On July 23, 2018, the State Council executive meeting proposed to deploy and better play the role of fiscal and financial policies, support the expansion of domestic demand structure to promote the development of the real economy; determine the measures to supplement the shortcomings, increase the stamina, and benefit the people's livelihood to promote effective investment. Three points: First, the active fiscal policy should be more active, second, the sound monetary policy should be tight and moderate, and the third is to speed up the funding of the National Financing Guarantee Fund.
At this meeting, the state gave market confidence in macroeconomic policies, demanded that fiscal policy be more active, and monetary policy should be more moderate. Founder Securities believes that confidence is more important than gold. Under the positive policy trend, macroeconomic pessimistic expectations It is expected to be repaired, and the construction machinery industry will take the wind. Engineering machinery leading enterprises, on the basis of updating demand in the next three years, with the increase of penetration rate, the proportion of exports continues to increase, the industry pattern is optimized, leading enterprises report The repair elasticity is large and it is expected to exceed the cycle.
In the first half of the year, under the influence of unfavorable factors such as deleveraging, shrinking social scale and tight liquidity, the market's concerns about the sustainability of the construction machinery industry have intensified. Therefore, Founder Securities believes that although the sales volume of excavators exceeds expectations every month, However, the stock prices of the leading companies are still not warm. Actually, this indicates that pessimistic expectations have been reflected in the stock price in the first half of the year. The deployment of this meeting not only proposes a more active fiscal policy, but also a moderate monetary policy, and emphasizes maintaining macroeconomics. The policy is stable, insisting on not engaging in the 'big flood irrigation' type of strong stimulus, promoting the progress of the use of infrastructure projects under construction, and at the same time effectively ensuring the funding needs of projects under construction. Driven by the policy, the construction project will start in the second half of the year. It is expected to accelerate, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to return to normal in the second half of the year, the market pessimism is expected to be further repaired, and the sustainability of construction machinery will be extended.
