China Agricultural Machinery Circulation Association released the China Agricultural Machinery Market Prosperity Index for June 2018, which was 25.5%, down 16.6 percentage points from the previous month and up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year. From the ring comparison, all the managers in the first-level index showed a decline. Trends, in which the sales ability index fell the most, at 27.7 percentage points. From the same period of last year, the sales capacity index, benefit index and agricultural machinery subsidy index of the six first-level indexes showed a downward trend, while the other three indexes showed an upward trend. Currently, 6 The first-level index is located in the recession zone. From this month, the secondary and tertiary index product categories are transferred to field management machinery, livestock machinery, post-harvest processing machinery, planters, rice transplanters, plant protection machines and fertilizer spreaders. Diesel engine. Partial index algorithm has been adjusted.
Special analyst Zhang Huaguang believes that: In June, AMI continued to bottom out, in a deep recession. AMI is faced with multiple negative factors: First, the market is in the off-season, AMI lacks basic support; second, agricultural machinery subsidies are slow, As of the end of May, the subsidies for agricultural machinery in most provinces have not yet started, and the market driving force is obviously insufficient. Third, traditional hotspot markets such as tractors and grain combine harvesters have experienced large-scale landslides. Fourth, the demand for agricultural machinery market is structural. Adjustment, there is an 'empty window period', the market demand space left by the decline of the traditional hot market is not filled by emerging markets. From the analysis of the popularity index and manager confidence index in June, and the traditional off-season in July, AMI is expected to sink. The recession zone. However, after most of the index experienced a sharp decline in three months in April, May and June, the AMI has approached the bottom or has bottomed out in June, which determines that each index may exhibit the following characteristics. : First, the total index may continue to be in a state of deep recession, but a slight rebound from the ring is a high probability event; the majority of the second, first, second and third-level indices will remain at The boom zone, but some indexes may rebound after the bottom of last month, in July; third, individual indices such as the agricultural subsidy index will advance into the boom; finally, the index in the single digit index may touch Bottom rebound, such as the small tractor index.