Shi Lei believes that Moore's Law has been developed to this day and has been terminated. The chip width has been reduced to nanometers, and the chip can no longer be reduced. This means that the chances of latecomers will be more. The so-called Moore's Law refers to When the price is constant, the number of components that can be accommodated on the integrated circuit will double every 18-24 months, and the performance will be doubled.
'The emergence of quantum computers means the emergence of infinite computing power. In the IC industry, we are focusing on two areas that will give a huge impetus to integrated circuits. The first is the Internet of Things, the Internet of Everything, will provide The emergence of many new morphological chips; the second will promote the development of the chip is artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence hardware acceleration, artificial intelligence framework structure changes will also appear some new chip companies, what will appear in the new chip companies What? Intelligent or semi-customized architecture. '
Shi Lei believes that in the future, artificial intelligence as a programmable FPGA chip may exceed the chip made by human beings, which is estimated to be realized in two or three years.
Relative to the high valuation of chips in the Chinese market, foreign companies have not been highly valued by chip companies. Shi Lei believes that the main reasons for this phenomenon are two:
The first is the fierce competition of chip products, and the product replacement cycle is short. When a successful chip quickly takes over the market, but often a new challenge chip will appear soon, that is, the boxing effect. According to the business school's point of view, valuation There is continuity. Once the continuity is destroyed, the valuation of the chip is problematic.
The second problem is that the uncertainty of the chip is too great. The success of the chip is actually accidental. It is not the success of the indicator, but the industry interaction, the greater the risk of valuation. The black hole of investment is reasonable.
So, how to explain the rising valuation of China's chip industry in these years or the good performance of the capital market?
Shi Lei believes that it is very likely that the integrated circuit and the whole machine are matched. The inertia or stickiness of Chinese integrated circuits is much larger than that of international integrated circuits. 'China has a large number of licenses and certifications, so that even if there is New products come out, old products are also difficult to exit. What are the benefits? For capital, you can take a breather.