ZTE's journey again: The first big single after the lifting of the ban came from China Mobile

On July 16, the first working day of ZTE's comprehensive lifting of the ban, it received a large share of orders from China Mobile.

According to the public announcement information released by China Mobile's procurement and bidding network information, ZTE became a candidate for the majority share in China Mobile's 2018 GPON equipment (new part) centralized procurement (Bid 2, Bid 3) people.

Specifically, in the bidding section 2 'OLT equipment, XG-PON MDU equipment and smart home gateway equipment', ZTE has a share of not less than 70%, and the bid price is 4.8658 billion yuan (excluding tax). More than 30% share. In the tender three 'OLT equipment, XGS-PON smart home gateway equipment', ZTE obtained the full share, the bid price was 33.23 million yuan.

Orders worth hundreds of millions of yuan, for ZTE, which has been suspended for nearly three months, is undoubtedly a 'snow in the snow'.

In China Mobile's 2018 GPON equipment (new part) centralized procurement (segment 1) released by China Mobile Purchasing and Bidding Network on June 25, the first candidate Huawei obtained the bidding section of an 'OLT equipment, GPON SBU equipment and The MDU equipment is not less than 50% of the winning bid, the second and third candidates are respectively the Bonfire Communications with a winning bid of not less than 30%, and Shanghai Nokia Bell with a winning bid of no more than 20%.

In the first paragraph, Huawei's bid price is 9.1703 billion yuan (excluding tax).

According to China Mobile's previous announcement, in the company's 2016 GPON HGU equipment centralized procurement, FiberHome's winning bids ranked first, reaching 32%, Huawei, Shanghai Bell, and ZTE were 26%, 23% and 19 respectively. %.

In the company's 2015-2016 GPON SFU equipment centralized procurement, Huawei won the first place, reaching 27.78%, followed by Fiber Optic Communications 22.22%, Shanghai Bell 19.44%, Resconda 16.67%, ZTE 13.89 %.

For the Zhongxing large share orders announced on the 16th, Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter, saying that this is because the Chinese government encourages China's three major operators to provide more orders to ZTE.

According to the announcement of China Mobile's official website last year, on November 24, 2017, during the China Mobile Global Partner Conference, China Mobile and ZTE held a strategic cooperation agreement signing ceremony. The two sides will be in smart cities, smart homes, and secure terminal service platforms. The next generation of network intelligent operation and maintenance, the next generation of network technology in five major areas to carry out in-depth cooperation, and jointly cultivate a good ecological environment, and promote the sustainable development of the industry.

GPON, the Gigabit-Capable Passive Optical Network, is a flexible Gigabit-level fiber access network proposed by ITU-T (ITU Telecommunication Standardization Sector). It is ATM. Cell (Asynchronous Transfer Mode) and GEM frame (GPON Encapsulation Mode), which carry multiple services and support broadband and full service access for commercial and residential services.

10G GPON and asymmetric Gigabit intelligent gateway equipment is an important force for China Mobile recently. In September last year, Wang Lei, deputy director of China Mobile Research Institute Network, attended an event last year and said that at the end of August 2017, China Mobile has completed the 10G GPON experimental test. Through comprehensive evaluation of equipment functions and performance, 10G GPON and asymmetric Gigabit intelligent gateway equipment are basically mature, and have the conditions for further commercialization. This means that China Mobile is moving towards 1000M high-speed broadband. development of.

According to ZTE's official website, in September 2017, ZTE was the first to release 10G PON terminal products using BOB technology. With the increase of fiber-fiber structure, the terminal volume was reduced by nearly 1/4, making it easier for families to put. It is reported that this 10G PON terminal has successfully completed the China Mobile XG-PON test.

ZTE official website also pointed out that ZTE is the leader in optical access and the leader of 10G PON. Following the release of the world's first 10G PON uplink intelligent gateway in 2016, ZTE has once again become the pioneer of 10G PON terminal products using BOB solution. According to the IHS report of the world-renowned consulting organization, in the first quarter of 2017, ZTE's 10G PON (including XG-PON and 10G EPON) market share ranked first in the world.

In an article in the December 2017 issue of the operator World Network, there is data showing that in 2016, among the annual sales revenue of equipment vendors in the GPON market, Huawei accounted for 37%, followed by ZTE and Nokia. At 30% and 22% respectively, in the first quarter of 2017, Huawei, ZTE and Nokia had market shares of 39%, 28% and 24% respectively.

From the bidding situation of China Mobile's three tenders in 2018, Huawei is still the biggest winner, winning the bid amount of about 616 million yuan; followed by ZTE, the winning bid amount is about 374 million yuan, and the winning bids of Bonfire and Shanghai Nokia Bell respectively About 284 million yuan and 178 million yuan.

After the comprehensive lifting of the ban, where does ZTE go?

According to several media reports, since the announcement of the lifting of the ban on ZTE by the US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) at noon on July 13th, local time, ZTE began to start business recovery.

Some media said that since the early morning of July 14, ZTE employees have arrived at work, and ZTE's terminal business line in Mexico has issued the world's first order.

The Securities Times’ public account, 'China Merchants', said that ZTE’s employees who have been working since the weekend have become busy again. A lady with a badge has called and screamed. 'What is the situation in Pakistan? ......'. Some employees also told the Securities Times reporter, 'In fact, the leadership did not ask for work on weekends, the departments are spontaneously organized to go to work. Everyone has a very deep understanding of the common destiny of breathing, not looking for work in the morning for a long time. Find a parking space. '

On July 14th, the Securities Times visited the ZTE headquarters, and the screen showed the subtitles 'Unblocked! Painful pain! Go on the journey again!' (Source: e公司官微)

Enthusiastic, but the road ahead is still difficult.

Bloomberg issued a statement on July 17 that the first major test facing ZTE after its recovery was 'manual shortage'.

Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter, saying that at present, ZTE is trying to mobilize more workers to return to work, but from a practical situation, in a short time, it is difficult for ZTE to convince thousands of people from distant provinces to return to their original places. The place of work. As for the specific figures, people familiar with the matter said that more than three-quarters of the workers in ZTE returned to their hometowns after ZTE’s business interruption, and they were scattered from ZTE’s base to return home, which was difficult to recall.

The more complicated aspect of the ZTE artificial problem is that ZTE workers are often recruited by third-party agencies and dispatched to the ZTE factory, which is different from other companies in the region.

According to a recent job advertisement released by Bloomberg, ZTE’s job advertisements show that ZTE’s asking price for assembly workers is 13 yuan per hour, while Foxconn’s salary for assembly workers is 21 yuan per hour.

In addition, ZTE will have to wait for major suppliers such as Qualcomm on the other side of the ocean to re-send ZTE, which will take some time.

Bloomberg said that as of Sunday, ZTE's assembly plants in Shenzhen and Changsha have started, but the number of employees on the production line is less than half of the normal production.

There Informed sources told Bloomberg, ZTE sales team in Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America have begun to start to communicate with existing and potential customers but ZTE still faces the risk of losing orders; there are rumors that ZTE has lost its value before 6 million euro contract, ZTE had to take over the project aims to provide wireless communications service provider equipment Wind Tre Italian and Swedish telecommunications equipment maker Ericsson.

According to ZTE July 13 release of the 2018 first half results notice shows that the United States government ban, ZTE first half losses reached 7 billion to 9 billion yuan.

However, in the first quarter before the ban, ZTE achieved a contrarian growth in the industry's sluggish environment. Net profit increased by 39% year-on-year to 1.687 billion yuan. Some media believe that this indicates that ZTE has accumulated long-term investment in R&D. Has a strong market competitiveness, won the recognition of customers.

According to the WeChat public account 'value and routine research', the previous analysis said that ZTE had issued a notice that it would start the issuance of 13 billion in 2018 to increase the research and development of 5G. This shows that ZTE is actually very scared at the same time as 5G. Money. Together with a fine of more than 1.4 billion US dollars, 'even if the country wants to support ZTE in the future, and let most of the 5G construction bidding let it do it, ZTE must first invest in great research and development to meet the needs of the market... Moreover, because of the ban on sales, ZTE has already begun to lag behind in research and development. It is already very strong to be able to leave the team; and the additional issue of 13 billion is basically impossible for ZTE's market capitalization.

In this situation, ZTE has two options, either to sell assets or to introduce strategic investments.

From the perspective of selling assets, ZTE can choose to sell securities at the moment, but when the downturn is not good, but take a step back, even if it is difficult to sell, it can also be mortgaged for money. ZTE can also sell its joint ventures or joint ventures, such as ZTE Energy and Nubia and so on.

In addition, ZTE can also choose to sell houses, sell home-based companies, and sell edge businesses such as education and IoT-related industries.

'Value and Routine Research' also specifically mentions ZTE Microelectronics. In the view of 'value and routine research', ZTE Microelectronics, as the country's third largest semiconductor design and manufacturing enterprise, has great potential for development, and its financial report shows that it is the fastest growing domestic market. Semiconductor design companies, if sold, there will be many people to pick up, and if ZTE is dragged down, it would be a pity.

In addition, there are rumors that there will be a new China ICT Group after the reorganization of several communications companies, and the group may take a wholly-owned acquisition of ZTE. However, some insiders said that the rumor credibility is not high.

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