On July 10th, the Trump administration once again waved the tariff 'big stick', and proposed to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the United States worth 200 billion US dollars, and announced the target product list.
According to a statement issued by the US Trade Representative Office on Tuesday, this round of $200 billion in commodity tax increases may take effect after the public consultation on August 30.
China National Grid found through combing that the list of target products in this round mainly includes refrigerators, air conditioners, freezers, dryers, electrical storage radiators, electrical space heaters, air conditioners (no refrigeration). ), Vacuum Cleaner, Kitchen Waste Disposer, Electric Fryer, Electric Clipper, Electric Appliance Parts, Electric Appliance Parts, Electric Shaver and Clipper Parts, Dishwasher Parts, One-Way AC Motor, Vacuum Cleaner Parts.
The amount of restricted products accounts for a small proportion of China's total exports of home appliances
In fact, as early as January 22 this year, the United States announced a three-year global safeguard for imported large washing machines. In the first year, it imposed a 20% tariff on the first 1.2 million imported large washing machines, with tax rates in the second and third. The annual decline is 18% and 16%; for imported washing machines exceeding this amount, the 50% tariff is imposed in the first year, and the tax rate is reduced to 45% and 40% in the second and third years.
On April 3, the Office of the US Trade Representative announced a list of products to be added to the US$5 billion worth of Chinese exports to the US for a 25% tariff.
On June 15, the US government announced that it would impose a 25% import tariff on US$50 billion of goods originating in China based on the unilateral findings of the 301 investigation, including a tariff of approximately US$34 billion on US exports to the US. Implemented on the 6th of the month, the additional tariff measures for the remaining approximately $16 billion in goods will be further sought for public opinion.
China National Grid understands that the above-mentioned household appliances worth about 34 billion US dollars include household appliances including gas water heaters, water storage electric water heaters, water purifiers, air purifiers, dishwashers, juicers, etc. Products and compressors and other accessories.
Based on a rough estimate of the list of three tariff-added products, the amount of restricted Chinese household electrical appliances exported to the United States accounts for about 20% of the global exports of restricted goods, accounting for about 13% of China's total global exports of home appliances.
Household appliances traders pointed out that the United States will impose tariffs on Chinese household appliances, which will directly lead to a sharp decline in China's home appliance exports. The replacement capacity will not be realized in the short term, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the purchase cost of US consumers due to imbalances in market supply and demand. The dependence of home appliances is relatively high. At the same time as tariffs are imposed, the Trump administration needs to study feasible measures to find alternative capacity and reduce product costs. Otherwise, it will affect the quality of life of Americans.
For China's home appliance industry, in addition to the advantages of complete industrial chain, mature enterprise development management, and proportion of labor costs, with the rapid growth of the scale of exports of household appliances to ASEAN countries, BRICS countries and countries along the Belt and Road, The restrictions on US exports will not have much impact on China's home appliance industry.
Home appliance listed companies have responded to the impact of trade friction
Affected by trade friction, China's stock market has fallen sharply since 2018, and the impact of trade friction on listed companies has become a major theme of investor interaction.
Since the Trump administration announced the imposition of tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States, Midea Group, Little Swan, Qingdao Haier, TCL Group, Shenzhen Konka A, Wanhe Electric and other home appliance listed companies have responded on the investor interaction platform: The share of exports to the United States is small, and Sino-US trade friction has limited impact on production and operation.
Among them, Aucma said that the United States is not a market for its export products. It only exports a small amount of refrigeration products to the area, which accounts for a small amount and has limited impact on its export business.
According to Feike Electric, its overseas revenue accounted for less than 1% of total revenue, and all cooperation with customers is normal.
During trade friction, TCL Group repeatedly announced the impact of trade friction on enterprises and preventive measures.
On the evening of July 11, TCL Group issued a notice saying: According to the list of tariffs to be imposed by the United States, the company's TV sets, smartphones, audio products, etc., which are exported to the United States, are not listed in the list. The LCD panel produced by the company is ice-washed. Products have not been exported to the United States. Currently, this tariff list has no impact on the company's products and business units.
Previously, TCL Group has indicated plans to increase the capacity of its plants in the United States and take other measures to reduce its impact on its US operations. In the first quarter of this year, TCL's overall business growth in the United States has grown steadily.
The industry believes that the overseas layout of China's leading household appliances, whether it is direct investment or construction or mergers and acquisitions, is conducive to avoid trade friction through capacity expansion, capacity transfer, product structure upgrades and other measures.
Small appliances such as vacuum cleaners or the first
During the Sino-US trade friction, Hu Xiaohong, senior consultant of the Information Consultation Department of China Household Electrical Appliances Association, told China National Grid that small household appliances such as vacuum cleaners and electric baking appliances are second to none in terms of the proportion of exports to the US and the growth rate of exports.
In the list of 200 billion US dollars worth of goods published by the Trump government on Tuesday, vacuum cleaner products are listed. Therefore, the proposed tariff increase measures will have a greater impact on the export of Chinese vacuum cleaner products.
In fact, China's small household electrical appliances have a large proportion of exports to the US, a large part of which is due to the concentration of production capacity in China, and the concentration of production capacity is related to the properties of small household electrical appliances.
In the home appliance industry, large household appliances are called regional products. Due to the volume of products, transportation distance has a greater impact on costs, so enterprises generally follow the principle of building factories nearby to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Small household appliances due to small size, damage rate The lower factors are called smooth products. Given the obvious cost advantages of China, the overseas enthusiasm of small household appliances companies is relatively low.
Previously, analysts generally believe that home appliances are not in the category of "Made in China 2025", so it is unlikely that large-scale tariffs will be imposed. But now, at least in the eyes of the Trump administration, China's home appliance industry is indeed a bit 'Zha eyes'.
Since joining the WTO, China's household appliance exports have continued to rise in the global share, and the resulting trade surplus is very conspicuous. Therefore, foreign trade friction may become a 'normal'. Chinese home appliance companies should improve their global industrial chain and brand layout. Long-term vision makes reasonable use of various ways to avoid the risk of trade friction.