon materials is growing, for component companies, glass, aluminum frame and other raw materials prices are still rising.
