Since mid-July, the aggregate MDI market has stopped falling and rebounded. Taking the South China market as an example, the price has risen from 17,600 yuan to the current 19,300 yuan.
The industry analysts believe that the recent equipment maintenance is more, the manufacturers have a strong price willingness, so that the market will increase the kinetic energy. However, the current downstream demand is sluggish, the supply is expected to increase in the later period, coupled with trade friction to limit exports, the convergence of MDI is difficult to rise. continued.
Confidence frustrated price cuts
According to Li Hong, Marketing Manager of Shandong Zhonghai Chemical Group Co., Ltd., from the trend of aggregated MDI market over the years, July is a watershed. For example, in late June last year, the domestic aggregate MDI market began to rebound and rebound, echoing the market peak season of the third quarter. This year's market is quite entangled. From June to early July, prices have fallen all the way, compared with the same period last year, the price difference is as high as 6,800 yuan.
In addition, the July settlement price cuts also hit the confidence of the industry to some extent.
Judging from the settlement price in July, Wanhua Aggregate MDI has a listing price of RMB 21,500 for dealers, down by RMB 1,000 from last month; the listing price of direct selling market is RMB 21,500, down by RMB 2,000 from last month. Shanghai BASF Aggregate MDI Listing Price 2.2 Ten thousand yuan, down 1,000 yuan from last month. Huntsman's aggregate MDI listing price of 21,300 yuan, down 1,000 yuan from last month.
'As the end of the month approaches, the Yantai Wanhua maintenance unit will be restarted soon. It is expected that the MDI operating rate will increase in the later stage, increasing the risk of market decline.' Li Hong said.
Downstream demand is difficult to quantify
The biggest negative in the aggregate MDI market comes from demand.
According to Li Hong, June is the traditional off-season of the aggregate MDI market. The northern wheat harvest and the southern plum rain season have reduced the demand for raw materials downstream. In addition, the environmental inspector 'look back' plus the recent new property market, driving insulation infrastructure and plates The operating rate of the factory is generally low, and the overall demand for the aggregated MDI is difficult to increase.
'MDI is an important raw material for polyurethane, a green energy-saving building material. It has close ties with the real estate industry. In July, Yunnan, Henan and other places have introduced new measures for real estate regulation; the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department and other seven departments have implemented real estate management in 30 cities across the country. The market chaos is a special action. With the introduction of real estate regulation and control policies, the demand for building materials will inevitably be affected, and the late MIG market will be aggregated. 'Li Hong said.
Trade friction limit export
Sino-US trade friction will also bring certain negative effects on the aggregate MDI market.
According to industry analysts, the US has a large amount of MDI. The gap was mainly dependent on Chinese imports. However, with the escalation of Sino-US trade friction, domestic MDI exports will be affected.
In addition, Sino-US trade friction also involves the downstream refrigerator industry that aggregates MDI. With the increase of tariffs, the export of refrigerators will also be limited, which will affect the demand for raw material MDI. The data shows that the number of refrigerators exported to the United States in 2017 accounted for the total exports. 19% of the amount.
In addition, China's automobile and car seats, hoses and other products will be restricted to the United States, reducing the demand for MDI.
In summary, the recent convergence of the MDI market has ushered in a small wave of rising prices, but the rise is not strong. On the one hand, the operating rate is expected to increase, on the other hand, the environmental protection policy, the property market regulation affects downstream demand. Plus Sino-US trade Friction, it is difficult to maintain optimism in the short-term market. However, under the promotion of the 'Golden September and Silver 10' traditional peak season, the aggregate MDI market in September may usher in the high point of the year.