With the arrival of July, the first half of 2018 has ended. In the first half of the year, there have been some events that have had a major impact on the plastics industry. For example, China’s ban on the import of waste plastics, the environmental tax, and the trade war between China and the United States are all right. China's plastic raw materials market has caused a certain impact. Based on this, Xiaobian compiled the production and sales of various raw materials in China's plastic raw materials market in the first half of this year for reference.
PS (polystyrene plastic)
In the first half of 2018, the supply of low-end materials in domestic PS enterprises increased, which dragged down the profitability of PS enterprises to a certain extent. Benefiting from the restart of CITIC Guoan installation in March this year, the domestic PS enterprises started production and production increased to some extent. In the first half of the year, the average starting capacity of domestic PS devices was around 78%, which was higher than 70% in the same period of last year. The cumulative production of domestic PS in the first half of the year was 1,298,600 tons, which was higher than the 1,167,800 tons in the same period of last year.
However, due to the increase in the supply of low-end materials, the market competition pressure is aggravated, coupled with the plunging and plunging of styrene, it is difficult for PS companies to pass on cost pressures. In the external environment, the export of downstream products is blocked, and the pressure on manufacturers is increasing. Leading to the decline in the theoretical profitability of domestic PS companies in the first half of 2018.
phenol
Although the phenol market in the first half of this year has been greatly improved compared with the first half of last year, the domestic phenol market has experienced ups and downs in the first half of this year.
From January to March of this year, as the price of phenol continued to rise at the beginning of the year, the cost of downstream phenol plants was passed on to the terminal, and was affected by the late start of the factory in the downstream of the Spring Festival holiday. The phenol stocks continued to accumulate, and the supply and demand fundamentals were weak. Negotiations have gradually declined. As some downstream factories have closed their positions on the dips, and the overall profit margin of petrochemical enterprises has narrowed from the previous period, the price stability is firm. From the Spring Festival to mid-March, the market is mostly in the stage of low-cost consumption of inventory. 3 to 4 Month, the start of the downstream factory after the Spring Festival and the anti-dumping investigation on imported phenol originating in the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Japan and Thailand, which made the supply of domestic phenol market tighter and the demand improved, all of which became a fast-moving support for the phenol market. The positive factors in the phenol market are rapidly rising. From May to June, the pressure on domestic environmental protection inspectors has increased, and during the Shanghe Summit in Qingdao, some of the downstream phenol plants around Shandong have started to decline. Negative or parking conditions, the domestic phenol market demand is relatively weak, but the domestic phenolic ketone plant routine maintenance over the years has ended, the overall start of the negative
In view of the fluctuations in the phenol market in the first half of this year, experts predict that the fundamentals of phenol supply and demand will be weak in the second half of the year, and the market still has a certain low space. However, considering that the current price is relatively low during the year, the overall profit margin of the phenol-ketone plant is declining, and the market price is low. After the shock, there will be a certain rebound opportunity.
Hexamethylenediamine
Since the beginning of this year, the market for hexamethylene diamine has started to soar. The monthly increase is around 1,000 yuan (ton price, the same below). The price has risen from 27,700 yuan at the beginning of the year to 68,500 yuan at the end of June, with a gain of 147.3%. In the first place.
The tight supply is an important reason for the price increase of hexamethylenediamine. The market concentration of hexamethylene diamine is relatively high, and several international giants dominate the market. Since this year, Aoshengde, INVISTA and BASF have suffered force majeure. As a result, the market supply is extremely tight and the price is rising. Recently, due to electrical accidents, the BASF hexamethylene diamine plant has stopped all production, or will increase the shortage of hexamethylene diamine supply.
In the first half of the year, the domestic industrial naphthalene market showed a turbulent upward trend, with an average increase of about 40% from January to June. Experts said that there are three main reasons for the increase in industrial naphthalene prices: First, the environmental high pressure situation has caused coal tar resources to be tight, resulting in The growth of industrial naphthalene production is slow, which directly promotes the overall market. Second, compared with the same period of last year, the operating rates of downstream phthalic anhydride, water reducer, dyes and other industries have improved significantly in the first half of this year, and the demand for industrial naphthalene has shown a recovery growth; In the first half of the year, the industrial naphthalene market created favorable conditions for the profitability of traders. Many traders who had previously suspended operations rejoined the speculation team.
In addition, some incidental factors also contributed to the trend of industrial naphthalene market in the first half of the year. For example, the pace of relocation of chemical companies into the park accelerated, and some small coal tar deep processing enterprises withdrew from the market. Sino-US trade friction also promoted the market volatility effect.
Styrene
In January-February 2018, upstream benzene was drastically reduced by external disk prices, domestic stocks were high, and the overall market talks fell sharply. In addition, another raw material ethylene gradually weakened, and the styrene cost line was always low. The ethylene market was affected by anti-dumping investigations. The overall trend remained strong. The factory's profitability improved. It reached 1700 yuan/ton. However, in early March, the East China styrene market entered a weak recovery period, and the styrene industry's profitability also shrank. .
However, from the end of March, the styrene market in East China began to fluctuate higher, while the upstream raw materials remained at a low level, and the profit of styrene plants began to rise. Among them, from the end of May to the beginning of June, the styrene boom in the East China The profit level of the factory once reached 4,800 yuan / ton, creating a new high in domestic factory profits.
TDI (toluene diisocyanate)
In the first half of the year, the TDI market experienced two rises and two declines, but the increase was far less than the decline. Overall, the price dropped from 40,000 yuan to 26,500 yuan, and the cumulative decline exceeded 13,000 yuan. After the Spring Festival, the demand surface started to fall short of expectations, the basic support Weakness. In addition, Japan and South Korea and the United States have more cargo arrivals in March, and the cost advantage has obvious impact on the market, which has intensified the price competition of various brands. TDI factory shipments are blocked, inventory pressure appears, and the price is actively lowered, driving the market to accelerate. The environmental inspector 'look back' in various places, plus the rainy season in the southern region in June and July and the northern wheat harvest, the downstream sponge factory is mostly in a semi-open state, the market demand for TDI is seriously insufficient, leading to a bearish mood heating up again.
Conclusion
In summary, the price of some products in the plastic raw material market has experienced a certain degree of fluctuation in the first half of the year. Relevant experts said that in the second half of the year, due to various domestic and international factors, the prices of various raw materials may still fluctuate or even decline. Taking the phenol market as an example, domestic demand tends to be stable, while India's Deepak Phenolics company's new phenolic ketone plant in Dahej Gujarat has been put into production, and the supply of goods to India in the later period will be reduced, and the profit margin of related companies will continue to decline. .