In the first half of 2018, although the domestic phenol market has experienced ups and downs, it has greatly improved compared with the overall trend in the first half of 2017. Especially at the beginning of the second quarter, driven by the centralized maintenance of domestic phenolic ketone devices, the market talks quickly increased in the short term. The high-level talks in the East China market have approached the highest point in 2017.
From the comparison chart of the price trend of Huadong phenol market in the first half of 2017-2018, whether it is from the highest price, the lowest price and the average price, the phenol market trend in the first half of 2018 is higher than the same period in 2017. According to Jinlian Data Monitoring, in the first half of 2018, from the perspective of fluctuations, taking the East China market as an example, the highest point reached 10,650 yuan / ton, the lowest point was 8,800 yuan / ton, the total price difference was 1,850 yuan / ton, the average price in the first half of the year was 9576 yuan / ton; the highest point in the first half of 2017 was 9,000 yuan / ton, the lowest point was 6,400 yuan / ton, the average price in the first half of the year was 7213 yuan / ton.
From the overall trend of the domestic phenol market in the first half of 2018, it can be roughly divided into three stages: 'down-up-down'.
The first stage (from early January to mid-March): Negotiating low-cost consumption
Due to the continuous speculation in the second half of 2017, the phenol market reached a level of over 10,000 yuan at the beginning of 2018, but the downstream factory costs were passed on to the terminal, and after entering the heating period, the shortage of natural gas supply was particularly prominent. The level of start-up of small-scale enterprises is limited, and demand is slow to follow. In addition, in order to meet the Spring Festival holiday, some downstream factories choose to park in advance, especially after the post-holiday resumption of work, until the fifteenth day of the first month, the phenol social stocks continue to accumulate, supply and demand fundamentals. Under the partial fatigue, the market talks gradually declined. As the low price of the East China phenol market hit the level of 8,800 yuan/ton, some of the downstream factories were able to cover their positions on the dips, and the overall profit margin of the petrochemical enterprises narrowed compared with the previous period. 1. After the Spring Festival to mid-March, the market is mostly in the stage of low-cost consumption of stocks.
The second stage (late March to the end of April): Anti-dumping investigations combined with phenolic ketone plant centralized maintenance
First, after the low-priced goods in March, the cumulative inventory of petrochemical enterprises has gradually digested since the Spring Festival, and the start-up situation of downstream factories has gradually improved. Secondly, on March 26, it was native to the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The import of phenol was investigated in anti-dumping investigations. The atmosphere of speculation in the market gradually increased, and the industry was cautiously optimistic. In addition, the routine maintenance of domestic phenolic ketone devices during the year was concentrated in April and May, and Mitsui Chemicals' phenol in Singapore was located in Singapore. The ketone unit was shut down for maintenance in early April until the end of May. The repair of the PTT phenolic ketone plant in Thailand was also placed in the second quarter. In addition, India’s Deepak Phenolics company’s new phenolic ketone plant in Dahej Gujarat was put into production in June, and demand in India was strong. Anti-dumping investigation report Continuous fermentation, tight supply, and improved demand have all become favorable factors for the rapid rise of the phenol market. The phenol market talks quickly pulled up. By the end of April, some negotiations in East China reached a high level of 10600-10650 yuan/ton.
The third stage (early May to the end of June): The environmental protection pressure is falling
At the beginning of May, following the HSBC stock incident, it was revealed that there were private sewage disposals from enterprises, and Lianyungang was flooding the clouds. The chemical parks in Guannan were completely shut down. Since May 30, six central environmental protection inspectors have successively stationed in Hebei. Jiangsu, Henan, Guangdong, and other 10 provinces (districts), carry out environmental protection inspections 'look back', for one month. Environmentally strict inspection, downstream traditional abrasive abrasives, refractory materials, phenolic plywood, foam board and insulation board, etc. Insufficient, especially during the Shanghe Summit held in Qingdao, some of the downstream phenol plants around Shandong have a certain downside or parking situation, and the demand side is relatively weak, but the domestic phenolic ketone plant has been overhauled during the year. The load has increased compared with the previous period. In addition, the production capacity of the newly built phenolic ketone unit of China Shipping Shell has been released, and the pressure on supply and demand has increased. The market talks have been in a state of tumbling. As of the end of June, there has been no clear signal to stop the market negotiations. bottom.
Market outlook
For the market trend in the third quarter, the industry is still difficult to have more optimistic expectations, mainly focusing on the recovery of downstream demand and the start of the phenol-ketone plant. From the supply side, the domestic phenolic ketone plant has been routinely overhauled during the year, and there is no A clearer maintenance plan, the Zhonghai Shell phenolic ketone plant has entered the normal operation stage, and the supply side is relatively loose. On the demand side, the environmental protection investigation is still continuing, and the recovery of downstream demand remains to be further concerned, and in July and August, The weather is hot, still in the off-season demand for phenol, and India's Deepak Phenolics company's new phenolic ketone plant in Dahej Gujarat has been put into production, and the supply of goods to the Indian region will be reduced. In general, the supply and demand fundamentals are weak, the market is still weak. There must be a lower space, but considering that the current price is relatively low during the year, and the overall profit margin of the phenol-ketone plant is declining, the market will have a certain rebound opportunity after the low shock around 8800-8900 yuan/ton. The market still needs to pay close attention to the recovery and supply of downstream demand. Surface device changes.