For color TV practitioners, how many times are looking forward to the difficult 2016, the color TV market has rushed in the past, and the market has turned around. However, it is counterproductive. In 2018, there is no new concept, no spoiler, no 'mutual tearing' phenomenon, only Solid and naked price wars, and the market downturn that is difficult to pull even price wars!
After experiencing the 'quantity increase and fall' in 2016, the 'quantity decline and increase' in 2017, what will be the color TV market in 2018?
A true 2018 color TV market: continued toughness
Peng Xiandong, general manager of Zhongyikang Consumer Electronics Division, described the Chinese color TV market in the first half of 2018 as 'online to the left, offline to the right, but on the power line, it is difficult to hide the market's trend.' According to Zhong Yikang's statistics, In the first half of 2018, China's color TV market was 22.66 million units, up 0.7% year-on-year, and retail sales were 71.1 billion yuan, down 5.9% year-on-year.
The market is bleak, the only bright spot on the line. In the first half of 2018, most companies believe that e-commerce has bid farewell to the era of traffic dividends, entering the period of growth fatigue, on the contrary, offline channels will be promoted with the upgrade of consumption, the market will improve. However, the fact is just the opposite. The offline market, which has been highly hoped by the traditional color TV brands, has experienced a significant decline, while the online market still maintains high growth. According to the analysis of Zhongyikang, in the first half of 2018, the sales volume under the color line decreased. 16.5%, sales decreased by 13.3%; but online sales increased by 40.4%, and sales increased by more than 20%.
At the beginning of this year, Zhongyikang predicted that the retail volume of color TV market in 2018 would be 49.6 million units, up 2.6% year-on-year, and the retail sales would be 163.4 billion yuan, up 0.43% year-on-year. The data of the other two market organizations, Ovi Cloud and GfK, are -- Aowei Cloud Network: The retail sales of color TV market will reach 48.88 million units in 2018, up 3.1% year-on-year. The retail sales will reach 159.7 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year; GfK: flat-panel TV retail market forecast data, 2018 The size of China's TV market is expected to reach 45.75 million units, up 3% year-on-year.
From this point of view, based on the sales situation in the first half of the year, the annual retail volume of 2018 should maintain even a 2-3% increase, and the retail sales will not decline. This goal is difficult to achieve unless there is a big turn in the market in the second half of the year. From now on, this kind of depression in China's color TV market is difficult to change, and it is estimated that it will continue until 2019 and even 2020. Peng said.
Strange phenomenon worthy of reflection: the more difficult it is to reduce the price, the more difficult it is to innovate
Seriously explore these fascinating data, analyze the market phenomenon behind it, the state of operation and the mentality of practitioners, and some phenomena that make people scratch their heads surface.
Strange phenomenon 1: The lower the unit price of the product, the less the color TV is bought?
First of all, it needs to be explained that the more the price of color TV products is lowered, the less people buy them. It is not that the sales of a certain product is worse than the price reduction, but it means that the whole color TV products are getting cheaper and cheaper. Inch ultra-high-definition TVs are even priced at half the price of a brand's 6-inch mobile phone. However, the latter's consumers are rushing to sell, and the sales of color TVs are still getting less and less – they can't sell.
Consumers' distance from TV products is the biggest 'enemy' in the color TV industry. At present, it seems that 'price reduction' may not be able to 'catch' users, and even boost consumers' distance from TV.
'2000 yuan can buy a 50-inch TV, you can buy at any time. Anyway, TV is not very good now, let's talk about it! 'The young man without a TV said to himself. 'OLED TV is good, it is too expensive, More than 20,000, wait! The 50-inch TV has dropped from 10,000 yuan in the year to 2000 now, and OLED TV will definitely drop! 'The middle class who intends to change TV is so 'rational' to analyze.
It’s all about the price cuts, the more you sell, the more you sell, the lower the price, the sale of a stock TV, and the sale of your own future.
Strange phenomenon 2: The price of the panel drops and then falls, what is the spring of the good color TV industry?
There is an unwritten rule in the color TV market: As long as the panel makers make money, the whole machine manufacturers will not make money; as long as the panel makers make big money, the whole machine manufacturers will have to lose money. Last year, the panel makers were profitable, and the profit of the color TV manufacturers was suppressed below 1%. In the second half of last year, the panel price cut began. However, what is the spring of the color TV industry? Where is the spring? Seeing from the third quarter of this year, panel prices are picking up again. Where will the color TV market go?
There are many players in China's color TV market, and many companies are still very extensive in operation. Panel prices have risen, manufacturers have received a little more, do some careful internal management, and reduce operating expense ratio. The upstream panel has cut prices, the cost has decreased, and the profit margin has increased. There are always business people who have the opportunity to go up and do it. 'In any case, pull the share up and say it.' So, the price cut is the easiest way to gain market share. So, the price war in the first half of this year, from New Year's Day to the Spring Festival. From '3·15' to 'May 1' to '6·18', the average price of TVs at each sales node decreased in turn... But in fact, for most companies involved, even if the price is cut, there is not much market share.
Whether it is 55 inches or 65 inches, there is not much room for bargaining at present. When the drop is impossible, the original market share may be difficult to keep, and the time for market shuffling is coming.
Strange phenomenon 3: Shouting for many years of shuffling, how are those old faces?
When it comes to shuffling, there is a strange phenomenon: China's color TV market 'shuffle' has been said for more than ten years, but for so many years, foreign brands have been ups and downs, and Chinese color TV brands are standing still. Although there are LeTV, Xiaomi and other companies. The spoiler has produced a lot of influence, but in the end, the six major companies representing China's color TV brands - Hisense, Skyworth, TCL, Changhong, Konka, Haier still stand still, with the largest market share of no more than 18%. The market share is small, also 8-9%, no giants rise, no companies out, the market structure 'stable' is somewhat strange.
Behind this strange phenomenon, there are several possible reasons. First, the statistical data may be wrong. Enterprises maintain their survival through different ways, the market statistics data may have a certain amount of water, resulting in little fluctuation of the share. The market competition mechanism, especially the market mechanism with capital as the main traction, has not really formed. Third, these enterprises are indeed 'strong enough' and have sufficient capacity to undertake loss-making business.
Mature industries under the market economy, generally only 2-3 strong brands, the so-called 'boss eating meat, the second child drinking soup, the old three bones', the Chinese market is bigger, at most can accommodate a small four, the market leader accounted for About 30% share, several giants account for more than 80% share, the rest of the world is divided by miscellaneous brands. China's white electricity industry has a relatively comfortable life, there is such a duopoly, the three oligarchs of the competitive landscape, the enterprise has control over the market Force, only the color TV industry, into an endless new, price cuts, declines, and even losses.
After editing:
Hey, China's color TV industry produces a lot of strange phenomenon, the above three are awesome classics! China's color TV industry has experienced strange phenomena for a long time, it is not strange to the above phenomena?!
It is true that existence is reasonable and reasonable: "What is it?" But to make the industry out of the haze, face up to the above phenomenon, the reason behind the rational analysis is very necessary. To eliminate the above strange phenomenon, I am afraid that only Can be handed over to the market, let the market play a leading role in the allocation of enterprise resources. Full market competition, market competition in adversity, is conducive to the real survival of the fittest. An expert laments to the author: The market environment is good, the bad money survives. Space, on the contrary, will eliminate good money. From this perspective, then we have to appeal: Let the storm come even harder!