Recently, the "Lithium Battery Industry Development White Paper" released by China Electric Vehicles 100 People's Conference shows that the total manufacturing capacity of global electric vehicles and energy storage lithium-ion batteries is expected to reach 200 GWh in 2017, and most of the production capacity is concentrated. China.
At the same time, in 2017, the capacity of lithium batteries in China's major enterprises was about 124GWh, which is expected to reach 180GWh by the end of 2018, and the production capacity of major enterprises is basically over 8GWh, but the utilization rate is generally lower than 40%.
With the development of the battery industry, the problem of insufficient utilization of production capacity has become more and more prominent. Industry experts said that at present, China's power battery market has a phenomenon of tight supply and overcapacity.
Overcapacity, market concentration to dominant enterprises
In the past six months, the Ningde era, with power battery as its main source of income, was successfully listed. According to incomplete statistics, there are as many as 100 domestic power battery related investment projects in 2017, with a total investment of more than 215.9 billion yuan, involving upstream resources and materials. , midstream battery production and equipment and downstream recycling.
On the one hand, capital is favored, on the one hand, the market polarization is obvious, high-end high-quality production capacity is insufficient, and low-end production capacity is insufficient, showing structural overcapacity.
'In the current domestic automobile industry chain, the development of batteries is the most advanced. There are still many shortcomings in other areas. However, with the increase in production capacity, there has also been a problem of investment simplification. 'In China (Qinghai) Lithium held recently At the International Summit Forum on Industry and Power Batteries, Zhang Yongwei, Secretary General and Chief Expert of China Electric Vehicles 100 People, once again called on the industry to be alert to the phenomenon of 'investment blurring', which will lead to some unrealistically competitive production capacity. It is the biggest advantage, but it is difficult to cross the threshold of building competition without capacity. This is a double-edged sword.
Although the capacity of power battery companies is increasing year by year, the number of companies that can stand firm is decreasing. The data shows that China's power battery supporting enterprises have dropped from about 150 in 2015 to around 100 in 2017, 1/3 The company has been eliminated.
Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, said that the global power battery market has been occupied by several major companies. In 2017, the top ten companies accounted for 80% of the shipments, and the market will further concentrate on the dominant enterprises, small and low level. The power battery company will be eliminated in the competition.
In view of the current overcapacity situation in the power battery industry, Huang Shilin, vice chairman of Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., predicts that overcapacity in the industry may continue beyond 2020. How to optimize production capacity and improve technology level is necessary for research in the next two or three years. Important topic.
Collaborative Operations Industry Consolidation to the Future
In recent years, the prices of upstream materials such as lithium and cobalt have risen rapidly, and car companies have to transfer costs because of the subsidies for purchase subsidies, which puts battery companies under double pressure.
However, the long-term pressure and competition do not stop there. At present, the global competition of power batteries is increasingly fierce, Chinese enterprises will gradually expand from the domestic market to the international market, and Japanese and Korean companies will further exert their efforts in the Chinese market. China will become The main battlefield of power battery competition. Chen Qingtai reminded that although European and American companies lost their position in this round of competition, they are already laying out the layout for the next stage of competition, which is a potential strong competitor.
'The scale of production is only a shallow level of competition. The most important thing is to constantly improve its competitive position. It is the core technology, and has the ability to continuously create core technologies. Battery companies must produce a generation with a global vision, develop a generation, and pre-research a generation. Chen Qingtai said that the key is to condense outstanding talents and maintain sufficient R&D investment. Battery companies should cooperate with universities and research institutes to carry out basic research on power batteries with state support.
Nowadays, the relationship between battery companies and vehicle companies is no longer a pure relationship between supply and demand. More and more companies choose deeper strategic cooperation. Zhang Hailiang, chairman of Zhejiang Dianjia Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. believes that power battery manufacturers should be allowed. From the front-end intervention, participate in research and development design with the OEM, let the battery manufacturers fully understand the supporting needs of the OEM; the vehicle companies need to abandon the inherent relationship between the OEM and the supplier, and become a close cooperation partner. Together to promote the iterative and evolution of battery technology.
'China's technology and application innovation in the battery field is the fastest, but the source innovation, the basic innovation is lacking.' In Zhang Yongwei's view, the biggest problem in the battery industry is not only insufficient investment, but also lack of basic innovation. Institutions doing basic research often do not care much about the needs of the market. The production, learning, and research chains have not yet been opened up, and they have not taken on the heavy responsibility of public technology basic research given by the state. This may be a hidden worry for the industry's lack of innovation in the future.
In the face of grim reality, it is obviously unrealistic to require individual power suppliers to be independent. It is imperative to strengthen the synergy between industry and enterprises. In Chen Qingtai's view, battery companies should enhance their ability to integrate the industry chain through strategic cooperation. , alliance cooperation and joint ventures and other methods, and deep cooperation with R & D institutions, core materials, vehicle recycling and ladder utilization, to ensure the continuous improvement of China's power battery technology.
