Although in May and June this year, domestic TV panel prices have fallen to near the historical lows of 2016, however, since July, the price of TV panels has begun to rebound.
After about a year of decline, TV panel prices rebounded in July. However, Li Yaqin, general manager of Qunzhi Consulting, told the First Financial Reporter on July 10 that the price rebound of TV panels is phased, and there are two TV panel industries. Year 'Bitter Day'.
TV panel prices rebound
Although in May and June this year, domestic TV panel prices have fallen to near the historical lows of 2016, however, since July, the price of TV panels has begun to rebound.
For this round of TV panel price increases, Li Yaqin believes that there are three main reasons: First, the product structure adjustment of the panel factory, such as BOE to reduce the output of small and medium-sized TV panels such as 32 inches, while adding 55-inch, 65-inch and above large-size TV panels The second is that the panel factory controls the rate of utilization (capacity utilization rate) rhythmically; the third is the traditional peak season in the third quarter of each year, the demand increases, and the inventory is cleaned up.
According to the research report of Avi Cloud (AVC), it is expected that the price of 32, 40-inch TV panels will increase slightly in July 2018; 43, the price of 55-inch panels will stop falling; 49, 50-inch panel prices will remain stable; The price of the 65-inch panel will drop by $5.
Another Sigmaintell pointed out that in the third quarter, entering the global market for stocking season, the demand for panel stocks of the whole machine manufacturers increased month-on-month. At the same time, panel manufacturers actively adjusted the size structure to drive the supply and demand of LCD TV panels around the world. The monthly small-size panel price rebounded slightly, and the large-size panel price stopped falling.
Ovid Cloud's analysts further explained that the reason for the recent price increase of TV panels is mainly due to some changes in the relationship between supply and demand. In the third quarter, the global TV manufacturers' stocks entered the peak season and were also large-sized. Under the trend, the panel factory digested the production capacity by adjusting the product size structure, resulting in tight supply of small-size TV panels. In addition, the previous price has fallen below the cost line, and the high-level inventory has been basically cleaned up. Therefore, the TV small-size panel is the first to shout. Small-size supply After tightening, the demand part is transferred to the medium and large size segments, and the demand in the peak season is superimposed, so that the supply and demand of the size segment stabilizes, and the price begins to fall. With the peak of stocking in August and September, all sizes have the opportunity to rise in price.
Li Yuhui, a senior analyst of Qunzhi Consulting's TV Industry Chain Research Department, also believes that the price fluctuation of the TV panel is a phased price increase. First, the panel price is close to the panel factory's cash cost, and the panel factory has no intention to lower the price. Secondly, three In the quarter, the overseas market is in the peak season, and the demand is growing. Third, the panel factory actively adjusts the product structure and continues to promote large-scale digestion to digest production capacity.
There are still two years of 'hard days'
Li Yaqin expects that the price of this round of TV panel will rebound in the third quarter. Because there are many new high-generation LCD panel production lines to be put into production in the second half of this year, there will be two years in the TV panel industry. ' .
In her view, if we continue to increase investment irrationally, the panel industry may lose money and the outside world will not easily add new investment. The new market demand will fully absorb the new panel production capacity, and the panel industry will only Restore 'good days'.
'We believe that as Chinese panel makers actively expand the production capacity of high-generation LCD panels, the supply and demand of panels will remain excessive in the next few years.' Li Yuhui said. According to the current announced plan, by the end of 2019, the high-generation panel completed in mainland China will be completed. The production line (more than 8.5 generations) will reach 15.
In the view of 卞铮, the market trend of follow-up TV panel prices, it is also necessary to look at the sales of North America 'Black Friday' and China 'Double 11' in the fourth quarter of this year, if the global market demand has not been significantly boosted, with the second half of this year and Next year, the new production line will not be disconnected, and the test of the panel industry will only grow bigger and bigger in the future. Because the global color TV market has basically entered the stock market, it is more difficult to consume the increasing capacity due to the large size of the TV market. Commercial display, new applications showing the continued maturity and expansion of the direction, will likely become a new opportunity for the panel industry.
Then, for the fluctuation of the panel price, what do the color TV manufacturers think?
Chang Dong, chairman and president of Konka Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., said that the profit rate of color TV companies in 2017 is lower, and the price increase of TV panels is a more important reason. 'The change of supply chain cycle makes the difficulty of trading in downstream enterprises more difficult. ' TV panel price After falling for nearly a year, it will inevitably lead to price wars. In the third quarter of this year, TV panel prices stabilized, and small and medium-sized sizes even rebounded. However, in the second half of the year, next year, high-generation lines will be put into production, and China's panel supply will remain loose.
When the First Financial Reporter interviewed Shenzhen Huaxing Optoelectronics Headquarters, Huaxing Optoelectronics CFO Hu Lihua revealed that the 11th generation line project of Huaxing Optoelectronics Shenzhen will be lighted in December 2018 and mass production in March 2019; at the same time, Huaxing Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. In Shenzhen, the second 11th generation line will be launched, and the project is scheduled to start in November 2018. The products will be lighted in December 2020 and mass production in March 2021. The chairman of the TCL Group of Huaxing Photonics Co., Ltd. Li Dongsheng said that in the development of consumer electronics At the same time of business, TCL will actively develop 2B commercial business.
The BOE Hefei 10.5 generation line was mass-produced in March this year, and is also building a second 10.5-generation line in Wuhan. In order to digest huge production capacity, BOE is not only in the five traditional display fields of TV, monitor, laptop, tablet and mobile phone. , has also begun to expand and expand in commercial display, automotive display and other innovative application display.