In two days, Shandong's propylene price rose by 250 yuan / ton to 8550-8600 yuan / ton, only rose about 220 yuan on Monday, the increase was announced, the market people are the same as the fried pot, are in Ask a question: 'Is propylene crazy, how has it risen so much?'
For this week's market, we expect a rise, but we don't expect this increase. The rise of more than 200 a day is really exaggerated for the recent market. Maybe the supply is tight, and the producers have a push, but it also reflects The atmosphere of the market, the psychology of downstream rushing goods, whether the rise of propylene is a speculative atmosphere? Is there any support for this price?
Judging from the current profit of downstream enterprises, the price difference of PP pellets is 200 yuan. It is reasonable to say that powder shipments should be guaranteed, but in summer, the demand for powders is low, and the trading volume is weak. In addition, the price of propylene climbs to 8600. High position, suffering from cost pressure, powder enterprises actively follow the rise of propylene, but the price has risen to the threshold of 9,000 yuan, the terminal just needs to buy to start to resist, the purchase is not positive, the attitude tends to be cautious, the wait-and-see mood warms up, the powder is shipped in general. Normal Under the price difference between polypropylene and propylene is 400-600 yuan / ton, now the ex-factory price of Shandong propylene is 8550-8600 yuan / ton, the price of powder material is 8980-9000 yuan / ton, the price difference is 400 yuan, that is to say, the powder is in profit. Sticking to the cost line (propylene production) or upside down 100-200, some powder enterprises in Shandong began to plan to reduce production, parking, propylene demand may decline.
Propylene oxide, Shandong price is 11,800 yuan / ton, raw material propylene 8550-8600 yuan / ton, chlorohydrin method propylene oxide cost is about 9,000 yuan / ton, profit is around 2700 yuan / ton (liquid chlorine inverted 500-700 yuan / ton, counting liquid chlorine, propylene oxide profit is more than 3,200 yuan / ton), propylene oxide profit is considerable, so the raw material propylene price increase is also relatively strong, but Huatai 14 parking, Jinling a workshop will park 10 Days, the second workshop will be parked for 11 days, when the demand for propylene will be reduced by 700 tons / day.
Butyl octanol, PDH enterprises in North China are affected by environmental inspections, propylene loading is limited, and the supply of downstream customers is reduced or suspended for a short period of time. In order to maintain the normal production of its own equipment, the downstream of butyl octanol has increased the purchase of propylene in Shandong. Originally, Shandong propylene itself has been extensively refurbished and repaired. The supply volume has been reduced by about 2,000 tons. With the promotion of new acrylonitrile plants, the price of propylene has risen sharply. The profit of butanol has also occurred. The change, up to now, the price of butanol is 8,000 yuan / ton, the price of octanol is 9100 yuan / ton, its profit is about 800 yuan / ton, so the resistance to propylene is also possible.
Northeast, Shandong, East China propylene supply is slightly tight, production enterprises have low inventory, although the current propylene market risk is small, the mentality is still acceptable, it is expected that short-term propylene does not rule out the room for increase, but the range may be narrowed, after all, Consider the downstream polypropylene, part of the PO equipment overhaul and the outbound cargo arrivals. If the profit is exhausted, the bad news begins to heat up, cautious propylene high risk of falling back.