Ni Hong, who was in charge of real estate after the Spring Festival, served as a member of the party group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. The deputy minister has been three years old. On the afternoon of July 12, at the working meeting organized by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, he proposed that 'should be carried out with affection Changed. This came from a real-life film called "Anju", which he was very touched after. After a few days, he went to Heilongjiang, saw the collapsed area of the old building, and felt that the local situation was difficult. The shed was changed, but it was accurate. ' He also thanked the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission for investing a trillion in the past 10 years to change the shed. 'It is really money.'
Ni Hong mentioned that on May 19, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice to further regulate and control. The specific contents include adjusting supply, preparing market plans, controlling capital flow into real estate real estate, etc., hoping to stabilize prices and ensure stable market development. He said that at present everyone has some partial arguments about the shed reform. 'Everyone has to behave in a discipline, the market can't be chaotic, or a good policy will be chanted.'
It is worth noting that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has proposed that in the case of insufficient stocks of commodity housing and pressures for rising housing prices, the 2018 new construction shed reform project, which is mainly used for monetization, will not be used for development banks and agricultural development banks. stand by.
From this point of view, the country sends money to let the people buy a house, such a good day seems to be coming to an end. Not long ago, the market spread the news of the country's 'returning the local bank loan approval right' of the shed reform project, which immediately caused a chain reaction of the national property market. In particular, the third- and fourth-tier cities were the most violent, and triggered the overall shock of real estate concept stocks. Although the news of the monetary tightening of the shed was later rumored by CDB, several securities institutions said that the current policy is to promote monetization. The willingness to decline, the shed reforms slowed down the trend of real estate pulling.
In the past four years, the monetary resettlement of sheds has become a 'behind-the-scenes' of real estate sales. Monetization resettlement can directly drive the sales of local commercial housing, drive the inventory, and the newly-purchased housing groups formed after the sheds will be stimulated to enter the commercial housing market. Housing prices have risen, developers have further replenished stocks, indirectly pulling real estate investment. However, as the pressure on the third- and fourth-line stocks is reduced, this policy dividend is diminishing, such as raising housing prices, the more controversial the local debt crisis The more you come.
The hot shed is changed to a monetary resettlement, just like Pandora opened and closed the box, which is filled with the hope of the policy department and the people's good life, and also stores the greed of the stakeholders and the madness of the market. In the unforeseen future What will this power bring?
Open 'Magic Box'
At the working meeting of the day, in addition to Ni Hong, Director of the Housing Security Department Cao Jinyu, spokesman of the Ministry of Housing and Construction, Qin Haixiang, Director of the Investment Division of the Development and Reform Commission Tan Chengwen, and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Finance of the Ministry of Finance attended the meeting. The Ministry of Housing and Construction said that From January to June this year, the national shantytown renovation has started 3.63 million sets, accounting for 62.5% of the target tasks this year. Next, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will increase the construction of supporting infrastructure for the shed and change the shed according to the law. Ben, illegal spending is strictly prohibited.
According to Netease Real Estate Report, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development clearly put forward three requirements. First, localization measures to promote monetary resettlement, lack of commodity housing inventory, and pressure on housing prices to increase, should be targeted to timely adjust the shed reform resettlement policy, More ways to adopt newly-built sheds to change resettlement houses; Second, places with large stocks of commodity housing can continue to promote monetary resettlement in sheds. Third, further rationally define and grasp the scope and standards of shed reforms, and do not make a one-size-fits-all approach. No layer of indicators, not blindly spread debts.
The shed change, the full name of the shantytown renovation. The 'shanty town' generally refers to the simple structure of the city, poor earthquake resistance, namely earthquake resistance, fire prevention, poor flood control, residential overcrowding, poor function, poor living environment, no roads, no greening, no public event venues, There are two main ways to arrange houses with poor ventilation and ventilation. There are two main ways of resettlement: monetary resettlement and physical resettlement. Physical resettlement means that the government replaces the house with the house that has been demolished, and the monetary resettlement is required by the government. The resettled households will issue funds to purchase their own houses. The main providers of monetized capital placement are the National Development Bank, the Agricultural Development Bank and some commercial banks.
In 2005, Liaoning Province took the lead in launching the shantytown renovation plan for mining areas and old industrial areas, marking the start of the shantytown renovation project in China. As of 2014, the country has transformed 20 million households, about 1.5 million to 200 per year. Wanhu. However, the 'shed change' at that time was more linked to the people's livelihood project and had little to do with the commercial real estate industry.
The domestically-constructed shed reform process should start in 2014, reflected in the work report of the NPC government in the same year, and propose to complete the task of urban shantytown reconstruction by 2020. Among them, the planning shed change target from 2014 to 2017 The total is 4.7 million sets, 5.8 million sets and 6 million sets. The 2018 NPC Government Work Report shows that (in the past five years) more than 26 million sets of housing renovation in shanty towns, more than 17 million rural dilapidated houses, and hundreds of millions of people moved New home. At the same time, the launch of the new three-year shed reform plan, starting 5.8 million sets this year.
It is worth noting that in 2014, the State Council proposed three major requirements: strengthening the transformation and construction, innovating the financing system and strengthening the organization and leadership. The most influential, the most far-reaching impact on real estate is the PSL financing of the 'innovative financing system'.
After the physical resettlement was converted into monetary resettlement, the 'Pandora Box” of the shed was opened. The essence of the shed change was to demolish a large number of shantytown houses, and then provide loans through the central bank, through the CDB, local government. Providing funds to shantytown residents to purchase local commercial housing, thus forming a huge demand for home purchases in the short term. Therefore, the PSL's placement will largely determine the shed reform policy.
After the creation of PSL, the central bank began to invest huge amounts of money, and the loan interest rate and years are very loose. In 2014, in 2015 and 2016, the central bank added PSL to 383.1 billion yuan, 698.1 billion yuan, 971.4 billion yuan, compound Growth of 59%. As of January 2017, PSL totaled 2.11 trillion, up 73% year-on-year. According to China Securities Securities, PSL interest rates have dropped from 4.5% in 2014 to 2.75% in November 2015. The interest rates of special loans for CDB and agricultural sheds have remained at 4.14%-4.99%, which is lower than the benchmark interest rate of 14.9%, and the loan term ranges from 20-25 years.
Compared with physical compensation, monetary compensation has multiple advantages. A domestic real estate industry research organization analyzed that 'PSL has achieved a leverage to reach the property market to destock, stimulate local GDP, resolve local debt risks, and promote the four purposes of the people's livelihood project. It is believed that from the government's point of view, monetary compensation can shorten the resettlement period and save the transitional resettlement costs. From the perspective of macroeconomic regulation and control, monetary compensation has the function of digesting social stock housing and helping the real estate market inventory clear.
In fact, the monetary resettlement of sheds can be called the “behind-the-scenes” of real estate sales last year. In 2017, the demand for commercial housing driven by the shantytowns’ reorganization and monetization was 301.59 million square meters, accounting for 18.33% of the sales area of commercial housing. The sales area of commercial housing in the fourth-tier cities is 28.50%.
'Get and lose' in the third and fourth tier cities
When it comes to destocking, the theme of the property market in the third and fourth tier cities has been related to this in recent years. Since 2014, China's real estate regulation and control policy has been the theme of 'destocking'. Benefiting from the central government's efforts to promote destocking and sheds in the past two years. The house with many years of backlog was quickly released and flowed into the market. In the spring of 2016, Chen Zhenggao, then Minister of Housing and Construction, announced for the first time that the 2016 national shed reform and monetary resettlement drove the residential sales area of 250 million square meters, accounting for the national residential sales area. 18%. For third- and fourth-tier cities, this proportion is even larger.
Yueyang City, Hunan Province is typical of the third- and fourth-tier cities in the central region. The proportion of monetized resettlement in 2016-2017 is 74%, 98%. Estimated sales of residential houses account for 36% and 53% of the city's total sales area (the total residential sales area is 4.77 million square meters and 5.24 million square meters. In the de-chemical cycle, the number of months of inventory in the downtown area of Yueyang fell from 18 months in early 2015 to 14 months at the end of 2015, and then fell to 11 months at the end of 2016. 2017 At the end of February, this figure fell to 10 months.
It is worth noting that land prices, rising house prices, and declining inventories are also trending. Public information shows that in 2016, the land price of Yueyang Central City rose by 21.9%, and the average price of residential sales rose by 15.4%. Not only the central region, but also the economic strength and population flow. The advantage of the eastern third- and fourth-tier cities, after being stimulated by the 'energy' of destocking pressure and shed reform, the rapid degeneration, house prices into high positions.
Constrained by slow population growth and industrial migration, Changzhou, Jiangsu Province was once known as the 'ghost town', and its real estate market was once high in inventory. According to CITIC Securities data, Changzhou City (excluding Jintan, Fuyang) accumulated sales area of commodity housing The peak is 8.24 million square meters in August 2014, and the decontamination period is 21.4 months. The local government has adopted various means to solve the inventory problem. In addition to restricting supply, it also adopts less construction or even stops the construction of physical security housing. Some housing methods control supply.
In order to control the relative stability of housing prices, the Changzhou government has been quite innovative in terms of policies. The use of rented social housing to provide public rental housing, the use of the 'house ticket system' in the shed reform, partially avoiding the supply of affordable housing in the third and fourth tier cities. Excessive impact on the market of commercial housing.
According to comprehensive statistics, most of the 'de-stocking' policies introduced in some regions of the country since 2016 have been related to the shed reform. For example, in March 2016, the actual situation of the supply of affordable housing and the high inventory of commercial housing will begin in Yunnan Province this year. No new public rental housing will be built, and the monetization of shantytowns will be strengthened, and the passage of affordable housing to digest commercial housing will be opened. In the same period, Xinjiang Province will increase the conversion ratio of affordable housing and commercial housing, and increase the proportion of monetized housing in shantytowns. In April 2016, Hubei Province requested that the proportion of monetized resettlement in the local area will be no less than 50%.
The rhythm of the rapid destocking of the 3rd and 4th lines brought a big reshuffle of local real estate enterprises. More first-line developers entered the local market, and their rich experience in developing and operating real estate helped the local real estate market to recover. According to Shen Wanhongyuan statistics Take the sample of the third-tier cities in the southwest as an example. In 2015, the top ten real estate developers in the region only occupied a place in the first-tier real estate enterprises. In 2016, the number of first-tier real estate enterprises ranked 3, and the market share rose rapidly from 2.3% to 12.7%. Housing companies have reduced from nearly 300 to double digits.
It is worth noting that with the entry of leading domestic real estate enterprises, the marketization process of the industry will be further promoted. Wang Sheng, a securities analyst of the above-mentioned institutions, said that the land finance will be transformed into high-priced land sales, which will promote local housing prices, and benefit the third and fourth tiers. Developers. 'In the past three- and four-tier cities, real estate development is not mature in the business operation mode. Land development is mainly based on agreement transfer, rather than bidding and auction. This kind of land finance is mainly based on land sales, rather than pulling. High land price. '
Disputes of interest
Different from the property market's impact on the sales of first- and second-tier cities, the over-the-counter monetization resettlement policy has supported the sales of real estate in the third- and fourth-tier cities. However, with the reduction of destocking pressure, the shed reform monetization policy is also effective. Faced with many controversies.
'The shed change is artificially created, the CDB contributes, the real estate developers develop profits, the relocated households take money to form a large number of middle class, and a large number of demolition incomes enter the real estate. The funds issued by CDB are locked by the real estate property market without worrying Inflation, driving GDP to increase tax revenue, local profitability, commercial bank mortgages increase profit, and house prices increase profits of real estate speculators, which can be described as win-win. After touching the news of the recent shacking monetary tightening, Senior researchers in the real estate field are slightly resentful. 'Only the pressure just needed is increasing, it is really back to the cut leeks.'
A first-line land market analyst who did not want to be named said that when the house was demolished on the 3rd and 4th lines, the local government would have a considerable amount of land value-added tax and other taxes and fees in addition to the land finance. According to the VAT calculation rule, ' Sales income minus deductions (deductible expenses include: land payment + construction cost + sales management fee + financial expenses, etc.), calculate the value-added amount and the value-added ratio, and then calculate the tax increase according to the gradient. 'The property market is hot, land transfer The quantity and price have increased, and the related taxes are definitely rising.'
With the favorable impact of monetization on the rapid destocking, the land dividends obtained by stakeholders are attracting attention. Yan Yuejin, research director of the Yiju Research Center, said that from the perspective of land value-added tax, taxes and land prices The relationship, to some extent, reflects the relationship between land price increases and land finance, and the related income increases in line with expectations.
A number of TOP20 developers who worked in real estate in the early stage of the property said to reporters, 'The purpose of the shed reform is to speed up the urbanization construction, not to raise the housing prices. ' A few years ago (local government) have a lot of inventory pressure, the house Difficult to sell, the price is low. In the past few years, the inventory has been quite powerful. The real estate has come in, and the price has gone up. 'The monetization of the shed has played a role in fueling the economy. 'As for the 'tax revenue income' collected by the government department, 'phase Compared with the huge shed reform loan expenses and huge amount of land finance, this money is nothing.'
The shacks changed the monetization and tightened things, and got the rumors of the CDB. However, a number of securities institutions said that the current policy's willingness to promote monetization has declined, and the trend of shed reforms on real estate has slowed down. Haitong Securities analyst Jiang Chao It is said that the destocking cycle of real estate in the third- and fourth-tier cities has dropped to a new low for many years, and the need for further destocking has been reduced. The increase in real estate sales has led to the continued increase in housing prices on the third and fourth tiers, with the risk of bringing new bubbles.
'Does the scale of local debt expand, will it form an uncontrollable debt crisis? In the past period of destocking movement, new stocks have formed, but housing prices are not the same as before, the property market forms a barrier lake, how “Relief?” Cui Xiucheng, a senior analyst at Kerry Institute, believes that the potential crisis behind the monetization of the shed will be concerned. In addition, the shed change will have a negative impact on the local government’s land sales revenue, thus indirectly affecting the city investment platform. Potential income or cash inflows.
'The success of the city, the most important thing is that the city industry is solid, the economy maintains a certain growth rate. Changzhou has always been a dynamic city despite the adjustment of the property market. ' CITIC Securities, an analyst who declined to be named, said From the perspective of real estate policy, the most crucial thing is that '(local government) should tolerate the reduction of supply of land. 'Because of economic health, a city with more than 40 billion fiscal revenues still has enough capacity to refuse the temptation of the land market in the short term. '
'Without the economic foundation, the bubble will eventually be a bubble.' Cui Xiucheng said, 'The next currency should be loose, but after the funds allocated to the shed reform become less, the originally loose money will flow into the real estate, but it will never be Third- and fourth-tier cities with insufficient development capacity should be first- and second-tier cities.
At present, Changzhou's urbanization rate has reached 70%, and the per capita housing area has significantly exceeded the national average. Even if the inventory is more successful today, it is still difficult to maintain more than 6 million square meters of commercial housing for a long time. In addition, commercial real estate risks cannot be ignored. From the case of Changzhou, it is clear that destocking is not to re-invest in real estate development investment, but to digest historical risks. Under the premise of some success in destocking, the next step is to cultivate new economic growth points. The teacher said.