Since the end of the 'one minute' market on June 27, the PTA price has continued to rebound. On July 9, the mid-term price of the 1809 contract reached a maximum of 5,948 yuan / ton, a new high since March last year. The author believes that despite the trade Under the background of the war, the domestic macroeconomic situation is still uncertain, but the PTA supply and demand side is tight, and the upstream crude oil trend is firm, and the price is expected to hit a new high.
First, the market supply is limited.
In terms of production capacity, there is very little new PTA capacity in China this year. The completed Sichuan Yuda project has a low probability of production due to raw material supply problems, and the prospect of restarting Fujian Fuhaichuang equipment in the short term is uncertain, so the PTA supply will increase in the second half of the year. Limited amount.
In terms of stock supply, there are still many PTA enterprise maintenance devices in the near future. Hanbang Petrochemical's 2.2 million tons/year device was overhauled from June 28 to July 20; Liwan polyester 700,000 tons/year device was overhauled from July 2 to 19 Hengli Petrochemical's 2.2 million tons/year plant plan will be overhauled on August 1~15; Honggang Petrochemical's 1.5 million tons/year plant, Yadong Petrochemical's 700,000 tons/year plant plan will be inspected in September. In addition, Yisheng Ningbo 2.2 million The ton/year installation, the 1.5 million tons/year installation of Jiaxing Petrochemical, and the probability of overhauling the Zhuhai BP 1.1 million tons/year installation in the third quarter are also very large, and the actual maintenance loss output is larger than expected. In addition, the summer typhoon in the southeastern China frequently occurs. Operation or has a certain impact. Therefore, the short-term PTA industry operating rate has limited upside.
Second, the downstream demand is strong.
From the main downstream, this year's domestic polyester industry plans to increase capacity by more than 4 million tons per year, of which more than 3 million tons per year have been put into production in the first half of the year. The demand for PTA has been released. In addition, the price of polyester products has been increasing in the first half of the year. Rising, the industry's profit margin increased compared with the same period of the previous year. The inventory level of some varieties was lower than that of previous years, and the factory orders were in good condition. CCF data showed that as of July 6, the domestic polyester comprehensive start load was 92.6%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Polyester Factory POY , FDY, DTY inventory is 3 days, 12 days, 20.2 days. Driven by high profits and low inventory, the domestic polyester industry operating rate will remain high, while the second half of the expansion of the production base will continue to increase PTA Just needed.
Third, there is support at the cost end.
The recent rise in crude oil prices has indirectly promoted the PTA market. PX is the main raw material for the production of PTA, and its supply and price are highly correlated with crude oil. Although US shale oil production increased more than expected in the first half of the year, it implemented higher production reduction performance in OPEC countries. Under the support of the rate, the global crude oil inventory level has kept falling. Recently, the geopolitical crisis in the international market has continued. As the United States withdraws from the Iranian nuclear agreement and increases sanctions, the future tightening of Iranian crude oil exports is expected to increase, or the balance of global crude oil supply and demand will be formed. Threat. Affected by this, the oil price center is expected to keep going up in the second half of the year, thus supporting the PTA cost.
In summary, under the impetus of stable supply and good demand, coupled with the upward trend of the upstream crude oil market, the PTA price increase is expected to continue.