We believe that the lightweight of passenger cars is about to accelerate, including:
The current level of light weight does not meet the fuel consumption requirements. 'Double points' has been landed in April 2018, requiring the average fuel consumption of vehicles to be reduced to 5L/100km by 2020. Based on current levels, the average annual fuel consumption will need to reach 7.1%. In the past four years, the average annual fuel consumption has dropped by only 3.8%. According to the current progress, even considering the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles, the average fuel consumption can only be reduced to about 6L/100km by 2020, and the target of 5L/100km. There is still a very big gap.
Lightweight is an important way to alleviate the pain points of new energy vehicles. The national subsidy will gradually increase the requirements for cruising range. Lightweight will reduce weight and improve battery life, helping car companies to obtain government subsidies.
Lightweight can meet the market's higher requirements for vehicle handling and NVH. The key direction of lightweighting is the aluminum alloyization of chassis components: Why is aluminum alloy the most important lightweight material for automotive at this stage? Mature, wide application range, is the optimal solution for balancing light weight gains and costs; upstream supply is stable, supporting industries are perfect, aluminum alloy parts manufacturers have guaranteed bargaining power. w Why is the chassis the most important lightweight field at this stage? The fuel consumption and control gains brought by lightweighting are far more lightweight than other components of the same magnitude. The chassis is mainly of unsprung mass, and the effect of the same-range unsprung mass and light weight is 5-15 times that of the sprung mass, which is equivalent to The athlete removed the sandbags tied to his legs.
The steering of the chassis, the aluminum alloy in the suspension and braking system has a low permeability. The CAGR of the market capacity is expected to reach 20%, 35% and 60% respectively. The total capacity in 2025 will reach 41 billion yuan, combined with other applications. , aluminum alloy lightweight market capacity will reach 100 billion.
Investment strategy: We are most optimistic about the chassis aluminum alloy lightweight parts, related manufacturers are expected to usher in an outbreak; In addition, it is recommended to focus on the downstream demand to improve the aluminum alloy lightweight parts and equipment.
Risk warning: car sales in 2018 fell short of expectations; commodity prices rose sharply.
