This year, the reversal of the expected expectation in the agricultural machinery market has not come. After the end of the 'Golden Decade', the growth rate of the agricultural machinery industry has slowed down, especially in the traditional industry support field, the tractor and harvester industry has declined significantly. In the market saturation, subsidy policy pulls In the case of weakening of functions and the gradual utility of traditional business methods, it is crucial to find new explosions in the industry.
Recently, the 2018 China Agricultural Machinery High-end Forum was held in Beijing. More than 200 people from all over the country participated in this forum. This forum takes the theme of 'new era of agricultural machinery' as the theme, explores the '13th Five-Year Plan, supply-side reform, emission upgrade Under the new environment of market downturn, how should the agricultural machinery industry break down and achieve further development.
Low market or normal
Some insiders have comprehensively analyzed the new situation and new problems in the development of China's agricultural machinery. It is believed that in the long period of time, unless there is a special stimulus growth factor, the development of the agricultural machinery market will be a high probability event.
First, from the analysis of the mainstream products that have the greatest impact on the growth of the agricultural machinery market, there is a lack of demand to support the expansion of the market. Since the implementation of the agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy in 2004, the agricultural machinery market has entered a period of rapid expansion. From the perspective of stocks, after more than a decade Growth, tractors, combine harvesters and other mainstream products are hugely equipped to meet production needs, and will enter a market dominated by product upgrades and technology upgrades in the future. The market for mainstream agricultural products tends to be saturated, and the possibility of continued expansion is limited. .
From an incremental point of view, the market size of the mainstream agricultural machinery products in the future will basically depend on the size of the update volume. However, due to the promotion of moderate scale operation, some small farmers will withdraw from agricultural production, and the actual update volume will be less than the theoretical projection value. From the farmer's investment in tractors, the value analysis of combine harvesters, the increase in the quantity of possession, the possibility of cross-regional operations is getting smaller and smaller. According to the analysis of the agricultural machinery and the amount of agricultural machinery owned by the National Agricultural Mechanization Annual Report, the average in 2016 The tractor has completed 78.34 mu of machine-planting and 56.91 mu of machine-planting. Each rice-wheat combine harvester actually harvests 238 mu of wheat, 276 mu of rice, and 776 mu of each corn combine harvester. The investment value is not large.
The niche agricultural products outside the mainstream products can not afford the heavy burden of industry growth. As China enters a comprehensive, full-scale agricultural mechanization promotion stage, in addition to the traditional three major food crops, potatoes, cotton, rapeseed, peanuts, soybeans The mechanization of sugar cane and pasture production, and even the mechanization of the production of onion, ginger and garlic that the company once dismissed is also on the agenda. There will be great development in the coming period, and it may form a partial market prosperity, creating a hot future. Small industry, but its impact on the growth of the entire agricultural machinery industry is limited, and can not afford the 'heavy duty' to support the growth of the entire industry. A large variety of limited agricultural machinery products, although the unit profit is higher, it is difficult to achieve mass production. It is only an important factor in the agricultural machinery market. Niche agricultural machinery products can create a prosperous market segment, but it is only a fluctuation factor of the agricultural machinery industry. The rapid growth of several niche products may not be able to offset the slight decline of mainstream products. .
Therefore, although China is currently in a comprehensive, full-scale agricultural mechanization promotion stage, many areas have obvious development needs, some areas still need to fill the gap, and the development potential is great, but the stock of mainstream agricultural machinery products determines the long-term period of the agricultural machinery market in the future. Inside, it will be in a downturn.
Forced industry innovation and upgrade
At the forum, three Chinese and foreign corporate executives discussed how the company should break through in a bad market environment.
Alistair McLelland, vice president and global managing director of Aike, believes that the population is growing, the land is decreasing and people's demand for food is increasing. This will make technology a driving force for the development of agricultural machinery. Lin Qionghua, general manager of Beijing) Co., Ltd. said that the free competition in the market economy will help the agricultural machinery industry to jump out of the dilemma and enter the benign hair. Zhu Weijiang, deputy general manager of First Tractor Co., Ltd. believes that the need for the industry to cross the border, innovation Transformation.
At present, the agricultural machinery industry market is bleak. Industry experts believe that the agricultural machinery industry has shifted from high-speed development to deepening structural adjustment, optimizing the new normal of industrial upgrading, user demand, and competitive factors are undergoing profound changes.
Transformation and innovation are the survival path of agricultural machinery enterprises in the future. The downturn in the agricultural machinery market means that the era of large-scale growth of agricultural machinery sales has become history, market competition will become more intense, and it is more difficult for agricultural machinery enterprises to make money, and truly test the moment of agricultural machinery entrepreneurs. Objectively, it will also force the industrial industry to upgrade, improve the innovation ability and product quality, better meet the various needs of agricultural production, and promote the healthy development of the industry. Since the implementation of the agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy, the country has characterized by scale research. The situation of products made around subsidy policies will be improved.
The sluggish agricultural machinery market forced mainstream agricultural machinery products to accelerate industry integration and industrial upgrading. The mainstream agricultural machinery product market has become a renewed market. Although the imbalance of China's economic development determines the diversity of agricultural machinery product demand, it has the greatest impact on the market. The customers mainly become agricultural machinery cooperatives, agricultural production enterprises, large agricultural enterprises, etc. The demand for products is increased, the market scale is shrinking, and there will be a fierce collision between excessive production capacity and insufficient demand. It is bound to undergo a reshuffle to rebuild the market competition pattern. .
With the continuous adjustment and improvement of the agricultural machinery subsidy policy, the agricultural machinery subsidy funds will focus on large-scale agricultural entities such as rural cooperatives and high-end, green and intelligent products. Leading enterprises with brand, technology, scale and service advantages will usher in development opportunities. The agricultural machinery market will shift from speed to quality.