Halfway through 2018, a total of 15 batches of waste were imported in the first half of the year, 12 of which contained waste plastics, totaling 58,227 tons, and the recently announced 15th batch of approvals did not have any waste plastics.
Compared with last year, a total of 11 batches of waste plastics were imported throughout 2017. As of May 2017, a total of 7,050,562 tons were imported.
In other words, this year's imports are less than 1% of last year's imports. In the next six months, whether or not waste plastics continue to be imported is still unknown, but everything will be closed on December 31, 2018.
Gao Chunyu, a senior expert at the Institute of Economics and Technology of Sinopec Group, said at a recent plastics industry conference that domestic imports of waste plastics have been largely eliminated, but products imported under the new material model are increasing.
1, waste plastic imports have become history
The import of waste plastics began in the 1990s. The main reason is the rapid development of domestic plastic consumption, and domestic plastic production cannot meet the demand of consumption, so imported waste plastics make up for this shortage.
In the history of more than 20 years of import of waste plastics, the highest import year was in 2012, importing 8.87 million tons of waste plastics, and the import of waste plastics showed a downward trend in the next few years. By 2017, the import volume was 7.05 million tons.
Whether domestic or foreign, the use of waste plastics is very extensive, PET is a very good raw material for chemical fiber, PE can be used in most packaging products, in addition to food packaging.
Therefore, after the domestic waste plastics import is basically completely stopped, there are still 40,000 tons of waste plastics processed abroad in the form of recycled pellets imported into China every month.
Because the price of waste plastics is relatively low, many products in China need low-cost things. After the waste plastics imports stop, it has a great impact on the plastics market at home and abroad.
2. What changes have occurred in the global new material market after the import has stopped?
Take polyolefin as an example, look at the changes in the global new material market from the perspective of capacity, demand and consumption.
Polyethylene
In 2017, the global polyethylene production capacity increased by more than 6 million tons, of which the linear increase was the most, reaching more than 3 million tons, and the global production capacity has reached 110 million tons.
In 2017, the global demand for polyethylene has reached 92 million tons, an increase of 3.8%, and the growth of demand has maintained a very good level.
In PE consumption, film products are still the main driving force for future growth. Due to the slowdown in the construction industry, the growth rate of pipe materials has declined. The consumption of film is still the main driving factor for consumption growth.
Polypropylene
In 2017, global polypropylene production capacity increased by 3.69 million tons, which is the lowest growth rate in the past three years. In 2015, global polypropylene production capacity increased by more than 4 million tons in 2016. At present, the global polypropylene production capacity is close to 8000. Ten thousand tons.
Global polypropylene demand is 70 million tons, up 4% year-on-year. Like polypropylene and polyethylene, global demand growth has remained at a very good condition.
The consumption structure of drawing materials and films is increasing. Due to the slowdown in the growth of automobile production in Europe, especially in the United States, the global injection molding of polypropylene has declined.
3, China's polyolefin market changes after the import stops
Polyethylene
In recent years, China's polyethylene production capacity has grown slowly. In 2017, China's new polyethylene production capacity was more than 1 million tons, the output was 16 million tons, the import was more than 12 million tons, and the apparent consumption was 28 million tons.
In 2017, demand for polyethylene increased by 11%, and the demand for 2.6 million tons increased. Therefore, the growth rate of domestic polyethylene production is far lower than the growth of domestic demand, and polyethylene still needs a large amount of imports.
This is why a large amount of polyethylene waste plastics have been imported domestically for many years, and the recycled particles of polyethylene still need to be imported in large quantities.
Polypropylene
In 2017, China's new polypropylene production capacity is about 800,000 tons. At the end of this year, the polypropylene production capacity is about 23.5 million tons. The output is 20.2 million tons per year, the import volume is 4.9 million tons, and the apparent consumption is 24.93 million tons. 10.4%.
From the analysis of the situation in 2017, the slowdown in the growth rate of polypropylene production capacity is the main reason for the current price of polyethylene and polypropylene.
4. Prospects for polyolefin prices in the second half of 2018
Future changes in polyolefin prices will be determined by oil prices, new capacity and consumer demand.
international market
It is estimated that oil prices are unlikely to rise very high in the next six months, most of which fluctuate between 65 and 75 US dollars, and the overall price is relatively stable.
From 2017 to 2018, the global capacity of polyethylene has continued to increase, especially in the United States. From 2018 onwards, the United States may become the main provider of polyethylene export growth, and each quarter's exports will be close. The level of 3 million tons, while before it was in the interval of 200-2.5 million tons.
As economic development drives the consumption of polyethylene and China's restrictions on the import of waste plastics, the market needs more new materials to supplement. In 2018, global polyethylene demand is close to 100 million tons, up 4.3% year-on-year. The fastest growth is still Linear low density polyethylene.
The growth of global polypropylene will be higher, which is reflected in the growth of the global economy, which will lead to the development of the industry. In particular, the growth of bulk raw materials will drive the growth of packaging materials. This growth may reach 4.7%, and the growth rate will increase by 0.7 compared with 2017. Percentage points.
Domestic market
In the first four months of 2018, domestic polyethylene production increased by 3.1%, imports increased by 4.58 million tons, up 15.3% year-on-year; while domestic production of polypropylene increased very rapidly, imports decreased, and the supply of polypropylene slowed down significantly.
Due to the cancellation of waste plastics, as waste plastics do not participate in new materials to replace the growth of waste plastics, it is estimated that the demand for polyethylene in China this year will be about 30 million tons, an increase of about 7% year-on-year. About 2-3 percentage points to replace Waste plastics, too, it is expected that demand for polypropylene will increase by 7.5% this year, and 2.5% will replace used plastics.
In addition, the Sino-US trade war is an unresolved topic. As the current domestic polyethylene increase mainly comes from the United States, if polyethylene cannot be imported smoothly from the United States, the shortage of value waste, the supply of domestic polyethylene may cause problems, but also Looking at the third quarter of this year, it is expected that the price difference between ethylene and propylene will remain relatively stable in the future, especially if the price of polypropylene will exceed that of polyethylene.