As of July 24, the total domestic PVC production capacity was 22.74 million tons, of which the calcium carbide process capacity was 18.72 million tons, accounting for 82.3%; the ethylene process capacity was 4.02 million tons, accounting for 17.7%. Under the market structure supplemented by ethylene, the domestic calcium carbide material is more affected by the trend of ethylene materials, and the two trends are basically the same.
In the first half of 2018, there was no new capacity in the ethylene feedstock market, and the downstream demand was relatively stable. The overall supply and demand pattern continued to be in a balanced state. The price difference between ethylene and calcium carbide materials was basically maintained within a reasonable range. In the short term, there is no new equipment for vinyl materials. Part of it is planned to go into production in 2019.
The operating rate in the first half of the year was relatively high, and the fluctuations were frequent.
There are not many ethylene companies in China, most of which are produced by imported ethylene or VCM. The price trend of ethylene materials is obviously affected by electric stone materials, and the linkage with upstream raw materials is weak. The ethylene industry started to maintain a high level in the first half of the year. Between 6-9 percent, the average operating rate is 77.07%. However, due to the unstable production of individual ethylene companies, the start-up trend is also more frequent.
Ethylene law profit in the first half of the year is more impressive
In the first half of the year, the overall profit of ethylene-based PVC was considerable, with an average profit of 660 yuan/ton. In the same period last year, the overall profitability of ethylene materials was not good, and most of the time was at a loss. The profitability of ethylene materials this year was mainly the first half of the year. The price is in a high level of volatility, while the raw material arrival price is relatively low, so the profit remains high. In the case of more objective ethylene revenue, the ethylene plant is actively pre-sale, and some East China ethylene plant is basically in the middle. Source of the previous month before the sale of the base
Regarding the trend of the PVC market in the later stage, it is still consistent with the calcium carbide material in the long run. However, in the short term, the ethylene PVC market will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the individual ethylene system will be unplanned for parking, and the market supply will be relatively reduced. Other ethylene methods The factory price test is up, and the current inventory is tight, indicating that the market demand is general, but just under the support, there is no pressure on the ethylene plant. If the relevant parking companies resume driving, the basic orders will be returned first, and the short-term market supply pressure. Not big, it is expected that even if the price goes down, the space is not big.