In 2018, China's polycarbonate gross profit was affected by the cost and market conditions, showing a continuous sharp decline. Up to now, the average gross profit of plastic raw materials PC was 8400 yuan / ton, and the year-on-year decline was 47%.
In the single month of 2018, the lowest monthly minimum gross profit is in July, up to 5,525 yuan / ton; the highest month is in February, reaching 10,106 yuan / ton; the largest change is in April, the average gross profit fell to 16 in the month. %.
In recent years, the plastics raw material PC market benefited from the decline in the cost of BPA expansion by the phenolic ketone plant in 2015. The rapid growth of domestic demand has brought about a significant increase in the market, supported by national multi-industry policy support, and the product's negative gross profit situation has been rapidly reversed. And maintain high gross profit for nearly three and a half years. In 2018, as the PC's downward cost transfer was blocked, the new capacity gradually released and the demand growth rate decreased, the PC product boom continued to fall.
At present, the difference between PC and BPA price scissors is significantly reduced, and the difference between BPA and phenol scissors is gradually expanding.
It can be seen from Figure 2 that since the beginning of March this year, the price difference between phenol and BPA has continued to be relaxed. The key supporting factor is the gradual stable operation of the domestic PC new capacity release, the increase in market demand, and the BPA market after Lihuayi is put into production. The volume of delivery decreased, and the BPA market supply gap continued to increase.
Despite the sectoral view, BPA also has a moderate correction trend. However, BPA is currently undergoing a gradual change in the demand structure. Under the limited capacity of new capacity, the market is bound to have room for upward adjustment. As a result, the domestic BPA gross profit growth during the year Fast, according to Zhuo Chuang estimates have reached 5,000 yuan / ton.
At present, the PC raw material of plastic raw materials has returned to the level of May 2017, and the market sentiment is weak. The gross profit is still in the downward channel. If the PC and BPA of the year-to-date calculation are used, the gross profit of the PC market can still be maintained at 1,000 yuan/ton. Above, but the gross profit margin will fall sharply to around 6%, which is expected to affect the commissioning process of the subsequent planned installation.