Recently, data from several market analysis organizations showed that the price of small and medium-sized TV LCD panels began to pick up, especially 32 inches. The price rebound in July was more obvious. TCL Group said on the investor relations interactive platform that it is due to the terminal product shipment season. And the relationship between supply and demand continues to improve, and the recovery of the TV LCD panel industry is expected to continue.
However, the price of large-size TV LCD panels has been in place. There are data showing that the price of 55-inch and 65-inch is still falling slightly. Can the TV LCD panel market continue to pick up in the second half of 2018?
In the peak season, the price of small and medium-sized panels rose slightly.
After the continuous downturn in the first half of the year, the TV LCD panel has been dry for a long time, and the price has finally started to rise. The 32-inch, 39-inch and 42-inch prices have risen slightly, and the 32-inch price rebound is more obvious. Qunzhi Consulting, Aowei Cloud Network Report Both pointed out that in early July, the price of 32 inches rose by $3. Currently, the price of 32 inches continues to rise.
Ovi Cloud analysts said that the third quarter is the peak season for the whole machine manufacturers to stock up, driving the demand for TV LCD panels to increase, prices began to rise. In the third quarter, TV panel prices will continue to pick up.
The driving force behind the TV LCD panel industry's recovery is not the domestic market, but the overseas market. After the domestic market has passed 6.18, July to August is the off-season, and the inventory is high, the demand for TV LCD panels is not high. The overseas market is in the peak season for stocking, and the demand for LCD panels is more urgent. Li Yaqin, deputy general manager of Qunzhi Consulting, revealed that at the end of the second quarter, the color TV inventory in the North American market was relatively small. Samsung, LG and TCL were all stocking for the fourth quarter. LCD panel price rebound.
This round of increase is mainly concentrated in small and medium-sized TV LCD panels, which has little effect on large size.
WitsView report pointed out that due to the sharp impact of TV panel prices, Innolux, AUO and LGD in the first quarter of the 6th generation line product mix adjustment, reduce the glass investment of 65-inch TV panels, increase the investment of small-size TV panels or monitor panels BOE, Huaxing Optoelectronics reduced the investment of 32-inch panels and switched to larger-size TV products. In addition, Huaxing Optoelectronics and Samsung Display were rebuilt in March and April respectively.
Li Yaqin pointed out that the growth of the TV market in the first half of the year was mainly concentrated on large size. LCD panel manufacturers turned more capacity to large-size panels in order to make profits. For example, Innolux switched to 65 inches, BOE switched to 55 inches. Panel manufacturers have a large production capacity structure. The size of the panel, resulting in 32-inch, 39-inch, 43-inch and other small and medium-sized panel supply dropped significantly, but the overseas market demand for small and medium size has not decreased, which led to the rise in the price of small and medium size.
The year-on-year growth is not obvious, and there is no guarantee that it will continue to pick up.
Can the TV LCD panel industry continue to pick up in the second half of 2018?
Generally speaking, the price trend of TV LCD panels is closely related to the demand of the downstream machine market. However, the domestic market color TV market is not prosperous in the first half of this year. "China's color TV consumption and market trends forecast for the second half of the year from January to June 2018" It is pointed out that from January to June, the domestic color TV sales volume was about 23 million units, down 4.2% year-on-year.
In the first half of the year, domestic manufacturers' price wars and World Cup marketing failed to drive sales growth. The domestic TV market is not optimistic in the second half of the year. The relevant person in charge of Hisense predicts that the domestic color TV market will fall by 2% in 2018. The relevant person in charge of Sony pointed out that in 2018 The situation of China's color TV market in the second half of the year is comparable to that of the first half
Unlike the domestic market, the overseas market continued to grow in the first half of the year. According to the “China's color TV consumption and market trends forecast for the second half of the year from January to June 2018”, the output of color TVs from January to May was 33.68 million units, up 26.6% year-on-year. IHS Mark Rong, senior analyst of Markit, believes that the price recovery of TV LCD panels is a good start. If the growth of overseas markets can be promoted through low-priced products in the second half of the year, it is likely to drive the price of LCD panels to continue to grow. At present, it is impossible to assert whether it will Continue to warm up.
At present, the regional market is driving the rebound of the price of small and medium-sized panels. This rebound is more obvious than the second quarter of the downturn, but there is no significant growth in the third quarter of last year. Overall, there is no change in the overall situation. Market pattern.
Moreover, from the perspective of the global market, the situation of oversupply is still growing. It is understood that the first phase of the Rainbow Xianyang 8.6-generation line project will undergo a half-year mass production climb, and the monthly production capacity will reach 60,000 pieces. BOE Hefei 10.5 generation line and CLP The capacity of Panda Chengdu 8.6 generation line is also increasing. With the continuous release of these new production lines and the production capacity of the original production line, the risk of overcapacity of TV LCD panels will further increase.
Therefore, the recovery of this small and medium-sized price is mainly the result of seasonal demand growth. It cannot determine the overall panel price trend. Next, overcapacity is the normal state of the TV LCD panel industry. How to avoid falling into low-price competition and ensure that profits are big. A problem faced by panel manufacturers.