Due to a fire at the Pensacola plant on July 10, 2018, Austrian Shengde informed its client company that the operation of the polymerization plant was interrupted on July 11, and all its polymer, compound and industrial wire supply suffered force majeure. It is expected that the force majeure duration will be up to About 1 month, the total impact of nylon 66 polymer capacity reached 600,000 tons (a global proportion of nearly 20%).
Many times caused by a force majeure event continued tight supply and demand, price increases expected to enhance the season: 18 June BASF force majeure event from the event less than in January, further tightening supply market In addition, in August that is, into 66 slices nylon sales peak season, product. prices are expected to further push up, or will exceed 2011-year high of 35,000 / ton ethylene diamine current price 77,000 / tonne (cash), nylon 66 price 33000 / ton, the downstream demand, the price of sustainable conduct.
Shenma is a domestic monopoly of the nylon 66 industry: the concentration of the nylon 66 industry chain is extremely high, INVISTA, BASF (Solvay), Aoshengde monopolizes 90% of the global production capacity of adiponitrile, and hexamethylenediamine, Adipic acid, nylon 66 salt and its polymers are also monopolized by 4-5 companies such as INVISTA, ASL, BASF and Shenma. At present, Shenma is the largest nylon 66 enterprise in China, and its industrial chain is the most complete. .
Earnings Forecast and Valuation: Revise up the company's 2018, 2019 and 2020 net profit of the mother to 10.39, 12.46 and 1.488 billion yuan (previous values of 5.60, 7.18 and 788 million yuan), EPS 2.35, 2.82 and 3.36 yuan (previous value 1.27, 1.62 and 1.78 yuan), PE7X, 6X and 5 times, continue to be strongly optimistic.