On July 24th, the medical network was affected by the negative news of the vaccine industry. Today, the A-share market opened and the vaccine sector plummeted. Changchun High-tech (000661, SZ), Zhifei Bio (300122, SZ), Kangtai Bio (300601, SZ) ), Watson Bio (300142, SZ) four stocks fell.
As of 9:40 am, the preliminary draft of the bio-vacuum sector 51 stocks (excluding the three that have been suspended), the market value of the opening has evaporated more than 37 billion yuan.
However, after the five-day limit, the long-lived creature (002680, SZ), who was in the midst of the storm of public opinion, issued an urgent announcement today to suspend the trading, thus temporarily 'hiding a catastrophe'. If it does not suspend trading, the figure of 37 billion yuan Will inevitably become bigger.
A number of pharmaceutical stocks in the forefront of the decline on the morning of the 23rd
Slightly embarrassing, the food safety concept stocks strengthened against the market in early trading, and Tianrui Instrument (300165, SZ) was a straight limit.
China Ping An's research report believes that the negative news from the vaccine industry on the weekend will have a big impact on the biomedical industry. From the morning's disk, the biomedical sector has few red stocks.
Vaccine black swan causes public anxiety
Public opinion requires a check
On the afternoon of July 15, the Daily Economic News (WeChat: nbdnews) exclusively reported the emergency notification issued by Changsheng Bio, asking the provincial promotion team to immediately notify the district CDC and the vaccination unit within the jurisdiction, and immediately stop using the company. Rabies vaccine, immediately sealed the company's rabies vaccine news.
Subsequently, the state drug Through the flight inspection, the Supervisory Authority found that Changchun Changsheng Bio-freeze rabies vaccine production has serious violations of the "Good Manufacturing Practices", such as record fraud, and ordered Changchun Changsheng to stop producing rabies vaccine. At the same time, the regulatory authorities recovered longevity organisms. Subsidiary Changchun Changsheng related "Drug GMP Certificate". Changsheng Bio also released information that all batches of rabies vaccine recalls during the validity period.
As a result, the vaccine black swan caused by the longevity organism officially broke out.
Long-lived organisms announced on the evening of July 19 that the 250,000-year-old 'adsorbed cell-free white combined vaccine' (not known as 'baibai broken') test of Changsheng Biology in 2017 did not meet the regulations, and almost all of the 250,000 vaccines were sold. In Shandong, there were only 186 inventories. Subsequently, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange sent a letter to express concern about the suspension of production of the Changsheng Biological Baibai Breaking Workshop, disclosure of untimely information, and asked the latter to make a statement. This announcement triggered public opinion behind the longevity. How many secrets are still hidden, and what are the vaccines so far? It is a question of sporadic cases or industry problems.
With the deepening of the event, a self-published article entitled "King of Vaccines" has brought the focus of public opinion from the single vaccine event of the longevity organism to the anxiety of the whole vaccine industry. In addition to the longevity, the article also involves Kangtai Bio, Changchun. High-tech and other pharmaceutical companies.
On the evening of July 21st, the Daily Economic News (micro-signal: nbdnews) released the article "The King of Vaccines Hot Friends Circle, Leading the History of Secrets of the Rich and the Rich", further revealing the capital of the "King of Vaccines" Du Weimin On the evening of July 21, according to the Securities Times, Kangtai Biological Secretary secretly stated that the company has no business relationship with Changsheng Biological.
On the evening of July 22, Premier Li Keqiang gave instructions on the vaccine incident. The vaccine incident broke through the moral bottom line of the people and must be clearly explained to the people of the country. On the evening of the same day, the People’s Daily issued a statement saying that the incident needs to be checked to the end. Relieve vaccine anxiety.
On July 23, Xinhua News Agency issued a document to approve the vaccine company's serious violations, saying that it would increase penalties and let the offenders go bankrupt.
The brokers’ emergency meeting on the weekend was painfully approved.
Fund 23.5 billion yuan heavy warehouse vaccine stocks
With the fermentation of public opinion, the denunciation of a single problem vaccine has evolved into a question about the safety of the entire vaccine industry. The vaccine black swan caused by longevity organisms inevitably has a major impact on the capital market.
Since July 16, Changsheng Biotech has fallen for five consecutive trading days, and its market value has evaporated by nearly 10 billion. There are brokers, and the fund has lowered the rating for Changsheng.
Chuan Cai Securities released a research report on July 19th, based on the principle of prudence, downgrading Changsheng Bio-rating to 'Reduce'. According to the Securities Times, as of July 18, seven fund companies have lowered the valuation of longevity organisms. Boss, E Fund and Jiutai Fund lowered their valuation to 14.5 yuan, the reduction is equivalent to 5 down limit; Investment , Guangfa, TEDA Manulife, China Merchants and Anxin Fund adjusted the valuation of Changsheng Biotechnology to 16.11 yuan, which is equivalent to 4 down limits.
According to Sina Finance, as the vaccine event is further fermented, brokers medicine The analysis team is also unable to remain silent. Southwest Securities, the Pacific medical team are planning to hold a conference call on Sunday.
Among them, the conference call of Southwest Securities was based on the theme of 'right viewing'. According to Sina Finance News, the conference call was supported by Southwest Securities analyst Chen Tielin, who expressed confidence in the domestic vaccine industry.
But not all analysts agree with Southwest Securities' 'conference to the right'. The communications industry analyst Xu Li issued a message on his WeChat public account, asking the vaccine analyst to shut up.
Subsequently, on the afternoon of July 22, Pacific Securities issued an apology for the morning conference call, apologizing for the misunderstanding and troubles. The Southwest Securities Medical Team also said that due to the temporary travel of experts, temporarily cancel the teleconference on the evening.
According to Sina Finance, Yu Yang, a fund manager of the Wells Fargo Fund, which has been heavily involved in biopharmaceutical stocks such as Kangtai Bio, is a domestic vaccine platform. Yu Yang said that the incident is speechless, and few people in the Internet age can think independently. Yu Yang said that More confidence in domestic vaccines. But at present, this friend circle information for the vaccine platform has been deleted.
Behind the fund manager Yu Yang is the vaccine platform. It is the fund that has a large number of funds holding a vaccine listed company and many analysts on the longevity of the 'stepping thunder'.
According to Wind's second-quarter data released by the fund, as of July 20, 785 fund products hold 36 biological vaccine concept stocks, holding a market value of 23.5 billion yuan. The fund holding ratio is over 1% of the stocks. 17 of them, the two with the highest ratio of fund holdings are Kangtai Bio, Changchun High-tech, which accounted for 24% and 21% respectively.
According to Wind data, among the funds that have disclosed the second quarterly report, a total of 33 fund companies hold Kangtai Bio, of which 16 products from the Wells Fargo Fund, and 8 products of the China Europe Fund account for 10.22% and 6.57% respectively.
Among the funds that have disclosed the second quarterly report, a total of 66 fund companies hold Changchun Gaoxin, of which 12 products of Harvest Fund and 9 products of Cathay Fund hold 2.54% of the shares outstanding, 2.06%.
Every time I have noticed that according to the announcement of the second quarterly report of the fund, at least two funds have newly entered the warehouse.
According to Wind data, as of the end of the first quarter, there were 11 funds owned by 9 companies holding longevity creatures. Among them, the most held shares were selected by Fuguo Tianrui. The fund holds 8.62 million shares of Changsheng Biological, accounting for Net worth ratio of 4.38%, ranked fifth in the fund's top ten holdings.
Considering that the fund's second quarter report has been disclosed, it also means that the funds holding longevity creatures in the first quarter have all fled successfully.
According to the Economic Observer Online, this year, Founder Securities analyst Zhou Xiaogang has repeatedly given a strong recommendation rating to Changsheng Bio. In addition, Zhongtai Securities analyst Jiang Qi, Northeast Securities Cui Jieming gave a buy rating. Zhou Xiaogang was at In May, the research report raised the target price of longevity organisms to 31 yuan, and said that the rabies vaccine is expected to increase by 15%-25% in 2018. The net profit this year is expected to reach 1 billion yuan. 'The price/performance ratio is still outstanding. highly recommended! ' .
Black swan hit
1.77 million shareholders sleepless night
Since the longevity biological vaccine fraud was exposed, as of July 20, its market value evaporated nearly 10 billion, 20,000 shareholders in the vaccine black swan is miserable.
According to Wind data, there are 54 A-share listed companies involved in biological vaccines. In addition to the suspension of Shanghai Lai Shi, the number of shareholders is 1.75 million.
54 bio-vaccine concept stocks, a total of 16 stocks rose more than 10% this year, of which Kangtai Biological's increase of more than 100% this year, ranked first in the concept stocks.
In terms of profitability, only 54 of the 54 biological vaccine concept stocks health Yuan, Tiantan Biology's net profit in 2017 exceeded 1 billion yuan, of which 17 net profit exceeded 300 million. However, from the perspective of gross profit margin, 35 bio-vacuum listed companies' sales margin in 2017 exceeded 50%, accounting for Over sixty percent.
But from medicine enterprise According to important R&D indicators, the number of R&D expenditures in the bio-vaccine concept stocks accounted for more than 10% of the revenue in 2017. In addition to Watson, the other nine R&D expenditures accounted for no more than 20% of revenue. %.
