Japan's latest energy medium and long-term development plan | 'look at'

On July 3, the Japanese government announced the newly formulated '5th Energy Basic Plan', proposing new goals, new paths and new directions for Japan's energy transformation strategy. This is a Japanese energy source for 2030 and 2050. Policy guidelines and action plans for medium and long-term development planning.

According to the Basic Energy Law, the Japanese Energy Basic Plan must be revised once every three years.

The latest plan introduced this time maintains the basic framework of the '4th Energy Basic Plan' formulated in 2014, and has not even changed the power structure optimization target for 2030. That is: renewable energy accounts for 22 to 24%, and nuclear power accounts for 20%. ~ 22%, thermal power accounted for 56%.

The high proportion of nuclear power and thermal power is still the focus of debates and opinions from all walks of life. However, there are still many 'new points of view' in the new plan based on the national agreement on emissions reduction of the Paris Agreement:

The first is the new changes in the guiding ideology of energy policy formulation.

The guiding ideology of Japan's energy policy in long-term practice is the '3E+S' principle, which is based on energy safety (Safety) and puts energy security in the first place to improve economic efficiency. ) To achieve low-cost energy supply, at the same time, achieve coordinated development with the Environment (Environment Suitability), that is, the balance between safety and stability, economy and environmental protection.

The guiding ideology for the formulation of the energy policy proposed a new concept of the upgraded version of '3E+S', giving the new meaning of the '3E+S' principle.

In terms of safety, under the premise of emphasizing safety priorities, we must implement a new energy security concept guaranteed through technological innovation and governance structure changes;

In terms of stability, we will increase the self-sufficiency rate of resources while increasing the self-sufficiency rate of technology to ensure the diversity of energy choices;

In terms of economy, we must consider factors that strengthen the competitiveness of Japanese industries while reducing supply costs;

In terms of environmental protection, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 26% in 2030 compared to 2013, and by 80% by 2050, achieving a new goal of moving from 'low carbonization' to 'decarbonization'.

Among them, the technology self-sufficiency rate is a brand-new concept, which refers to the energy supply level that can be guaranteed by domestic energy consumption and domestic energy technology.

After the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan’s energy self-sufficiency rate fell from 20% in 2010 to 8.3% in 2016, which is one of the countries with the lowest energy self-sufficiency rate in developed countries. The new plan proposes to use energy technology to make up for the lack of resources. Considering energy technology capabilities as energy security, energy supply, decarbonization, and scarce resources to improve industrial competitiveness, no longer stick to the physical energy self-sufficiency rate in the past, but to improve the self-sufficiency rate of energy technology. Complete the goal of national energy independence.

The second is to position renewable energy as the 'main energy' for 2050 for the first time.

Since Japan introduced the renewable energy fixed price acquisition system in July 2012, the installed capacity of renewable energy has increased by 2.7 times, and the proportion of power generation has increased from 10% in 2010 to 15.6% in 2017.

Among them, PV has a spurt growth, accounting for 5.7% of the country's total power generation in 2017, while wind power, geothermal power and biomass power generation account for only 0.6%, 0.2%, and 1.5%, respectively. Hydropower is subject to restrictions on water resources and has long been Sideways status, accounting for 7.6%.

To this end, to change the pattern of photovoltaics, we must relax the policy control of offshore wind power and geothermal power generation, actively promote the expansion of biomass power generation, and achieve balanced and coordinated development of various types of renewable energy.

At present, the cost of renewable energy in Japan is twice as high as that in European countries. This is an important reason for the lag in Japan's renewable energy penetration rate. The total renewable energy tax in 2018 will reach 3.1 trillion yen. The market target for 2030 is estimated to require an additional tax of 3.7-4 trillion yen per year.

Therefore, in order to reduce the cost of renewable energy generation, it is necessary to revise the current fixed-price acquisition system for renewable energy, promote the implementation of the renewable energy bidding system and the leader system, gradually eliminate the renewable energy subsidies, and achieve renewable energy economic self-reliance to mitigate National heavy-duty renewable energy surcharges.

In order to prevent the occurrence of abandoned light and abandon the wind, and expand the consumption of renewable energy, it is necessary to expand the capacity of the power grid, improve the peaking and frequency modulation capability of the power grid, and solve the problem of 'slow, difficult, expensive' of renewable energy connection and grid connection. Combined technologies such as renewable energy and storage batteries, as well as virtual power plants (VPP), reverse flow control technology (V2G), and development and application of electrical gas conversion technology (P2G). Deepen the reform of power and energy systems, and create a new green power trading market.

The third is to continue to develop nuclear power, and for the first time, it is clear for the first time to reduce the inventory of plutonium.

In view of the strong domestic anti-nuclear public opinion pressure after the Fukushima accident, the government's nuclear power policy still adopts an ambiguous attitude.

On the one hand, it is proposed to reduce the dependence on nuclear power. On the other hand, it is emphasized that nuclear power as an important source-load power source is an important choice for achieving the goal of decarbonization. It will continue to promote nuclear power restart under the premise of safety, so as to achieve zero-emission power by 2030. Accounted for 44% of the target.

At present, there are only 9 nuclear power generating units in Japan. In 2017, nuclear power accounts for only 2.8% of the country's total power generation. To achieve the 2030 target, at least 30 nuclear power units must be put into operation. According to the service period of 40 years, at most The current regulations extended to 60 years, at that time, the estimated number of units that can be put into operation is only about 20, and the full power generation is only 12%, so it is indispensable to build or replace old units.

The new plan is intended to circumvent this sensitive issue. However, the new plan proposes to develop a hybrid with safety, economy and mobility advantages. Small modular reactor (SMR) will be an important option for future development in Japan.

The plan also proposes a policy to continue to advance the nuclear fuel cycle technology route.

By the end of 2016, Japan's spent fuel inventory was 18,000 tons, and the stock of spent fuel separation was as high as 47 tons, which could produce 6,000 nuclear warheads, causing concern in the United States and the international community.

The new plan indicates that measures should be taken to reduce the inventory of plutonium. However, in the current stagnation of thermal power generation, there is still no clear roadmap for how to eliminate plutonium inventories, so the attitude is still rather embarrassing.

The fourth is to propose the development of clean and efficient thermal power by eliminating backward low-efficiency thermal power generation technology and equipment for the first time.

Thermal power is positioned at the 'main power source for the transition period of energy transformation and decarbonization target', and the average power generation efficiency requirement will reach 44.3% by 2030.

In 2017, thermal power accounted for 81.6%, of which coal-fired power generation was 30.4%, gas-fired power generation was 38.7%, and fuel-fired power generation was 4.1%. The target for 2030 will be reduced to 26%, 27% and 3% respectively.

As a base-load power source, coal-fired power generation has the advantages of low price and stable supply. It is also an important backup power source for expanding the utilization of renewable energy. However, due to its serious emissions and pollution, it must be eliminated below the latest ultra-supercritical (USC) level. Lack of inefficient thermal power technology equipment, promote the application of integrated gasification combined cycle power generation system (IGCC), coal gasification fuel cell system (IGFC) and other clean and efficient new generation power generation technology, accelerate carbon capture, utilization and storage technology (CCUS) Development.

Natural gas has high energy efficiency, low emissions and low supply risk. It is an important lumbar load source. Developing high-efficiency gas-fired power generation will be an important direction for Japan's future thermal power transformation, with emphasis on promoting the integration of ultra-high temperature gas turbine combined power generation (GTCC) and gas turbine fuel cells. (GTFC) and cogeneration technology to accelerate the distribution of distributed energy, thereby promoting the use and popularization of natural gas in the industrial sector.

Fuel power generation is the peak-load power source. Oil is mainly used for emergency power generation. It is used more in the transportation and chemical industries, but it accounts for 40% of the primary energy supply structure.

Based on the fact that fossil fuels are almost entirely dependent on imports, Japan should not only try to diversify procurement in resource-supplying countries, but also increase the proportion of independent development of upstream resources, build a flexible and transparent international market, and participate in Asian energy value chains to ensure resource supply.

The upstream oil and gas development ratio will increase from 27% in 2016 to 40% in 2030, and the upstream coal development ratio will remain at around 61% in 2016. At the same time, the exploration of offshore oil and gas resources will be strengthened to accelerate the commercial development of combustible ice.

The fifth is to use energy conservation and hydrogen energy as important targets for climate change policies.

Energy conservation and emission reduction must achieve the dual control goal, that is, by 2030, the total energy consumption will be reduced by 50.3 million KL, and the annual reduction will be 2.8 million KL. The energy intensity will be reduced by 35% compared with 2012.

The total energy consumption in 2016 has been reduced by 8.8 million KL, with an average annual reduction of 2.2 million KL.

In the construction sector, new public buildings will be built by 2020, and new residential buildings will be subject to the “zero-energy building” legal standard by 2030, while expanding the scope of the front-runner system.

Energy-efficiency products such as household appliances, lighting equipment, and building materials have been greatly improved by the front-runner system. For example, the energy efficiency of air conditioners, color TVs and refrigerators has increased by 28%, 71% and 252% respectively compared with 2001.

In the field of transportation, the sales target of new energy vehicles will reach 50%-70% of the new car market by 2030, and the practical application of the automatic driving technology system will be vigorously promoted.

In the industrial sector, Japan's energy conservation level has been at the forefront of the world after the oil crisis. In 2012, the energy intensity decreased by 34% compared with 2005. However, the energy efficiency level has not changed much in recent years.

Therefore, the new plan proposes to use artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, big data and automatic response technology for power demand, and break through the bottleneck of energy-saving path through the horizontal and vertical linkage of the demand side of the industry chain and the integration of machinery and equipment to achieve annual energy saving. 1% target.

On the other hand, Japan uses hydrogen as a trump card for climate change and energy security.

Hydrogen preparation can be taken from a variety of primary energy sources, and has the advantages of being able to store and transport. Therefore, the basic strategic goal of building hydrogen energy society is formulated, and the international preparation, storage, transportation and utilization are proposed. Industry chain, actively promote hydrogen fuel power generation, expand fuel cell and its automotive market, plans to popularize 5.3 million domestic fuel cells by 2030, and popularize 800,000 fuel cell vehicles. But still face technology, cost, system and infrastructure. The challenge of the problem.

The sixth is the newly added energy scenario for 2050.

Based on the Paris Agreement, Japan proposed a new energy transformation goal from 'low carbonization' to 'decarbonization' by 2050. The key to achieving this goal lies in subversive technological innovation.

Japan reserves the most advanced energy technology assets in the fields of hydrogen energy and fuel cells, energy storage, nuclear power, offshore wind power, geothermal energy, thermal power technology, etc., and has the potential to lead the world in decarbonization technology. However, due to the possibility of energy technology development And uncertainties, as well as the uncertainty of changes in the world's energy situation, the long-term outlook for energy in 2050 will become difficult to predict accurately.

Therefore, Japan's long-term energy scenario does not follow the traditional model prediction paradigm. It is no longer a linear goal plan, but a diversified situational design; instead of focusing on the economics of a single energy system, it focuses on electricity. , heat, gas and network pipelines integrate the optimization model of complementary energy systems; the implementation path no longer emphasizes the single action roadmap within each sub-energy system, but more focuses on energy policy, energy diplomacy, energy industry chain and infrastructure reconstruction, The “Total War” of the four-in-one interaction of energy finance.

Planning for 2030 is a concrete and predictable course of action, including expanding renewable energy, reducing dependence on nuclear power, reducing the share of thermal power, and strengthening basic policies for energy transformation such as energy conservation and energy efficiency technologies. For the 2050 outlook, More is the goal, direction and vision of energy transformation. Due to the volatility, complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity of future scenarios, the plan focuses on the basic strategy for responding to changes in the energy competition situation.

After the Paris Agreement came into effect, the global renewable energy market accelerated its popularity with the continuous advancement of technology and the jump in cost.

Nuclear power slowed down due to the surge in costs affected by the Fukushima nuclear accident; coal power has limited development space due to serious emissions pollution; after the shale gas revolution, the price of fossil energy market has increased, and geopolitical risks have increased; The energy industry is in full swing. Investment and technology development are mostly concentrated in the fields of energy storage, electric vehicles, distributed energy, smart energy, etc., and new forms and new industries have emerged, creating a huge new market.

To this end, countries have seized the opportunity of energy technology advancement, seeking a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation competition.

Based on the above situation, Japan's latest energy basic plan aims to build a multi-dimensional, diversified and flexible energy supply and demand system, emphasizing the importance of “low carbonization” to “decarbonization” for energy transformation, and actively vying for energy technology. The dominance has highlighted Japan’s ambition to establish 'energy hegemony of energy technology'.

There are also some contradictions in the new plan. For example, the renewable energy development target is set too low, while the proportion of coal-fired thermal power and nuclear power is high, which deviates significantly from the energy transformation strategic track, and with the Japanese population decline and economy. The growth slows down, and the assessment of the effective demand for electricity in Japan is also insufficient.

Nevertheless, it still has great reference and enlightenment for me to formulate medium- and long-term energy development strategies and policy plans.