He believes that in the AI era, creativity will become the biggest competitiveness of entrepreneurs. At present, China lacks innovation from 0 to 1. At present, the most need for free thinking atmosphere and the platform for exchange with the international frontier.
Quick summary of the golden sentence:
If you want to be a big trend, you need to have several elements: It looks very beautiful and ambitious, and it has the opportunity to make many people earn money. It has certain technical characteristics, most people don’t understand it, but I am afraid that I will be dropped by the tide of history. AI has these characteristics.
However, all the waves have the same characteristics, that is, regardless of whether the subjective will is good or bad, more than 90% of those who commit themselves to these tides will fail, and the success probability of entrepreneurs is less than 1%.
Today's China needs more than just 1 to N creativity, and less 0 to 1 innovation. Between 0 and 1, what we need most is the atmosphere of free thinking and the platform for exchanges with the latest international cutting-edge technology.
Regardless of the development of AI technology or the development of human technology, in terms of computing, logic, and memory, robots will certainly surpass humans, but will not exceed humanity in terms of creativity.
The following is a speech of the speech:
Today's theme is AI, I want to talk about a problem - the bottleneck of AI development.
AI has the elements to become a wave
Looking back, we have experienced several times of technology and business.
First, the rise of computer science in the mid-1980s, and the Internet tide that began in 1998. Since 2010, we have experienced several rumors, such as serving O2O, including massage at home, haircuts, etc., and later evolved. It’s like a farce, it’s getting more and more absurd. In the last year, we experienced another craze – 'coin-selling coins', many people are keen on issuing coins, telling stories to buy coins. This boom last year It only slowly cooled down around November. Now, AI is also a wave of inspiration.
Throughout history, one thing has to be a big trend. It has several elements: It looks very beautiful and ambitious, and it has the opportunity to make many people earn money; and it has certain technical characteristics, such as the Internet we said before. To date, bitcoin, blockchain, big data, most people don't understand, but they are afraid that they will fall by the tide of history.
AI has these features.
At the same time, most people don't understand AI, don't know how to get the algorithm, how to design the chip. So, today AI has some basic elements to become an investment, entrepreneurial wave.
However, all the waves have the same characteristics, that is, regardless of whether the subjective will is good or bad, more than 90% of the people who commit themselves to these tides will fail. From historical data, the success probability of entrepreneurs is less than 1%. We need to make a rational analysis in a wave, and think calmly.
The bottleneck of Chinese chips in smart chips
The development of AI, where is the bottleneck?
There are several basic elements in the development of AI: one is big data, the other is algorithm, and the third is chip. The chip is very important, but there are still very few chips with artificial intelligence.
For example, one of the selling points of Huawei's Mate10 mobile phone is an artificial intelligence chip. The application of this chip is not in the field of general communication, but in photo processing. It can recognize and adjust the intensity and contrast of photo glazing. Take a better photo, this is a simple application of artificial intelligence.
From a data point of view, each of us generates massive amounts of data every day. It is easy to master a person's behavior now. As long as there is a mobile phone number (registered with various accounts), you can understand the person's living habits and characteristics. Clear and clear. There are many business opportunities.
However, most of the data, even more than 99% (for individuals), is useless. A company we invest in collects 13T data every day, but the data itself is useless and requires a lot of processing. To make big data valuable, this process requires algorithms. The algorithm makes the data orderly and can uncover what we want.
In the final analysis, we have to implant algorithms and data processing capabilities into the chip. Without such a chip, the speed of calculation is always slow.
The recent ZTE incident shows that we are lagging behind people in chip technology. In terms of chip manufacturing, only a few companies are doing it because they need a lot of investment. But the companies that do chip design are a lot of things, some are purely indiscriminate. There are not many chip design companies running out, and fewer companies can produce good smart chips.
In my opinion, the bottleneck of China's current chip is that the production capacity of smart chips is very weak. Although the domestic market can already be streamed, there is still a gap compared with the international one.
Innovation from 0 to 1 requires an atmosphere of free thinking
The future is the era of AI. Today's China needs more than just the idea of 1 to N, and the lack of innovation from 0 to 1. Between 0 and 1, what we need most is the atmosphere of free thinking and the latest in international frontiers. Platform for technical exchanges.
From the bottleneck of AI, in addition to the above mentioned chip problems, there are more institutional-level thinking. For example, in education, how many of our primary and secondary education are educating students to do creative things? Maybe In the next 20 years, the knowledge of memory in the education system is completely unnecessary (and spend a lot of time to learn), because robots can be replaced.
There are still many people worried that manufacturing robots are not human beings digging their own graves? Are we creating enemies that will destroy ourselves? It is possible.
Last year, I went to Yale University for a short-term study. One thing made me very shocked. They have a team that made two pairs of artificial chromosomes in the laboratory. I want to study the combination of artificial chromosomes and human chromosomes. biological.
The team was very cautious in studying this issue. They reported the project to the relevant ethics committee. The Ethics Committee and Yale University asked them to stop research in this area, because they didn't know what would be created, maybe a human being would appear. Things that can't be eliminated. Eventually this lab was permanently closed.
I cite this example to illustrate what kind of things AI will produce, and many of them are not known to us. This makes me feel that AI applications have bottlenecks and limitations.
But can computers replace human creativity? Is it possible that robots can write the best novels in the world one day? Create the best opera in human history? Create the best Beijing opera in China's history? We don't know But I think that no matter how AI technology develops, in terms of logic and memory, robots will definitely surpass humans, but they will not exceed humanity in terms of creativity.
When we enter the era of artificial intelligence, when almost everyone is talking about AI, how many technologies will really change our way of life and the way we live. Where are the technical and institutional bottlenecks? These need us to be clear and rational. Thinking.
Reporter / Yan Lijiao