Chen Qi: Business model of the semiconductor industry

Dongfang Wealth Network invited Chen Qi, the semiconductor industry investment manager of Zhejiang Pinley Equity Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd., to visit the Fortune Watch column. He introduced the business model in the semiconductor industry on the show.

The following is a partial interview:

Moderator: I can find out that China has a lot of positive elements. Next, there is another point. Some people mentioned that Huawei's Kirin chip is produced by TSMC. Why don't you produce it yourself? This is very boring, you explain What do you think is the situation?

Chen Qi: This is a business model problem in our industrial chain. There are two business models in the industrial chain. The first is the IDM model, which is its own design, self-manufacturing, and independent. It is a one-stop service, and customers give me the demand. I finally handed the chip to you, the first, IDM mode.

The second design plus wafer foundry mode. Designed by companies such as Huawei Hisilicon, foundry, TSMC, SMIC, Huahong Hongli.

Last time I said that a 12-inch wafer factory is worth 30 billion yuan and 50 billion yuan. Even if Huawei does not have the ability to eat such a large amount of investment, even if it is to eat such a bulk investment, Not necessarily finding so many people to do for you, this technical barrier is very high.

So the wafer factory model, since the emergence of TSMC in 1987, this model has slowly emerged, forming a social division of labor, doing what you are good at. Huawei Hisilicon is doing a good job of designing, looking for TSMC to OEM, TSMC Responsible for the production of Huawei HiSilicon's design drawings, produced according to the requirements, and then handed over to Changjiang Electronics Technology, Huatian Technology, the downstream testing and testing enterprises of Sun Moonlight, finished, sealed and tested, and returned to Huawei Sea after the test. Thinking, Huawei's Hess will use this thing either in its network equipment or in its mobile phone. It is such an industrial chain process.

These are two business models, one called IDM mode, one called IC design plus foundry mode. IDM mode, for example, Hangzhou Silan Micro, Intel, the typical representative of mainland China is Silan, Lan Wei has a five-inch line, a six-inch line, and an eight-inch line. In Fujian, two more were created. Last time, one was a six-inch line of SiC, and a 12-inch MEMS was designed by itself. .

Moderator: Yes.

Chen Qi: The IC design and foundry model is Huawei Haisi and TSMC. In fact, TSMC is not only for Huawei's foundry, Apple, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, AMD, are looking for TSMC OEM. So you don't have to ask Why does Huawei not produce itself? Because each company does what it is good at. This business model exists. Don't worry if TSMC will sell Huawei one day? Impossible, TSMC's market value is four times that of Huawei. Profits and revenues are several times more than it is. It is impossible to reveal the secrets of the client. If TSMC does this, it is not necessary, there is no TSMC in the world. I dare say this, no one will find you for work in the future, then the TSMC will be finished. .

Moderator: Let's talk about it, we can't move tens of billions of wafer fabs. Where did the money go? Let me introduce, how do you spend so much money?

Chen Qi: Many friends have asked me this question.

Moderator: Yes, three or five hundred million is still on, now it is three or five billion yuan.

Chen Qi: Don't say one, the cost of the two aircraft carriers, where did the money go? We used to see SMIC, Hua Hong Hongli, and Wuhan Yangtze River storage in May, there is a news. Brushing, is just said that Asma's lithography machine. How much is the EUV NXE 3400B model bought by SMIC? S$120 million, SMIC's profit last year was more than 120 million, one year's profit It is very expensive to buy a machine. What kind of machine is so expensive? More than 800 million yuan, you can buy Boeing aircraft. What equipment is so expensive? No way. The entire semiconductor equipment, material technology, all kinds of challenges to human limits. Can say so Think about it, how wide is the width of the transistor on our hairline? Arrange from 5,000 to 8,000 or so, the width of one hair.

Moderator: I can't imagine.

Chen Qi: Now the width of SMIC's transistor is about 14 nanometers. It has already been made, 14 nanometers. The diameter of a virus cell is about 10 nanometers. The atom is 0.1 nanometer, 14 nanometers, which is the width of more than 100 atoms. Its equipment, this thing is made to the equipment and materials. 'Challenge the human limit', this sentence is not exaggerated.

Moderator: So expensive.

Chen Qi: So, like the machine of Asma, the $120 million machine, there are some news in it, you can go and see. Inside the lithography machine, it is a very complicated optical imaging system, the light shines from above, shines On the silicon wafer, the silicon wafer is coated with photoresist, and the mask is covered with light. The light is blocked, and there is a shadow on the top. The blocked place is fine, there is no blocking place, and the photoresist is illuminated. , will be soft, take a rush of water, after washing with a light stripping solution, some of this pattern will be left, some will not stay. Then, where it needs to be left, etch it again, Do ion implantation, we call doping. So this lithography machine can determine whether you can do the minimum line width process, 14 (nm) or 28 (nm).

Asma's previous generation of lithography machine 193 nanometer (liquid immersion) lithography machine can achieve 28 (nm), up to 14, 28 is relatively stable, 14 is more difficult. EUV is to solve below 14 nanometers The minimum linewidth of the CPU, 10 nanometers, 7 nanometers, 5 nanometers, 3 nanometers, 3 nanometers is the ultimate limit, the ultimate limit of Moore's Law, now IBM is already developing, China is now catching up. A GAA developed by IBM Technology, gate-all-around, I don't know anything, I know that stuff is very powerful. Just said, this inside is so complicated, to be so small, you think about it, the optical reflection inside To achieve unprecedented error-free. We have an analogy, there is a lens inside, this smoothness, for example, if the area of ​​this lens is so large, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui, the highest protrusion will not exceed one centimeter. How much of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai add up, we don't say much, the highest protrusion is less than one centimeter. This processing precision, this is the exclusive supply of German Zeiss, there is no second company in the world to do this thing.

Moderator: Let's ask again, in the manufacturer of this equipment, are we 0 or 1?

Chen Qi: There is Shangwei. Everyone in China knows that there is Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd., which can do 90nm. But to be honest, there is no wafer factory used. I have said that this equipment is very difficult to do. I have it. But not very good, the effect is not very good. As far as I know, the eight-inch factory has never purchased its equipment. It is indeed.

Moderator: This company is very embarrassing when it comes to producing equipment.

Chen Qi: We are on the micro, the country gives it money every year to support it. The accumulation of technology is not completed in a day or two. Asma, Zeiss, this lens, for decades, is said to polish this lens is an artificial, grandson Three generations of skilled workers, three generations of grandparents and grandchildren are doing this, polishing this shot.

Moderator: To the manual level.

Chen Qi: This thing, what are the three things that Chinese grandparents and grandchildren can do the same thing? When civil servants? When civil servants have. Just kidding. This thing, the accumulation of some foreign technology, we can't catch up in a short time, We can only find a way to draw closer to it in the future.

The lithography machine you just mentioned is only a part. But this is one of the most important components in the entire wafer fab, followed by etching machine, CVD, ion implantation, and thinning, diffusion, oxidation, cleaning. There may be only one lithography machine. Although the unit price is very high, it is only necessary to have one. Generally speaking, one or two wafer factories are dead. This thing is too expensive. The CVD machines behind are also Not cheap, CVD is about 20 million yuan, 50 units, 100 units of such purchases, then it is billions.

Moderator: No wonder these few billions of flowers are gone.

Chen Qi: This is only the three main machines, one is deposition equipment, CVD, etching machine, these two machines are all tens of millions of levels, the purchase is dozens, hundreds of purchases, lithography The machine may be one, the latter project, the amount is larger. Cleaning equipment, polishing, hundreds of hundreds of units to buy. Tokyo Precision One purchase is three, five hundred, this equipment is not cheap, Millions of ones. So, in the whole factory of 30 to 50 billion, 70% or 80% are bought by equipment, 20% are power system, factory construction, land cost, those are Things. Raw materials may only be a small part of the middle. Just telling you, the localization of raw materials is very difficult. Our wafer factory has no power for you, all copying foreign, Samsung, TSMC a complete set of process reproduction Come over. If something goes wrong, this technical person in charge, who can afford this responsibility? If you use Samsung, TSMC's things are not made, this does not blame me, this we slowly adjust.

Moderator: Endogenous motivation is insufficient.

Chen Qi: If you can't make a replacement for domestic materials, who is responsible for this?

Moderator: This is finished.

Chen Qi: The technician said that I am not doing this. So it is difficult to promote even if it is all Chinese. The real equipment manufacturers, if they can get in, give Jianghuawei, Jingrui shares, There is no listing of Anji Microelectronics, it is really a praise, not easy, it is really not easy, many years. As far as I know, Anjiwei has been working in the market for ten years, it also hit It’s really not easy to give a small market. Let’s give them a compliment. Chinese semiconductors can do it. It’s not easy to accumulate. It’s good to break through.

Moderator: In the past ten years, when everyone is not speculating on this hot spot, I don't know what they are doing, and suffering is here.

Chen Qi: Now the media are focusing.

Moderator: After focusing on this, everyone knows that it is so hard here.

Chen Qi: So we are also using the platform of Eastern wealth to fight for the semiconductor front, whether it is the designer or the worker of the wafer fab, or the R&D personnel of the materials and equipment, I really like you. I have seen more, Really everyone is not easy. Money is good, there are many times, you have no sense of accomplishment.

Moderator: Yes.

Chen Qi: When can I make it, I don't know it myself. I can't figure out when I can enter the whitelist of the wafer fab. But once I get in, it's not bad. Because there is another localization. The advantage is that foreign big factories are standard products. BASF, or DuPont, are standard products. You love to use them. I am like this. It will not change according to your recipe. Impossible. But localization has this advantage. What do you think is not good? I will help you change it. There is a little customization in it. Once you can enter the factory, and cooperate with the wafer factory. One step process, the opportunity is coming.

Because Chinese companies are closer to the needs of the local market. After all, there is no obstacle to communication. Foreign experts are very expensive. According to the hour, an hour and a few hundred dollars are counted. I will help you adjust the equipment and help you. Take care of it, sorry, we charge for one hour and two hundred dollars. And this is often not an hour or two to solve the battle. It may take several days, and the money is earned by foreigners.

I saw a lot of domestic equipment, in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, two hours to get, equipment problems, call a phone, drive past, two hours, from Zhejiang to Jiangsu, I will help you look at it. This problem Quickly write down this question, go back and iterate the next generation of products, and develop the next generation of products, this problem must be solved. Localization is like this, especially the equipment, it is so. North China has a local Advantages, although within a short period of time with the application materials, Ke Lei, Colin can not fight, but I am close to the market, good service, can also grab a part of the market, low-end six-inch line, eight-inch line can be made, slow Slow, one day I hit the twelve-inch high-end line.

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