The heat of life is difficult to solve the pressure of supply and demand of polypropylene. The current market for polypropylene is not only the pressure on supply and demand structure, but also the competitive pressure brought about by the difference in raw material costs.
First, comparative analysis of production capacity in recent years
The comparative analysis of PP capacity data in 2013-2018 found that the capacity growth rate slowed down after 2016, among which 2014-2016 is the fastest time period for capacity growth, and the capacity increased by 6.95 million tons in 2014-2016. 22.33 million tons, reaching the peak production capacity in recent years. Due to the slowdown in domestic demand, the capacity expansion rate has slowed down. Later, domestic expansion capacity is mostly concentrated on PDH devices. Due to the low cost of this series of devices, it is favored by most companies.
Second, the inventory data shows that there is no pressure on the two oils.
According to the comparative analysis of inventory data, the inventory has been declining continuously since May, and the drawing price of the enterprise has fluctuated. The two oil inventory data are continuously low, the two oils have no inventory pressure, the ex-factory price of the enterprise continues to rise and boost, and the market price continues to push up. Recently, the market is under pressure to pressure the transaction, but there is no significant downward pressure.
Third, the rise and fall of futures closely affects the spot trend
The spot price difference is closely combined. According to the spot supply and demand fundamentals, the futures trend is affected. However, the current situation is that the futures are slightly more affected by the funds, while the spot fundamentals are relatively weak. The recent spot price adhesion status reflects the impact of futures on the market. strengthen.
Fourth, how short-term supply and demand pressures ease
The current market for polypropylene is not only the pressure on the structure of supply and demand, but also the competitive pressure brought about by the difference in raw material costs. The competitive pressure in the middle trade links has escalated. Although the level of domestic R&D has been continuously improved in recent years, the domestic downstream level has developed. There are still layers of unevenness. The low-end and downstream development is slow, the imbalance between supply and demand is highlighted, and the high-end downstream development is fast, but there is still a gap in the supply of high-end special materials in China. Domestic downstream enterprises still have certain dependence on imported high-end materials.