At the end of the rainy season, Typhoon 'Maria' came to report again. In late June, East China, the rainy season in South China continued, and Chengdu, July 10-11, and Beijing suffered heavy rains. This is the weather of the 2018 cold air conditioning season. Under the baptism of rainwater everywhere, the peak season market has been 'cooled'. In contrast, the air-conditioner market was blown out in the same period last year, and the stock was stopped. This year, we will send a 'cool cool' to the peak season market.
The cold season is cold, the channel is huge inventory
How the air-conditioning market in the peak season is largely determined by the weather conditions, the weather has become a barometer of the air-conditioning industry, but this year's peak season market has been silent after a wave of small climax in early June.
A dealer in Yanjiao, Beijing, said very helplessly: 'It’s raining recently. I haven’t digested the goods in the channel yet, and there are still many tasks not completed.” The dealers in Langfang, Hebei also bluntly said: Weather. ' A small brand domestic sales person recalled: 'The whole industry was stocking at the beginning of March-June, and did not feel the market is weak. By mid-June, the terminal retail power was insufficient, and it was obvious that the market was deserted. '
In 2017, the air-conditioning market volume is largely based on the outbreak of the peak season, and even the overdraft future demand. In 2018, under the influence of multiple factors such as real estate purchase restriction policy and raw material price, the industry entered the shift period in 2018.
The biggest sporadic factor in the domestic air-conditioning market in each year is the temperature change during the peak season. In the short-term, the market demand in 2018 does not have the favorable conditions for explosive growth in the short-term, and the related industries represented by real estate are equally difficult to provide air-conditioning. The product provides sufficient room for growth, and the weather becomes a crucial factor in determining the final direction of the market. As of mid-July, the most immediate consequence of the tepid high season market is the huge inventory. Industry figures: Domestic air conditioning stocks have exceeded 40 million units.
Oversupply, high inventory, or price war
'The next 30 days is very critical' Changhuai, the general manager of Changhong Air Conditioning Domestic Marketing Company, has made such an evaluation in the face of the current industry situation. The dealer in Beijing Yanjiao also expressed concern: 'The distributors have a large inventory, the next year It’s very troublesome to open the market. '
Ren Huakai also pointed out: 'If the channel inventory of the entire air-conditioning industry is serious, I am worried that there will be a price war in the market in the future. 'The above-mentioned small and medium-sized brand domestic sales person also pointed out: 'This year, there is a strange phenomenon in the air-conditioning market, low price The product goes much, and once the price is slightly increased, the goods will not move.
The high stocks have a serious impact on the development of the industry in the short term, and the confidence of the channel dealers has been hit. If this stock cannot be effectively digested in the middle and late July, it will continue to affect the next year, which will directly affect the 2019 year. Opening. A large amount of funds are deposited on the product, which seriously hinders the circulation of resources. The large amount of work of the manufacturers is concentrated on the digestion of the inventory products, forcing the product price system to change again. High inventory itself is the catalyst for the price war.
In fact, in the past two months, the air-conditioning price system, which has been the main melody of price increases, has already loosened. Beijing Yanjiao dealers have already felt the recent price changes: 'A second-line brand has cut prices for individual models since May. 618 e-commerce price cuts, our dealers also followed the price adjustment. Although the first-line brand did not directly cut prices, but the recent activities wave after wave, the incentives increased. 'Online platform, Tmall, Jingdong air conditioning shocked The price is very eye-catching, about a thousand yuan of air conditioning is no longer a few. And offline Suning July double-line air conditioning sales, double-line tens of thousands of people grab air conditioning, super brand group and other activities around the air conditioning, Gome online and offline full channel synchronization Launched the 'Home Appliances Alliance to gather the first battle' activity, the activities of thousands of thousands of activities are super-large.
In the last 20 days of 2017, the huge inventory is undoubtedly the Damocles sword hanging over the air-conditioning industry. On the one hand, the contradiction of oversupply, or the price war in the air-conditioning industry will be triggered again, and the other is still high raw materials. Price cost.
From the upstream of the industrial chain, copper, plastics and other raw materials accounted for 90% of the cost structure of home appliance companies, prices are rising, of which copper index rose by as much as 30.9%, labor costs, logistics costs, storage costs, etc. In the fast-growing home appliance industry, the inventory pressure once caused the price war to be worse. Especially in the early 2018, driven by the hot market industry in the previous year, many new brands joined the air-conditioning army. The pressure on the survival of this part of the brand is particularly high. The above-mentioned head of the domestic sales of small brands said: 'The opening of the new year will be started after the cost of accounting, and the opening time may be postponed.'
The cost of raw materials is increasing, the inventory pressure is big, and the price should be adjusted. How to adjust? It is a dilemma in front of the air-conditioners. There are 20 days in 2018, and I believe that the air-conditioners in the entire air-conditioning industry have the same mood as the author. 'Every day is looking forward to the heat'.
