The rise of electric vehicles, fuel engines, will disappear?

In the automobile market, in recent years, the rivers and lakes have changed, traditional automobile manufacturers have occupied the status of rivers and lakes for many years, and they have cultivated a unique school. There is no meaning to retreat from the rivers and lakes. With Tesla launching pure electric vehicles, rivers and lakes will be added. Change. With the use of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, pure electric and hydrogen-powered technologies, people feel that new energy is bound to be the core of the future, so some people think that traditional engines will be abandoned, for traditional engines. It’s 'Winter is coming.'

Text: First of all, the view that it will disappear is inevitably somewhat biased, and some foreign R&D centers believe that this era is not the beginning of the winter season.

Traditional engine continues to force

If you look at the traditional engine, you will find that in the near future, traditional manufacturers not only did not give up research and development, but also produced a lot of new engines. For example, Lectra, Mazda, General Motors and other companies have developed new technology for small displacement engines. Fuel efficiency is at least 20% higher than before. Even if it is a relatively irregular start and stop, the traditional engine also has the advantage of fuel consumption, and there will be greater potential.

Although we have seen that the Chinese government is encouraging the development of new energy sources such as PHEVs and EVs, and wants to rapidly increase the market share of Xingya vehicles through government subsidies, it is not difficult to see that the government’s active guidance has not Great role, and in the global market, if the subsidies are liberalized, the development of the global market is not just what consumers want.

Improve thermal efficiency and lightweight design

Looking at the entire automobile market, as well as the economics of using the car, the fuel consumption has increased by 8.0% in the past decade, indicating that the fuel is more effective, which also represents the progress of the engine and the reduction of exhaust emissions, and the discharge temperature. Lowering. Moreover, the technology developed by automobile manufacturers can greatly improve the fuel efficiency of the engine, and can also greatly reduce the temperature of the exhaust pipe and the engine cylinder wall. This means that the fuel efficiency of the engine after the technology update has been improved. The required kinetic energy needs.

In the traditional power, including the technology used by the respective manufacturers of GM, Lectra and Mazda, the high compression ratio has reached the same fuel efficiency as the light mix, and now the 3-cylinder-based engine is quietly rising. This is a good understanding. The reason why new energy vehicles can rise is largely due to severe environmental problems, so manufacturers will continue to research and develop small displacement engines.

In Europe, the engine development projects of major mainstream manufacturers are shrinking in large numbers, but this is not a recent incident but started 4 or 5 years ago. The reason is not because the engine is quickly being killed by electric vehicles.

Many OEMs have a mature range of engine products, from small displacement products ranging from 1.x to 2.0, to large displacement machines of 3.0 or above, and engines with the same displacement have also developed discriminative Different power training versions. So there is really no need for major changes in the short term.

The main engine factory research and development is also the input-output ratio, the engine itself has thermal efficiency limits, and the mature product output and input ratio is already very low. This is why the main engine plant's R&D investment in the powertrain is mostly placed in the gearbox. There is also a mixed direction, because the same R&D investment can see a significant improvement in fuel consumption, power and drivability in the short term.

Internal combustion engine technology still has great potential

The honorary chairman of the China Internal Combustion Engine Society, Academician Su Wanhua, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also said that the energy density is high. Now the power of the passenger car can reach 150Kw/L in the laboratory. The internal combustion engine has the highest thermal efficiency, and the gasoline engine can reach 45%. It is not the highest gasoline technology. It and the latest ultra-supercritical are power generation systems. The current two methods of thermal power generation are the most efficient. One is ultra-supercritical power generation, and the other is IGCC hotspot power generation. Its efficiency is equivalent. Up to 46%, the thermal efficiency of the diesel engine is close to 50%, which is very fast reached now.

Moreover, the internal combustion engine can use flexible fuel, and the technology is mature and the maintenance cost is low.

Small displacement turbo will be the main force

Now manufacturers' small displacement and light weight can be achieved, with small displacement, high performance and high efficiency. Therefore, the development of small displacement turbocharged engine will be the main force of the manufacturer, which further proves that the traditional automobile engine does not. It will decline or disappear due to the rise of new energy vehicles. BMW, GM, Peugeot have entered the army of three-cylinder engines, Peugeot replaced the previous 1.6L four-cylinder engine with a 1.2T three-cylinder engine, while BMW used 1.5T The three-cylinder engine replaced the previous 1.6T four-cylinder engine, while the GM replaced the previous 1.5-liter and 1.4-T four-cylinder engines with two 1.0- and 1.3-T three-cylinder engines on the 2018 New Yinglang.

On the power and NVH, the small displacement three-cylinder engine has been very superior. Although the current discussion is relatively large, according to the manufacturer's approach, it will be the main force of the follow-up.

to sum up:

New energy vehicles have the advantages and advantages of new energy vehicles, but the immature after-sales system and the technical bottleneck of the products themselves may not be mainstream. From the current results, the traditions of Lectra, General Motors, Ford, Volkswagen Dachang is updating its own small-displacement engine technology, and it is also constantly advancing its use. It is not difficult to see that the future development of traditional engines will be strong.

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