'In the first four months of 2018, China imported 3,200 tons of waste plastics, compared with more than 100,000 tons per month, indicating that China’s imports of waste plastics have basically stopped. 'Senior Petrochemical Corporation, Institute of Economics and Technology Expert Gao Chunyu said.
Since the national promulgated document banned the import of 'waste plastics' in July last year, the 'foreign garbage' has been blocked outside the country. It has already begun to bear fruit. But the price of waste paper has risen after the implementation of the 'forbidden waste' and the plastics industry is worried about raw materials. Price fluctuations have a negative impact on the industry. At this time, the role of 'ballast stone' in plastics futures is highlighted.
Waste plastic imports are stagnant
'China's imports of waste plastics began in 1992-1993, when domestic plastic consumption was developing rapidly, while domestic production was limited and supply shortage. In order to make up for the supply gap, the country began to import waste plastics. By 2005, the import speed increased. It reached a high level in 2012, when it imported 8.87 million tons of waste plastics, of which 4 million tons belonged to polyethylene products, more than 2 million tons belonged to PP products, and some products such as polypropylene. From 2013 to 2017 A large decline, China's waste plastic imports are probably maintained at more than 7 million tons. ' Gao Chunyu said.
On July 27, 2017, the General Office of the State Council issued the “Implementation Plan for the Reform of the Import Management System for the Prohibition of Foreign Waste Entry into the Solid Waste”. The relevant parts of the plastics industry are: Adjust the catalogue of imported solid waste management by the end of July 2017; 2017 Before the end of the year, it is forbidden to import waste plastics from domestic sources, waste paper without sorting, textile waste, vanadium slag and other varieties.
On April 19 this year, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued the “Announcement on Adjustments”, requesting the transfer of industrial-derived waste plastics from the Catalogue of Solid Wastes Restricted Imports as Raw Materials. The Catalogue of Prohibited Imports of Solid Waste has been implemented since December 31, 2018. This means that the era of waste plastics imports is coming to an end.
What is the impact of the 'prohibition of waste' on the supply and demand of the domestic plastics industry?
According to customs data, in 2016, domestic imports of waste plastics were 7.35 million tons, including 2.53 million tons of polyethylene waste, 2.53 million tons of PET waste, 450,000 tons of PVC (6770, -50.00, -0.73%), and styrene waste. 90,000 tons, other waste plastics 1.74 million tons (estimated to be about 900,000 tons of PP waste). According to 2016, the apparent consumption of polyethylene, polypropylene and PVC was 23.83 million tons, 21.28 million tons and 16.39 million tons respectively. It is estimated that the proportion of imported waste plastics to domestic apparent consumption is: 11% for polyethylene, about 4% for polypropylene, and 3% for PVC.
Guo Yongxin, deputy secretary-general of the China National Light Industry Council, pointed out that in 2016, the recovered plastics were 18.78 million tons, and the imported waste plastics were 7.35 million tons. In 2016, the processing volume was 77.17 million tons. 'One third of the plastics used are waste plastics. Raw materials, import substitution of 7.35 million tons, if prohibited, account for one-tenth of the current total output value. One-tenth of the raw materials will have a relatively large impact on the industry pattern.
Be aware of the fluctuations in raw material prices
'The reduction or cancellation of waste plastics will lead to an increase in the price of recycled plastics in the country, driving the rise of the entire raw materials industry.' Guo Yongxin said.
This is evident in the soaring price of waste paper. The average price of corrugated paper has increased from 3,105 yuan/ton on October 14, 2016 to 5,713 yuan/ton in October 2017, affected by the related 'forbidden waste'. %.
'The paper industry is also heavily dependent on foreign waste paper and raw materials. After the introduction of the ban, the domestic waste paper rose, and the domestic pulp price rose, forming a trend of global prices rising together. So a little fluctuation of raw materials may be the pattern of the entire industry. A big impact will be formed. This year we will also pay more attention to the ban on imports of waste plastics. The ban on solid waste in 2018 will change the pattern of the world, and will also affect our industrial structure. 'Guo Yongxin said.
On December 26, 2017, the quantity of the first batch of imported waste plastics was announced in 2018, which was significantly shrinking compared with 2017. As a result, polyolefins increased their positions significantly, and the spot market followed the upward trend. But as of now, polyolefins as a whole The market performance is relatively stable.
Everbright Securities (Hong Kong stocks 06178) pointed out that according to the deduction of polyester filament yarn production of about 13.5 million tons in 2016, PET imported waste accounts for about 19% of production. From the perspective of supply reduction, 'ban' will give PET, PE and PP. The supply and demand structure has a positive impact.
It pointed out that the recycled chemical fiber market will be greatly affected, and it is expected to increase the operating rate of raw staple fiber and polyester raw materials. Imported recycled PET volume accounts for more than 30% of the domestic recycled PET market, assuming that the 'ban' affects most imported waste PET. The impact on the recycled polyester market is large, and the gap is expected to be filled by virgin polyester. Recycled polyester is mainly used to produce polyester staple fiber, and 'ban' is expected to enhance domestic new staple fiber and polyester raw material PTA (5896, 32.00, 0.55%) and MEG industry operating rate. At the same time, the demand for new materials such as polyethylene and polypropylene is expected to increase, but it is only a substitute.
Helping the industry 'ballast stone'
Zhao Jungui, vice president and secretary general of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said: 'China's petrochemical industry is steadily moving towards a new stage of high quality development. At the same time, we are also clearly aware that the industry's sustainable development capacity is still not strong, and the pressure remains Great, the driving force for innovation needs to be further enhanced, affecting the uncertainty of the stable operation of the industry, and there are still many deep-seated contradictions.
'Be wary of large fluctuations in market prices. Recently, crude oil prices have risen sharply, hitting new highs in recent years. As a result, prices of commodities such as coal and petrochemicals have risen, and market uncertainties have increased. The current world economic growth and From the perspective of the demand for domestic petrochemical products, the foundation for supporting the current high-priced operation is still not solid. Maintaining the balanced development of the upstream and downstream of the petrochemical industry and preventing the ups and downs of prices is an important task for the macroeconomic operation of China's petrochemical industry. 'Zhao Jungui pointed out.
Zhao Jungui said that China is not only the world's largest plastics consumption and consumption country, but also one of the world's largest growth potential of plastics consumption, the fastest growing market, the world's plastic raw materials diversification, low carbonization, international development is profoundly changing the world's emerging The pattern of the market.
In recent years, the pricing model based on futures prices has gradually become the mainstream of the plastics industry. Based on futures tools, market risk is also integrated into the daily operations of enterprises. As the market understands the deepening of futures tools, the way the plastics industry participates in futures Traditional hedging has gradually evolved into new models such as OTC options and benchmark trade. The combination is now more flexible and close. 'General Director of Industrial Development Department of Dashang said Jiang Wei.
At present, the function of the plastics futures market of the Dachs has been effectively utilized and has been deeply integrated into the overall transformation of the domestic plastics industry. On the one hand, the current price correlations of the three LLDPE, PVC and PP futures varieties in 2017 are 0.92, 0.96 and 0.97 respectively. The futures price has further served as the 'barometer' and 'wind vane' of the plastics industry. On the other hand, the hedging efficiency of the three major plastic futures varieties is getting better and better, and the 2017 hedging rate is maintained at around 90%. Good level, the role of the 'ballast stone' in the plastics industry is highlighted.
'I hope that the petrochemical industry and the futures industry, friends in the financial sector will further strengthen exchanges and cooperation, gradually improve the price system of plastic futures and related products, study and formulate supporting policies and measures that will help to absorb and encourage the real economy to participate in the futures market, and guide futures. The company and the futures market will better serve the real economy, effectively link and expand the OTC market, jointly shape the price influence and international influence of the Chinese plastics market, and work together to build a world-class Chinese plastics industry system. 'Zhao Jungui said.