Vantage shares encounter black swan: the inevitable chance

As the Gallo roosters pass through the World Cup finals, many consumers are ready to purchase invoices, waiting for the final hammer to fall - on July 15th, the French team won the championship, Vantage 'winning package' retired. Nowadays, As Croatia wins England 2-0, most people have already decided that this year's 'Hercules Cup' is not France. For the "Hao gambling" French team's Vantage shares, in the past half a month, it is half of the sea half The flames of the 'deep waters'. From July 2, Vantage's stock price has opened a cliff-like decline, the company's market value has evaporated by one-half, which fully reflects what is meant by 'waist 斩'. On the one hand, consumers' promises are fulfilled, and one side is stocks. In the middle of the stock market, the anti-profit days, in all kinds of negative and positive news, Vantage re-adjusted the content of private placements, plans to raise 500 million yuan, blood transfusion for Vantage shares.

On July 5, Vantage disclosed the announcement of adjusting the price and number of non-public offerings after the implementation of the 2017 profit distribution plan. The adjustment was based on the 2016 non-public offering resolution. After adjustment, this The issuance price of the second non-public offering of shares was adjusted to not less than 8.46 yuan per share from the previous period of not less than 12.99 yuan per share, and the number of issuance was adjusted from the previous 38,494,900 shares to 59,191,600 shares. The party is the actual controller of the company, Pan Yejiang, with a subscription amount of 320 million yuan and a subscription amount of 37.82 million shares; Zhuhai Huachuang Investment, the subscription amount is 100 million yuan, and the subscription amount is 11.82 million shares; Wu Yimin, the subscription amount is 30.694 million yuan, and the subscription amount is 3.63 million. Chen Kunliang, subscription amount of 30.769 million yuan, subscription amount of 3.63 million shares; Yu Yi, subscription amount of 18.4615 million yuan, subscription amount of 2.18 million shares, total subscription amount of 500 million yuan. This application has been submitted to the CSRC for review. People believe that Vantage will re-admit the plan at this time, on the one hand, it will allow major shareholders to enter the market at low prices, and at the same time, it can also stabilize the military and enhance market confidence. 'Before, the beauty set The group threw out a 4 billion stock repurchase plan, which stabilized the stockholders' sentiment very well. Compared with the beauty of 'the rich and the rich', Vantage could not choose to buy back. Because the raised funds can guarantee the total flow into the Vantage shares, if taken In the secondary market repurchase, some people will untie the withdrawal. 'He also mentioned, 'At present, the Pan-type group holding the control of Vantage is relatively low. By increasing at the low level, Pan Yejiang’s shareholding ratio will exceed 18 %, the holding proportion of the Pan-style family will exceed 27%, and its control over the company will be further consolidated, which can be described as one stone and two birds.

The encounter of the "black swan" by Vantage's stock price is probably an inevitable accident.

First of all, under the influence of the strict control policy of real estate, the overall growth trend of the kitchen appliance industry in 2018 slowed down, and there was a rare negative growth in the first half of the year. Shi Ting, manager of the kitchen market of Zhongyikang, believes that the new demand is still the kitchen. The main driving force for the growth of the electricity industry, the sales growth ratio of stock replacement and incremental market is probably at 37, which also makes the kitchen electricity market dependent on the sales of new homes. The real estate post-cycle characteristics are obvious. The above stock analysts Also added, 'Under the shadow of the Sino-US trade war, not only the stock market has risk aversion, but also consumer sentiment has emerged. People’s purchasing decisions have begun to delay backwards, in the mid-to-high end FMCG and large household items. In terms of purchase, it is reflected in the so-called 'lipstick effect'. This trend naturally spreads in the kitchen appliance industry. In addition to the traditional smoke stoves in the decline, dishwashers, steaming ovens, etc. are growing rapidly. The emerging categories, the sharp increase in the first half of this year is an example. The overall market for kitchen appliances has appeared 'falling cold'.

Secondly, the number of new players in the kitchen appliance brand has increased sharply, and the competitive pressure in the industry has further intensified. Before 2016, the Chinese kitchen appliance industry basically established Fangtai, the boss as the head brand, and Vantage later came up with the anti-super-sportsman's 'Fang Laohua' pattern. However, with the weakening of profits of other household appliances, the high profit margin of kitchen appliances has caused many parties. With the advantages of brand and resources, the two integrated enterprises of Haier have accelerated the layout of kitchen appliances, and they are not only trying to seize professional kitchens in the low-end and mid-range. The share of electric companies, and through the introduction of AEG, GE and other foreign high-end brands, from the top to challenge, formed a situation of encirclement. In addition to the two 'big Mac', Wanhe, Wanjiale, Xiaomi, Hisense, Skyworth, etc. Cross-border in different fields. At AWE in March, Hisense exhibited the first series of kitchen appliances, and later announced the acquisition of Gorenji, the Slovenian kitchen appliance brand. The mind was clear; the same is the brand of the black-power brand. Recently announced the entry into the kitchen appliance field, the establishment of Shenzhen Skyworth Intelligent Kitchen Appliance Co., Ltd., and shouted the export number, to cover 2,000 terminals within two years, to achieve listing five years later. Outside of these companies, other brands such as Jiuyang, Supor, Four Seasons Muge, Ande Kitchen and so on have flocked to eat cakes. 'Increased brand competition, on the one hand, the kitchen built for 'Fang Laohua' The benign price pattern of the electricity market constitutes an impact, and it also pushes up the channel inventory. In order to sell the products, grab the share, and the marketing efforts are not increased.

Third, with the transformation of Vantage's business strategy, the shock wave of channel change will come sooner or later, just a slow transition or a fierce change.

According to the internal disclosure of Vantage, starting from 2016, in order to improve the brand image and the continuous growth of sales, the company's management and control of dealers is strengthening. In 2017, Vantage channel adjustment entered the peak period, first of all, to achieve uniform shipping prices; The assessment of dealers has changed from a single indicator of picking up in the past to a comprehensive consideration of KA entering the store, the number of outlets, market share, internal organizational structure and other aspects. 'Chop the store to increase the store', encourage dealers to build large Flagship store, brand pavilion, expand store area. '2017-2018, Vantage allocated 330 million yuan for the terminal store renovation plan, the number of stores over 200 square meters in the future is expected to reach 30%. Terminal image transformation will help increase consumer appeal In the process, Vantage gradually eliminated dealers who could not keep up with the company's strategic transformation. It is reported that as of March 2018, the number of its first-tier dealers has decreased from 160 to 120. At the same time, Vantage also launched a new monitoring system to detect terminal sales inventory, 'cancellation of direct supply dealers, can make our channels more flat, closer to the sales terminal On the other hand, Vantage has strengthened its relationship with dealers by increasing the dealer's account period, increasing the credit line, and binding the rights and interests. One of the targets for this increase is Zhuhai Huachuang Investment. For example, it is the core distributor bound by Vantage. 'By further binding with the interests of listed companies through the equity level, it can guarantee that the company's strategic decision-making can be effectively implemented at the dealer level, and it also helps the overall strength of the channel to improve and guarantee the Vantage. Long-term development. '

'I think that Vantage's marketing of the World Cup may not directly affect the dealer's loss of association. As stated by Vantage, the 'court seizure' is the Emperor of Vantage because the dealer's personal turnover is not working, to save the accounts receivable, to the court initiative The application for the stipulation of the stipulation is an asset preservation measure. But before making this decision, whether the market should be informed, after all, is the second largest dealer of Vantage, and coincides with the World Cup period, everyone is particularly sensitive to market reactions; Second, dealers After the incident, Vantage's response was slow, whether it was the release of the relevant clarification announcement, the 'payment is not shipped' by the consumer, or the stock price's fall, there is no corresponding solution, the stress response is not sensitive. At the same time, Vantage announced that during the World Cup, the total amount of the 'winning package' was about 79 million yuan, of which the Vantage headquarters was responsible for 29 million yuan, and the dealers at all levels were responsible for the production cost and marketing cost of 50 million yuan. I am very curious. Whether the 50 million yuan dealer's pure investment, Vantage will introduce corresponding compensation measures; In addition, if there is a refund, Vantage has corresponding The cost budget will affect the current profit performance, as well as the 2018 performance forecast. ' The stock analyst said.

As for the future trend of Vantage, the person believes that 'the long-term optimism is still good. On the one hand, the fundamentals of the growth of the kitchen appliance industry are still there, the penetration rate of household kitchen appliances in China is still low, and the release of demand is only a matter of time; on the other hand, The professional barriers built by the Vantage brand are still there, especially in the kitchen and household appliances, consumers are still more aware of the brand; at the same time, kitchen appliances are still high-margin products, taking the steamer as an example, For products with a production cost of more than 1,000 yuan, the market price may be 6000-8000 yuan.

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