China's electric vehicle development is about to enter its tenth year. As the power battery of the electric car heart, its industrial pattern has appeared in two days.
In 2017, the world's power battery sales ranked fifth, and China's power battery sales third, Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd., its parent company, Jianrui Wooneng (300116.SZ), blew a debt of 2 billion yuan in early April, with a total debt of 221.38. In addition, many small and medium-sized power battery companies have closed down under the pressure of cost. On the other hand, Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as CATL), the world's first power battery sales in 2017, successfully met in early April. , the valuation is as high as 130 billion yuan.
In addition to the internal reshuffle situation, in the competitive landscape of the Japanese and Korean companies in the global market, what is the competitiveness of China's new energy vehicles? Is there an opportunity to achieve overtaking? Recently, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Electric Vehicles 100 Executive Vice President Ouyang Minggao accepted an exclusive interview with Caijing reporter, indicating that China's electric vehicle technology bottom line has been formed. There is a lithium iron phosphate battery bottom, and there is also a new generation of lithium ion power battery.
Attack and defense of China's power battery
Caijing: What is the development path of power batteries in China?
Ouyang Minggao: Eleventh Five-Year Key Development of Lithium Iron Phosphate Lithium Ion Battery, Twelve Five Key Development of Sanyuan Positive Lithium Ion Battery, 13th Five-Year is focusing on the development of high nickel ternary positive + silicon carbon negative lithium ion battery.
"Finance": Is the research of domestic lithium iron phosphate battery mature? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the ternary lithium battery compared with lithium iron phosphate?
Ouyang Minggao: Lithium iron phosphate battery is the technical bottom line of the electric vehicle revolution. Although the specific capacity is lower than the ternary lithium battery, the lithium iron phosphate battery technology is mature, the materials are abundant, the cost is controllable, and the safety is high. The current advanced iron phosphate Lithium battery, has achieved 500 km driving range on the Tengshi electric car, taking into account safety and economy.
Lithium iron phosphate and ternary are different cathode materials for lithium batteries. Ternary lithium batteries achieve higher specific energy, but there are still problems of safety, raw material cost, and service life. The technical threshold is to encourage technological progress. The safety requirements for lithium-ion batteries are also higher.
"Finance": The ternary lithium battery is now considered to be a mainstream power battery route. Many companies are turning to ternary power battery production with higher energy density and more complicated technology. What is the current state of technology of China's ternary lithium battery? where?
Ouyang Minggao: At present, the specific energy of the battery sample can reach 300 watt-hour/kg. It is a ternary NCM811+ silicon-carbon negative lithium-ion battery, but the safety is especially challenging for over-charge safety. In 2020, 811 positive electrode, silicon The combination of carbon negative electrode and liquid electrolyte may become the mainstream product (some Japanese and Korean battery experts think that 622 positive electrode may be a better choice from the perspective of comprehensive performance balance).
The goal of industrialized ternary soft-packed batteries reaching 300 watt-hours/kg in 2020 is not a problem. The core is that once industrialized large-scale production is implemented, raw materials, production processes, etc. can meet the demand. After the industrialization of 811 lithium-ion batteries, Limited by the cathode material. From an industrial point of view, it is very difficult to achieve 350 watts/kg than the energy.
Caijing: Is high nickelization a development trend?
Ouyang Minggao: High nickel is currently a trend, mainly to reduce the dependence on cobalt, so that the cost is controllable. The decline in the use of cobalt is an inevitable trend.
Caijing: Will China follow the development route of Matsushita of Japan? For example, the development of the 811 lithium battery of the 18650.
Ouyang Minggao: Panasonic's 18650 is easier to achieve high specific energy index because of its small capacity. Small batteries can avoid uneven material, polarization and other problems after volume amplification. But because the electrolyte is easy to dry, the service life is relatively short. However, China will not blindly follow the research path of Panasonic, and the materials are different. China is nickel-cobalt-manganese, Panasonic is nickel-cobalt-aluminum. The safety of nickel-cobalt-aluminum is not good, and manganese is relatively stable.
Caijing: Will lithium-ion batteries be the mainstream route in the medium term?
Ouyang Minggao: Lithium-ion batteries will always be the main products in the medium term, and will not be easily subverted. But positive, negative and electrolyte may change. In addition, lithium air, lithium sulfur, etc. are full of uncertainty, in the automotive field. The prospect of industrialization remains to be seen.
Advantages and disadvantages of China's lithium battery technology
Caijing: At present, the global lithium battery, China, Japan and South Korea have the right to speak, how is this situation formed?
Ouyang Minggao: Mainly because the three countries of China, Japan and Korea all have the industrial base of lithium batteries. Japan and South Korea do not have to say that China's industrial base begins with mobile phone batteries. When lithium battery technology emerged, most of the global car companies are studying fuel. Batteries, not optimistic about the prospects of power batteries. China is also beginning to study fuel cells, but because there is no fuel cell-related industrial base, there is a big gap between basic materials and membrane electrodes and the United States and Japan. Advantages and characteristics of the transportation system, and put forward the 'pure electric drive' strategy with the characteristics of lithium battery first, which is finally in the same camp as Japan and South Korea, and is in the forefront of the world in the industrialization of new energy electric vehicles.
It is difficult for large-scale lithium-ion enterprises to emerge in Europe and America, mainly because of the late start and weak industrial foundation.
Caijing: Why is China's industrial advantage and transportation system conducive to the development of lithium?
Ouyang Minggao: Toyota of Japan has been developing hybrid power on the basis of fuel engines. At that time, it was developing the first two five-year plans for China's new energy vehicles. It also tracked Toyota's focus on hybrid power, and domestic backbone vehicles invested heavily. The strength of the hybrid research and development. By 2008, the domestic hybrid car, especially the hybrid car's demonstration operation is not ideal.
At the same time, lithium-ion battery technology has made breakthroughs since 2007, replacing nickel-metal hydride batteries in a short period of time, making it possible to develop pure electric. Toyota's mixing from fuel cells to fuel cells is actually to raise the technical threshold. Ensure competitive advantage.
China's transportation system has an electric basis, high-speed rail, electric bicycles, electric public transportation, etc., which have made Chinese society a motorized travel feature. At the same time, pure electric vehicle integration technology is relatively difficult, so China is suitable for pure electricity. Application scenario fit, which is the main reason for the rapid development of pure electricity.
Caijing: What is the level of China's lithium battery talent reserves and research in the world?
Ouyang Minggao: I have read a document. In the past 10 years, there have been about 1 million international papers on material research in the world, 40% in mainland China and Taiwan, and twice as many in mainland China as in the United States. It is related to batteries. Most of the batteries in the United States are also Chinese. China's lithium reserve talents and research potential are huge.
Caijing: Is the high-end capacity of China's lithium battery insufficient?
Ouyang Minggao: High-end production capacity is a common problem faced by all industries in China. However, China's battery industry has a high proportion of high-end talents and active technological innovation. For example, the annual output value of the Ningde era is 20 billion, with more than 100 doctors. Car companies, the annual output value of 500 billion is only 50. Such a high talent structure and proportion is completely different from other industries.
"Finance": At present, the domestic lithium battery industry has a low consistency, will it introduce industry standards?
Ouyang Minggao: China's lithium battery standards have set strict safety standards and have clear indicators. The international standards for lithium batteries passed recently have adopted Chinese standards. The safety and specific energy of lithium batteries are contradictory. With technology With the development of technology, lithium battery companies will raise the technical threshold by increasing the specific energy index. Specific energy is an important and effective baton to adjust the structural changes of production capacity, and the low-end production capacity in the market will definitely be eliminated.
"Finance": Ningde era has won the Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz global order big orders. Why are these foreign car companies willing to buy Chinese power batteries at a higher price?
Ouyang Minggao: First of all, the quality of products in Ningde era is comparable to that of LG, and sometimes even better than LG. Secondly, there are no large lithium battery manufacturers in Europe. Third, China is the largest single market for these car companies, such as the global sales of Volkswagen. 40%; Finally, the integrity of China's lithium battery industry chain is better than that of South Korea, and its industrial scale and development potential are also higher than that of South Korea.
Who can break the next generation of batteries?
Caijing: At present, the most popular ternary cathode material is lithium-rich manganese. Why is it a hot spot, what are the advantages and disadvantages?
Ouyang Minggao: Lithium-rich manganese-based cathode material is a hot research topic in the world. The lithium-rich cathode material has a theoretical discharge specific capacity of 400 mAh/g or more, and the specific energy of the battery can reach 400 watt-hours/kg or more. It can reduce the dependence on cobalt and nickel and reduce the cost, especially cobalt. Recently, Professor Xia Dingguo of Peking University synthesized a positive electrode of 400 mAh/g in the laboratory, but the life of lithium-rich manganese-based battery is relatively short.
Now, at home and abroad, a lithium-rich manganese-based lithium battery of 300 watt-hours/kg has been made, but the life span is several hundred times, and it cannot meet the requirements of the vehicle. It needs to continue to work hard. The lithium-rich manganese-based self-voltage decays faster. It is necessary to seek improvement. Secondly, it is necessary to match the lithium-rich manganese-based electrolyte with a wider range of electrolytes, such as solid state.
Caijing: Is there a timetable for the industrialization of lithium-rich manganese?
Ouyang Minggao: In the national special project, the industrialization of 811 ternary lithium battery will be realized by 2020. At the same time, the lithium-rich manganese base will continue to deepen the basic research, because the relevant projects have not yet been completed, and it is impossible to realize the realization of the industry. Accurate time points, fight for around 2025.
The comprehensive comparison of lithium-rich lithium-ion batteries that are expected to be high should be equivalent to 811, even better, and the specific energy should be higher than 811. Durability is a key factor for comparison. If durability can be successfully improved, lithium-rich materials will become Lithium battery new industrialized cathode material.
Caijing: Large car companies have listed solid-state and all-solid-state batteries as the next step in research and development. Where are the difficulties in research and development?
Ouyang Minggao: Although the research of solid electrolytes is already a hot spot, to achieve all-solid-state batteries, the core is to solve the interface problem between solid and solid. At present, it is still necessary to add liquid electrolyte. In the next 5 to 10 years, the proportion of liquid electrolyte will gradually decrease. The trend from partial solid to semi-solid and towards solid state. At that time, even if it is impossible to achieve all solid state, it will be close to all solid state.
Once the solid state is successfully developed, not only the high safety, but also the battery's practice will be completely changed. Because the solid state solves the short circuit problem of the liquid battery, the battery can be connected in series to increase the specific energy. At present, the durability should be guaranteed. Under the premise, the specific energy is raised as much as possible, and the solid-state battery also has the potential of fast charging. Many related research institutions and enterprises in China are studying solid-state lithium battery technology.
Caijing: What is the research status and planning of Japan in the field of solid-state batteries?
Ouyang Minggao: Toyota of Japan has exhibited solid-state lithium-ion batteries. They claim to be industrialized in 2022 or 2023. But the energy has not improved, so the energy will not be too high after industrialization.
Can a fuel cell replace a lithium battery?
Caijing: From pure electricity to fuel cells, what are the main problems in the development of this battery?
Ouyang Minggao: China's fuel cell research has made great progress. Fuel cell vehicles have begun to be industrialized in the local market. The performance of fuel cell systems is optimized. The technology will be relatively mature in 2025. If mass production is realized, the cost will also be decline.
At present, the more important issue is the hydrogen energy technology, that is, the front-end hydrogen fuel, such as preparation, transportation, storage, compression, etc. At present, everyone only pays attention to the fuel cell system itself. But hydrogen-related technologies and infrastructure. It is not ideal. For example, on-board hydrogen storage technology has the following problems: Carbon fiber is costly, hydrogen storage weight is relatively low, and energy loss is relatively large. Therefore, the key is to deepen the basic research and technology development related to hydrogen energy, and related infrastructure. Construction.
Caijing: Fuel cell subsidies have not decreased. Does policy makers believe that fuel cell development is more realistic?
Ouyang Minggao: From the perspective of the country's entire energy system (not just from the perspective of vehicles), hydrogen fuel cell technology does need to accelerate development, which is in line with the needs of China's energy revolution. If the energy requirements reach a certain level, lithium batteries cannot Satisfy.
But I also don't agree that hydrogen is the 'ultimate energy' and that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are the 'ultimate green car'. Hydrogen and electricity are energy carriers, and there is no 'ultimate'. Small cars have lower energy requirements. Lithium batteries may play a bigger role. Therefore, in the case of new energy vehicles, electricity and pure electricity will coexist in the future.
Caijing: For passenger cars, where is the cost balance between future fuel cells and pure electric vehicles?
Ouyang Minggao: Some studies suggest that by 2025, 350 km of mileage for mid-level and above cars may become the balance point between fuel cell vehicles and battery electric vehicles. Miles over 350 km, fuel cell costs are better; within 350 km, Lithium battery has a stronger advantage.
Now China's developed high-speed rail network can fully meet the long-distance travel of the people, so there is not much renewal of the long-life range electric vehicle. In the future, hydrogen energy can be developed to a certain extent, and the fuel cell can be used as a range extender for lithium-ion batteries. Increase the mileage and reduce the amount of battery by electric and electric mixing.